HarrisDemocratic22.6%704TrumpRepublican75.5%2,350OliverLibertarian1.1%34
R+52.9- Lead
- 1,646
- Total
- 3,112
- vs nation
- R+51.4
- Turnout
- 60.5%
Akashiccounty
Pembina County, ND
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 60.5% of 5,210 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic23.6%786TrumpRepublican73.9%2,460JorgensenLibertarian2.0%66
R+50.3- Lead
- 1,674
- Total
- 3,331
- vs nation
- R+54.7
- Turnout
- 63.3%
ClintonDemocratic21.6%681TrumpRepublican70.0%2,208JohnsonLibertarian5.3%167
R+48.4- Lead
- 1,527
- Total
- 3,153
- vs nation
- R+50.5
- Turnout
- 58.2%
ObamaDemocratic38.5%1,253RomneyRepublican58.3%1,899OtherAll other candidates3.2%103
R+19.8- Lead
- 646
- Total
- 3,255
- vs nation
- R+23.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic45.2%1,494McCainRepublican52.1%1,722OtherAll other candidates2.8%91
R+6.9- Lead
- 228
- Total
- 3,307
- vs nation
- R+14.2
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic34.3%1,321BushRepublican64.0%2,466OtherAll other candidates1.8%69
R+29.7- Lead
- 1,145
- Total
- 3,856
- vs nation
- R+27.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic28.9%1,093BushRepublican64.3%2,430NaderGreen2.9%110
R+35.4- Lead
- 1,337
- Total
- 3,779
- vs nation
- R+35.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic36.2%1,191DoleRepublican50.9%1,678PerotReform12.1%400
R+14.8- Lead
- 487
- Total
- 3,294
- vs nation
- R+23.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+52.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 6,7272024 5-year
- Population density
- 6.0 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,119 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $68,3932024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.4 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Griggs County, ND · twin score 89.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 60.5%3,154 participants ÷ 5,210 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.1%–50.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,228 | 5,543 | 58.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,988 | 5,444 | 54.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,359 | 5,310 | 63.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,483 | 5,303 | 46.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,154 | 5,210 | 60.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Pembina County, ND · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
65.0%
3,636 votes · D+30.9
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 63.9%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
75.5%
2,350 votes · R+52.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 73.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
4,139votes
63.9% of the vote · D+32.4
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 3,711 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
4,012votes
67.5% of the vote · R+35.7
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 3,925 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+13.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+30.9 · U.S. D+17.8
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +9.5 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+54.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+50.3 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +51.4 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−1 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −920 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $59,400 in average income, against $102,776 for residents who stayed — 42% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+18.0 on average — 35 points more Democratic-leaning than Pembina County, ND itself (R+52.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Grand Forks County, ND21R+18.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Grand Forks County, ND32
- Cass County, ND29
- Walsh County, ND21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −62 |
| 2012 | −137 |
| 2013 | −105 |
| 2014 | −36 |
| 2015 | −74 |
| 2016 | −22 |
| 2017 | −124 |
| 2018 | −70 |
| 2019 | −94 |
| 2021 | −33 |
| 2022 | +1 |
| 2023 | −71 |
| 2024 | −92 |
| 2025 | −1 |
Pembina sits along the Manitoba line where sugar beets and grain dominate the economy, and its presidential margins have exceeded 50 points in recent cycles, reflecting a rural, agriculture-dependent electorate with little urban counterweight.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.4 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 52.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 52.9 points.
A population of 6,727, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,393 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Griggs County and Bottineau County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Griggs County
North Dakota
89.2twin score
elasticity12-yr trendNorwegian ancestry≠ median age
Bottineau County
North Dakota
86.3twin score
elasticityNorwegian ancestry2020–2024 trajectory≠ Polish ancestry
Marshall County
Minnesota
85.8twin score
12-yr trendelasticityNorwegian ancestry≠ Polish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Pembina County, North Dakota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/38067/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Pembina County, North Dakota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Pembina County, North Dakota voted Republican by 52.9 points (R+52.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,112 votes cast, 704 went Democratic and 2,350 went Republican.
When did Pembina County, North Dakota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Pembina County, North Dakota voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Pembina County, North Dakota?
Pembina County, North Dakota has a population of 6,727 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pembina County, North Dakota?
Median household income in Pembina County, North Dakota is $68,393 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Dakota state median is $76,657.
What is the political history of Pembina County, North Dakota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Pembina County, North Dakota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.