HarrisDemocratic32.3%9,452TrumpRepublican66.2%19,403KennedyIndependent0.7%197
R+34.0- Lead
- 9,951
- Total
- 29,307
- vs nation
- R+32.5
- Turnout
- 66.2%
Akashiccounty
St. Joseph County, MI
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 66.2% of 44,564 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic33.2%9,262TrumpRepublican64.9%18,127JorgensenLibertarian1.5%416
R+31.7- Lead
- 8,865
- Total
- 27,936
- vs nation
- R+36.2
- Turnout
- 63.3%
ClintonDemocratic31.4%7,526TrumpRepublican62.1%14,884JohnsonLibertarian3.9%934
R+30.7- Lead
- 7,358
- Total
- 23,967
- vs nation
- R+32.8
- Turnout
- 54.6%
ObamaDemocratic43.1%10,112RomneyRepublican55.4%12,978Goode,Ust0.5%113
R+12.2- Lead
- 2,866
- Total
- 23,445
- vs nation
- R+16.1
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic47.9%12,322McCainRepublican50.1%12,886OtherAll other candidates1.9%494
R+2.2- Lead
- 564
- Total
- 25,702
- vs nation
- R+9.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic38.2%9,648BushRepublican60.8%15,340OtherAll other candidates1.0%251
R+22.6- Lead
- 5,692
- Total
- 25,239
- vs nation
- R+20.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic38.9%8,574BushRepublican58.6%12,906NaderGreen2.0%434
R+19.7- Lead
- 4,332
- Total
- 22,024
- vs nation
- R+20.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic41.0%8,529DoleRepublican47.0%9,764PerotReform11.2%2,319
R+5.9- Lead
- 1,235
- Total
- 20,794
- vs nation
- R+14.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+34.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 60,9692024 5-year
- Median household income
- $66,4252024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+18.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.7 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Madison County, IN · twin score 87.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 66.2%29,480 participants ÷ 44,564 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 52.1%–55.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 24,175 | 44,268 | 54.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 20,778 | 44,329 | 46.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 28,125 | 44,397 | 63.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 22,060 | 44,744 | 49.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 29,480 | 44,564 | 66.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
46 precincts · 29,307 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Lockport Township, Precinct 1Lockport Township, Precinct 1 | 805 | 1,326 | 33 | 2,164 | 37.2% | 61.3% | R+24.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Fabius Township, Precinct 1Fabius Township, Precinct 1 | 697 | 1,340 | 25 | 2,062 | 33.8% | 65.0% | R+31.2 |
| Precinct -White Pigeon Township, Precinct 1White Pigeon Township, Precinct 1 | 549 | 1,410 | 24 | 1,983 | 27.7% | 71.1% | R+43.4 |
| Precinct -Sherman Township, Precinct 1Sherman Township, Precinct 1 | 519 | 1,296 | 32 | 1,847 | 28.1% | 70.2% | R+42.1 |
| Precinct -Nottawa Township, Precinct 1Nottawa Township, Precinct 1 | 568 | 1,196 | 30 | 1,794 | 31.7% | 66.7% | R+35.0 |
| Precinct -City of Three Rivers, Precinct 2City of Three Rivers, Precinct 2 | 711 | 904 | 26 | 1,641 | 43.3% | 55.1% | R+11.8 |
| Precinct -Colon Township, Precinct 1Colon Township, Precinct 1 | 432 | 1,155 | 25 | 1,612 | 26.8% | 71.7% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -Mendon Township, Precinct 1Mendon Township, Precinct 1 | 518 | 1,055 | 18 | 1,591 | 32.6% | 66.3% | R+33.8 |
| Precinct -City of Three Rivers, Precinct 1City of Three Rivers, Precinct 1 | 740 | 798 | 37 | 1,575 | 47.0% | 50.7% | R+3.7 |
| Precinct -City of Sturgis, Precinct 1City of Sturgis, Precinct 1 | 528 | 835 | 29 | 1,392 | 37.9% | 60.0% | R+22.1 |
| Precinct -Park Township, Precinct 1Park Township, Precinct 1 | 444 | 928 | 14 | 1,386 | 32.0% | 67.0% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -Burr Oak Township, Precinct 1Burr Oak Township, Precinct 1 | 294 | 943 | 12 | 1,249 | 23.5% | 75.5% | R+52.0 |
| Precinct -Constantine Township, Precinct 1Constantine Township, Precinct 1 | 322 | 805 | 18 | 1,145 | 28.1% | 70.3% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -City of Sturgis, Precinct 4City of Sturgis, Precinct 4 | 407 | 584 | 11 | 1,002 | 40.6% | 58.3% | R+17.7 |
| Precinct -Flowerfield Township, Precinct 1Flowerfield Township, Precinct 1 | 270 | 694 | 10 | 974 | 27.7% | 71.3% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct -Sturgis Township, Precinct 1Sturgis Township, Precinct 1 | 272 | 650 | 22 | 944 | 28.8% | 68.9% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct -Constantine Township, Precinct 2Constantine Township, Precinct 2 | 209 | 572 | 17 | 798 | 26.2% | 71.7% | R+45.5 |
| Precinct -Fawn River Township, Precinct 1Fawn River Township, Precinct 1 | 205 | 574 | 12 | 791 | 25.9% | 72.6% | R+46.6 |
| Precinct -City of Sturgis, Precinct 3City of Sturgis, Precinct 3 | 237 | 475 | 23 | 735 | 32.2% | 64.6% | R+32.4 |
| Precinct -Mottville Township, Precinct 1Mottville Township, Precinct 1 | 177 | 538 | 8 | 723 | 24.5% | 74.4% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct -City of Sturgis, Precinct 2City of Sturgis, Precinct 2 | 276 | 398 | 16 | 690 | 40.0% | 57.7% | R+17.7 |
| Precinct -Florence Township, Precinct 1Florence Township, Precinct 1 | 137 | 488 | 5 | 630 | 21.7% | 77.5% | R+55.7 |
| Precinct -Leonidas Township, Precinct 1Leonidas Township, Precinct 1 | 135 | 439 | 5 | 579 | 23.3% | 75.8% | R+52.5 |
| 1491194000001149-11940-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1491737000001149-17370-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1491786000001149-17860-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1491786000002149-17860-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1492692000001149-26920-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1492754000001149-27540-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1492906000001149-29060-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1492914000001149-29140-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1494702000001149-47020-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1494906000001149-49060-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1495300000001149-53000-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1495578000001149-55780-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1495940000001149-59400-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1496248000001149-62480-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497330000001149-73300-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497696000001149-76960-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497696000002149-76960-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497696000003149-76960-00003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497696000004149-76960-00004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497698000001149-76980-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497976000001149-79760-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1497976000002149-79760-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1498694000001149-86940-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −6.0% |
| 1896 | +10.8% |
| 1900 | +1.6% |
| 1904 | −24.1% |
| 1908 | −10.6% |
| 1912 | +18.1% |
| 1916 | +6.3% |
| 1920 | −39.9% |
| 1924 | −50.1% |
| 1928 | −52.7% |
| 1932 | +10.0% |
| 1936 | −8.1% |
| 1940 | −32.9% |
| 1944 | −39.4% |
| 1948 | −34.1% |
| 1952 | −45.5% |
| 1956 | −48.6% |
| 1960 | −38.6% |
| 1964 | +11.9% |
| 1968 | −28.5% |
| 1972 | −40.7% |
| 1976 | −23.2% |
| 1980 | −33.9% |
| 1984 | −45.1% |
| 1988 | −30.0% |
| 1992 | −8.4% |
| 1996 | −5.9% |
| 2000 | −19.7% |
| 2004 | −22.6% |
| 2008 | −2.2% |
| 2012 | −12.2% |
| 2016 | −30.7% |
| 2020 | −31.7% |
| 2024 | −34.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 43,970 |
| 2018 | 43,625 |
| 2020 | 47,498 |
| 2022 | 48,715 |
| 2024 | 50,269 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−74 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,074 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $57,271 in average income, against $69,870 for residents who stayed — 18% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.7 on average — 20 points more Democratic-leaning than St. Joseph County, MI itself (R+34.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Kalamazoo County, MI259D+17.7
- Elkhart County, IN124R+32.4
- Cass County, MI98R+33.9
- LaGrange County, IN91R+56.8
- Branch County, MI83R+42.4
- Calhoun County, MI42R+14.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Kalamazoo County, MI247
- Elkhart County, IN108
- Branch County, MI103
- Cass County, MI89
- LaGrange County, IN77
- Calhoun County, MI45
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −485 |
| 2012 | −415 |
| 2013 | −203 |
| 2014 | −136 |
| 2015 | −393 |
| 2016 | −175 |
| 2017 | −137 |
| 2018 | +33 |
| 2019 | −113 |
| 2021 | −79 |
| 2022 | +40 |
| 2023 | +133 |
| 2024 | −70 |
| 2025 | −74 |
St. Joseph County's R+34 margin in 2024 reflects a largely rural, manufacturing-rooted electorate that has shifted decisively toward Republican candidates over the past two decades, mirroring trends across Michigan's southern tier.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 18.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 52.7 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 34.0 points.
A population of 60,969, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,425 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Madison County and Henry County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Madison County
Indiana
87.1twin score
12-yr trend2008 margin% Catholic≠ elasticity
Henry County
Indiana
84.2twin score
2008 margincollege share% Black≠ elasticity
Gratiot County
Michigan
84.2twin score
elasticity12-yr trend2008 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
St. Joseph County, Michigan. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/26149/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in St. Joseph County
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Frequently asked questions
How did St. Joseph County, Michigan vote in 2024?
In 2024, St. Joseph County, Michigan voted Republican by 34.0 points (R+34.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 29,307 votes cast, 9,452 went Democratic and 19,403 went Republican.
When did St. Joseph County, Michigan last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which St. Joseph County, Michigan voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in St. Joseph County, Michigan?
St. Joseph County, Michigan has a population of 60,969 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in St. Joseph County, Michigan?
Median household income in St. Joseph County, Michigan is $66,425 — below the national median of $80,734. The Michigan state median is $72,875.
What is the political history of St. Joseph County, Michigan?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in St. Joseph County, Michigan from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 28 went Republican.