HarrisDemocratic17.0%1,632TrumpRepublican81.7%7,847KennedyIndependent1.3%122
R+64.7- Lead
- 6,215
- Total
- 9,601
- vs nation
- R+63.3
- Turnout
- 58.4%
Akashiccounty
Fayette County, IL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.4% of 16,873 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic18.1%1,826TrumpRepublican79.9%8,055JorgensenLibertarian1.1%113
R+61.8- Lead
- 6,229
- Total
- 10,076
- vs nation
- R+66.3
- Turnout
- 60.3%
ClintonDemocratic19.0%1,819TrumpRepublican76.9%7,372JohnsonLibertarian3.0%283
R+57.9- Lead
- 5,553
- Total
- 9,591
- vs nation
- R+60.0
- Turnout
- 55.7%
ObamaDemocratic31.7%2,853RomneyRepublican66.0%5,951JOHNSONLibertarian1.3%118
R+34.4- Lead
- 3,098
- Total
- 9,012
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic41.0%3,967McCainRepublican56.8%5,499OtherAll other candidates2.2%214
R+15.8- Lead
- 1,532
- Total
- 9,680
- vs nation
- R+23.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic37.4%3,571BushRepublican61.6%5,880OtherAll other candidates1.0%98
R+24.2- Lead
- 2,309
- Total
- 9,549
- vs nation
- R+21.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic41.6%3,886BushRepublican55.7%5,200NaderGreen1.3%122
R+14.1- Lead
- 1,314
- Total
- 9,338
- vs nation
- R+14.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.2%3,887DoleRepublican44.1%3,881PerotReform11.0%964
D+0.1- Lead
- 6
- Total
- 8,792
- vs nation
- R+8.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+64.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 21,3152024 5-year
- Median household income
- $60,9442024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+21.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Pike County, IL · twin score 93.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.4%9,861 participants ÷ 16,873 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.2 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -9.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 46.2%–47.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 9,591 | 17,207 | 55.7% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 8,045 | 17,138 | 46.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 10,159 | 16,857 | 60.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 8,156 | 16,969 | 48.1% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 9,861 | 16,873 | 58.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
60 precincts · 9,681 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -AVENAAVENA | 159 | 670 | 17 | 846 | 18.8% | 79.2% | R+60.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -RAMSEYRAMSEY | 150 | 655 | 21 | 826 | 18.2% | 79.3% | R+61.1 |
| Precinct -OTEGOOTEGO | 68 | 562 | 11 | 641 | 10.6% | 87.7% | R+77.1 |
| Precinct -LOUDONLOUDON | 64 | 464 | 13 | 541 | 11.8% | 85.8% | R+73.9 |
| Precinct -SHARONSHARON | 114 | 417 | 7 | 538 | 21.2% | 77.5% | R+56.3 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 8VANDALIA 8 | 95 | 379 | 7 | 481 | 19.8% | 78.8% | R+59.0 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 6VANDALIA 6 | 97 | 339 | 14 | 450 | 21.6% | 75.3% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 7VANDALIA 7 | 84 | 325 | 11 | 420 | 20.0% | 77.4% | R+57.4 |
| Precinct -LACLEDELACLEDE | 52 | 335 | 5 | 392 | 13.3% | 85.5% | R+72.2 |
| Precinct -LONE GROVELONE GROVE | 43 | 300 | 8 | 351 | 12.3% | 85.5% | R+73.2 |
| Precinct -BEAR GROVEBEAR GROVE | 45 | 278 | 6 | 329 | 13.7% | 84.5% | R+70.8 |
| Precinct -SEFTONSEFTON | 39 | 278 | 9 | 326 | 12.0% | 85.3% | R+73.3 |
| Precinct -SEMINARYSEMINARY | 36 | 265 | 10 | 311 | 11.6% | 85.2% | R+73.6 |
| Precinct -WHEATLANDWHEATLAND | 41 | 248 | 7 | 296 | 13.9% | 83.8% | R+69.9 |
| Precinct -KASKASKIAKASKASKIA | 46 | 235 | 3 | 284 | 16.2% | 82.7% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 9VANDALIA 9 | 78 | 189 | 7 | 274 | 28.5% | 69.0% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -SHAFTERSHAFTER | 51 | 217 | 4 | 272 | 18.8% | 79.8% | R+61.0 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 2VANDALIA 2 | 57 | 209 | 4 | 270 | 21.1% | 77.4% | R+56.3 |
| Precinct -BOWLING GREENBOWLING GREEN | 37 | 212 | 5 | 254 | 14.6% | 83.5% | R+68.9 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 4VANDALIA 4 | 47 | 199 | 3 | 249 | 18.9% | 79.9% | R+61.0 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 3VANDALIA 3 | 40 | 197 | 5 | 242 | 16.5% | 81.4% | R+64.9 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 5VANDALIA 5 | 51 | 155 | 3 | 209 | 24.4% | 74.2% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct -VANDALIA 1VANDALIA 1 | 26 | 172 | 3 | 201 | 12.9% | 85.6% | R+72.6 |
| Precinct -WILBERTONWILBERTON | 25 | 162 | 6 | 193 | 13.0% | 83.9% | R+71.0 |
| Precinct -NORTH HURRICANENORTH HURRICANE | 24 | 111 | 5 | 140 | 17.1% | 79.3% | R+62.1 |
| Precinct -SOUTH HURRICANESOUTH HURRICANE | 23 | 102 | 2 | 127 | 18.1% | 80.3% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -POPEPOPE | 34 | 88 | 4 | 126 | 27.0% | 69.8% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct -CARSONCARSON | 6 | 84 | 2 | 92 | 6.5% | 91.3% | R+84.8 |
| AVENA 1 Voting District17_17051AV01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| AVENA 2 Voting District17_17051AV02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BEAR GROVE 1 Voting District17_17051BG01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BOWLING GREEN 1 Voting District17_17051BW01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CARSON 1 Voting District17_17051CA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HURRICANE 1 Voting District17_17051HU01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KASKASKIA 1 Voting District17_17051KS01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LA CLEDE 1 Voting District17_17051LA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LA CLEDE 2 Voting District17_17051LA02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LONE GROVE 1 Voting District17_17051LG01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LOUDON 1 Voting District17_17051LO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OTEGO 1 Voting District17_17051OT01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OTEGO 2 Voting District17_17051OT02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| POPE 1 Voting District17_17051PO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RAMSEY 1 Voting District17_17051RA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RAMSEY 2 Voting District17_17051RA02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SEFTON 1 Voting District17_17051SF01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SEMINARY 1 Voting District17_17051SM01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHAFTER 1 Voting District17_17051ST01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHARON 1 Voting District17_17051SR01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SO HURRICANE 1 Voting District17_17051SH01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 1 Voting District17_17051VA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 2 Voting District17_17051VA02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 3 Voting District17_17051VA03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 4 Voting District17_17051VA04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 5 Voting District17_17051VA05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 6 Voting District17_17051VA06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 7 Voting District17_17051VA07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 8 Voting District17_17051VA08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VANDALIA 9 Voting District17_17051VA09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WHEATLAND 1 Voting District17_17051WH01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WILBERTON 1 Voting District17_17051WI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +8.4% |
| 1896 | +13.2% |
| 1900 | +7.7% |
| 1904 | −9.6% |
| 1908 | −1.0% |
| 1912 | +21.5% |
| 1916 | +3.1% |
| 1920 | −19.6% |
| 1924 | −3.3% |
| 1928 | −24.0% |
| 1932 | +15.6% |
| 1936 | +3.0% |
| 1940 | −1.3% |
| 1944 | −7.5% |
| 1948 | +0.5% |
| 1952 | −14.0% |
| 1956 | −15.7% |
| 1960 | −14.6% |
| 1964 | +16.7% |
| 1968 | −13.8% |
| 1972 | −22.1% |
| 1976 | +0.7% |
| 1980 | −27.9% |
| 1984 | −26.4% |
| 1988 | −8.1% |
| 1992 | +13.1% |
| 1996 | +0.1% |
| 2000 | −14.1% |
| 2004 | −24.2% |
| 2008 | −15.8% |
| 2012 | −34.4% |
| 2016 | −57.9% |
| 2020 | −61.8% |
| 2024 | −64.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 14,771 |
| 2018 | 14,056 |
| 2020 | 14,349 |
| 2022 | 12,716 |
| 2024 | 14,814 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−96 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,452 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $47,083 in average income, against $70,579 for residents who stayed — 33% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+54.2 on average — 10 points more Democratic-leaning than Fayette County, IL itself (R+64.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Effingham County, IL66R+60.3
- Shelby County, IL28R+60.2
- Bond County, IL26R+44.7
- Marion County, IL22R+49.5
- Montgomery County, IL21R+44.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Effingham County, IL75
- Marion County, IL33
- Bond County, IL29
- Madison County, IL25
- Montgomery County, IL25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +166 |
| 2012 | −251 |
| 2013 | +14 |
| 2014 | −166 |
| 2015 | −58 |
| 2016 | −483 |
| 2017 | −71 |
| 2018 | −158 |
| 2019 | −40 |
| 2021 | −351 |
| 2022 | +96 |
| 2023 | −31 |
| 2024 | −23 |
| 2025 | −96 |
Fayette County, anchored by Vandalia in the state's south-central interior, recorded an R+64.7 presidential margin in 2024—among the widest in a state often defined by its urban-rural divide.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 21.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 64.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 64.7 points.
A population of 21,315, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $60,944 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Pike County and Shelby County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Pike County
Illinois
93.2twin score
12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory
Shelby County
Illinois
90.5twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectoryelasticity
Greene County
Illinois
90.1twin score
12-yr trendelasticity2020–2024 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Fayette County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Fayette County
Illinois at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Fayette County, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Fayette County, Illinois voted Republican by 64.7 points (R+64.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 9,601 votes cast, 1,632 went Democratic and 7,847 went Republican.
When did Fayette County, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Fayette County, Illinois voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Fayette County, Illinois?
Fayette County, Illinois has a population of 21,315 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Fayette County, Illinois?
Median household income in Fayette County, Illinois is $60,944 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $83,390.
What is the political history of Fayette County, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Fayette County, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 12 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.