| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 1,632 | 7,847 | 9,601 | |
| 2020 | R | 1,826 | 8,055 | 10,076 | |
| 2016 | R | 1,819 | 7,372 | 9,591 | |
| 2012 | R | 2,853 | 5,951 | 9,012 | |
| 2008 | R | 3,967 | 5,499 | 9,680 | |
| 2004 | R | 3,571 | 5,880 | 9,549 | |
| 2000 | R | 3,886 | 5,200 | 9,338 | |
| 1996 | D | 3,887 | 3,881 | 8,792 | |
| 1992 | D | 4,833 | 3,508 | 10,118 | |
| 1988 | R | 4,632 | 5,452 | 10,118 | |
| 1984 | R | 3,844 | 6,607 | 10,473 | |
| 1980 | R | 3,614 | 6,523 | 10,408 | |
| 1976 | D | 5,128 | 5,059 | 10,255 | |
| 1972 | R | 4,192 | 6,574 | 10,768 | |
| 1968 | R | 4,011 | 5,449 | 10,403 | |
| 1964 | D | 6,295 | 4,492 | 10,787 | |
| 1960 | R | 4,907 | 6,586 | 11,504 | |
| 1956 | R | 4,914 | 6,739 | 11,658 | |
| 1952 | R | 5,299 | 7,028 | 12,339 | |
| 1948 | D | 5,771 | 5,717 | 11,608 | |
| 1944 | R | 5,435 | 6,332 | 11,887 | |
| 1940 | R | 7,286 | 7,486 | 14,915 | |
| 1936 | D | 6,824 | 6,419 | 13,371 | |
| 1932 | D | 7,053 | 5,122 | 12,360 | |
| 1928 | R | 3,998 | 6,545 | 10,616 | |
| 1924 | R | 4,668 | 5,010 | 10,344 | |
| 1920 | R | 3,824 | 5,758 | 9,846 | |
| 1916 | D | 5,669 | 5,316 | 11,411 | |
| 1912 | D | 2,782 | 1,481 | 6,042 | |
| 1908 | R | 3,193 | 3,261 | 6,700 | |
| 1904 | R | 2,650 | 3,253 | 6,302 | |
| 1900 | D | 3,423 | 2,920 | 6,519 | |
| 1896 | D | 3,627 | 2,769 | 6,522 | |
| 1892 | D | 2,433 | 1,980 | 5,401 | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Fayette County, anchored by Vandalia in the state's south-central interior, recorded an R+64.7 presidential margin in 2024—among the widest in a state often defined by its urban-rural divide.
The Democratic margin in Fayette County peaked at twenty-two points in 1912. By 2000 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was sixty-five points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Fayette County's median household income of $60,944 sits well below state and national norms, and 16% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Shelby County and Crawford County.