HarrisDemocratic19.2%2,240TrumpRepublican79.4%9,267KennedyIndependent1.3%157
R+60.2- Lead
- 7,027
- Total
- 11,670
- vs nation
- R+58.7
- Turnout
- 72.5%
Akashiccounty
Shelby County, IL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 72.5% of 16,237 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic20.7%2,504TrumpRepublican77.8%9,426JorgensenLibertarian0.9%109
R+57.1- Lead
- 6,922
- Total
- 12,115
- vs nation
- R+61.6
- Turnout
- 71.7%
ClintonDemocratic20.7%2,288TrumpRepublican74.5%8,229JohnsonLibertarian3.4%372
R+53.8- Lead
- 5,941
- Total
- 11,049
- vs nation
- R+55.9
- Turnout
- 64.3%
ObamaDemocratic32.0%3,342RomneyRepublican65.6%6,843JOHNSONLibertarian1.4%143
R+33.5- Lead
- 3,501
- Total
- 10,439
- vs nation
- R+37.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic39.1%4,245McCainRepublican58.9%6,396OtherAll other candidates2.1%227
R+19.8- Lead
- 2,151
- Total
- 10,868
- vs nation
- R+27.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic35.4%3,744BushRepublican63.8%6,753OtherAll other candidates0.8%80
R+28.4- Lead
- 3,009
- Total
- 10,577
- vs nation
- R+26.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic39.5%4,018BushRepublican57.6%5,851NaderGreen1.6%162
R+18.0- Lead
- 1,833
- Total
- 10,163
- vs nation
- R+18.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic43.4%4,249DoleRepublican43.1%4,215PerotReform12.9%1,262
D+0.3- Lead
- 34
- Total
- 9,788
- vs nation
- R+8.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+60.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 20,7202024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,0952024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 96.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+26.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+60.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Pike County, IL · twin score 93.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 72.5%11,775 participants ÷ 16,237 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +11.5 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -10.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 61.0%–62.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 11,049 | 17,179 | 64.3% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 9,439 | 17,122 | 55.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 12,115 | 16,901 | 71.7% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 9,873 | 16,413 | 60.2% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 11,775 | 16,237 | 72.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
66 precincts · 11,774 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -PRAIRIEPRAIRIE | 97 | 554 | 8 | 659 | 14.7% | 84.1% | R+69.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -MOWEAQUA 2MOWEAQUA 2 | 132 | 447 | 14 | 593 | 22.3% | 75.4% | R+53.1 |
| Precinct -OKAWOKAW | 125 | 415 | 15 | 555 | 22.5% | 74.8% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct -SHELBYVILLE 5SHELBYVILLE 5 | 105 | 440 | 9 | 554 | 19.0% | 79.4% | R+60.5 |
| Precinct -TOWER HILLTOWER HILL | 76 | 423 | 11 | 510 | 14.9% | 82.9% | R+68.0 |
| Precinct -ROSE 2ROSE 2 | 84 | 404 | 13 | 501 | 16.8% | 80.6% | R+63.9 |
| Precinct -OCONEEOCONEE | 89 | 390 | 12 | 491 | 18.1% | 79.4% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -SIGELSIGEL | 67 | 402 | 13 | 482 | 13.9% | 83.4% | R+69.5 |
| Precinct -ROSE 1ROSE 1 | 108 | 342 | 21 | 471 | 22.9% | 72.6% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct -DRY POINTDRY POINT | 34 | 433 | 3 | 470 | 7.2% | 92.1% | R+84.9 |
| Precinct -RICHLANDRICHLAND | 81 | 371 | 14 | 466 | 17.4% | 79.6% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -MOWEAQUA 1MOWEAQUA 1 | 133 | 321 | 5 | 459 | 29.0% | 69.9% | R+41.0 |
| Precinct -WINDSOR 1WINDSOR 1 | 85 | 329 | 14 | 428 | 19.9% | 76.9% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct -SHELBYVILLE 6SHELBYVILLE 6 | 124 | 292 | 4 | 420 | 29.5% | 69.5% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct -BIG SPRINGBIG SPRING | 58 | 353 | 6 | 417 | 13.9% | 84.7% | R+70.7 |
| Precinct -SHELBYVILLE 7SHELBYVILLE 7 | 84 | 287 | 14 | 385 | 21.8% | 74.5% | R+52.7 |
| Precinct -SHELBYVILLE 4SHELBYVILLE 4 | 72 | 221 | 6 | 299 | 24.1% | 73.9% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct -FLAT BRANCHFLAT BRANCH | 42 | 243 | 10 | 295 | 14.2% | 82.4% | R+68.1 |
| Precinct -SHELBYVILLE 1SHELBYVILLE 1 | 85 | 188 | 8 | 281 | 30.2% | 66.9% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -WINDSOR 2WINDSOR 2 | 51 | 210 | 11 | 272 | 18.8% | 77.2% | R+58.5 |
| Precinct -HERRICKHERRICK | 45 | 219 | 7 | 271 | 16.6% | 80.8% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct -ASH GROVEASH GROVE | 53 | 209 | 5 | 267 | 19.9% | 78.3% | R+58.4 |
| Precinct -SHELBYVILLE 3SHELBYVILLE 3 | 61 | 193 | 7 | 261 | 23.4% | 73.9% | R+50.6 |
| Precinct -TODDS POINTTODDS POINT | 47 | 207 | 4 | 258 | 18.2% | 80.2% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -CLARKSBURGCLARKSBURG | 33 | 196 | 3 | 232 | 14.2% | 84.5% | R+70.3 |
| Precinct -RIDGERIDGE | 39 | 185 | 4 | 228 | 17.1% | 81.1% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -HOLLANDHOLLAND | 30 | 189 | 6 | 225 | 13.3% | 84.0% | R+70.7 |
| Precinct -COLD SPRINGCOLD SPRING | 41 | 177 | 6 | 224 | 18.3% | 79.0% | R+60.7 |
| Precinct -LAKEWOODLAKEWOOD | 42 | 181 | 0 | 223 | 18.8% | 81.2% | R+62.3 |
| Precinct -SHELBYVILLE 2SHELBYVILLE 2 | 55 | 145 | 8 | 208 | 26.4% | 69.7% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -RURALRURAL | 26 | 160 | 3 | 189 | 13.8% | 84.7% | R+70.9 |
| Precinct -PICKAWAYPICKAWAY | 26 | 87 | 2 | 115 | 22.6% | 75.7% | R+53.0 |
| Precinct -PENNPENN | 10 | 54 | 1 | 65 | 15.4% | 83.1% | R+67.7 |
| ASH GROVE Voting District17_17173AG01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BIG SPRING Voting District17_17173BS01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CLARKSBURG Voting District17_17173CL01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COLD SPRING Voting District17_17173CS01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DRY POINT Voting District17_17173DP01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FLAT BRANCH Voting District17_17173FB01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HERRICK Voting District17_17173HE01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HOLLAND Voting District17_17173HO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LAKEWOOD Voting District17_17173LA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MOWEAQUA 1 Voting District17_17173MO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MOWEAQUA 2 Voting District17_17173MO02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OCONEE Voting District17_17173OC01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OKAW Voting District17_17173OK01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PENN Voting District17_17173PE01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PICKAWAY Voting District17_17173PI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PRAIRIE 1 Voting District17_17173PR01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RICHLAND Voting District17_17173RI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RIDGE Voting District17_17173RD01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROSE 1 Voting District17_17173RO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROSE 2 Voting District17_17173RO02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RURAL Voting District17_17173RU01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHELBYVILLE 1 Voting District17_17173SH01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHELBYVILLE 2 Voting District17_17173SH02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHELBYVILLE 3 Voting District17_17173SH03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHELBYVILLE 4 Voting District17_17173SH04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHELBYVILLE 5 Voting District17_17173SH05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHELBYVILLE 6 Voting District17_17173SH06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHELBYVILLE 7 Voting District17_17173SH07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SIGEL Voting District17_17173SI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TODDS POINT Voting District17_17173TP01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWER HILL Voting District17_17173TH01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WINDSOR 1 Voting District17_17173WI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WINDSOR 2 Voting District17_17173WI02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +17.2% |
| 1896 | +20.7% |
| 1900 | +14.1% |
| 1904 | −3.7% |
| 1908 | +9.6% |
| 1912 | +26.7% |
| 1916 | +11.6% |
| 1920 | −10.5% |
| 1924 | −2.9% |
| 1928 | −27.3% |
| 1932 | +26.5% |
| 1936 | +16.8% |
| 1940 | +3.0% |
| 1944 | −2.3% |
| 1948 | +2.8% |
| 1952 | −15.4% |
| 1956 | −14.0% |
| 1960 | −9.1% |
| 1964 | +24.7% |
| 1968 | −8.6% |
| 1972 | −24.3% |
| 1976 | +8.2% |
| 1980 | −22.5% |
| 1984 | −19.2% |
| 1988 | −7.1% |
| 1992 | +13.2% |
| 1996 | +0.3% |
| 2000 | −18.0% |
| 2004 | −28.4% |
| 2008 | −19.8% |
| 2012 | −33.5% |
| 2016 | −53.8% |
| 2020 | −57.1% |
| 2024 | −60.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 15,718 |
| 2018 | 15,301 |
| 2020 | 14,997 |
| 2022 | 14,705 |
| 2024 | 15,428 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+110 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −667 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $53,321 in average income, against $77,824 for residents who stayed — 31% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+40.7 on average — 20 points more Democratic-leaning than Shelby County, IL itself (R+60.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Effingham County, IL59R+60.3
- Christian County, IL58R+46.7
- Macon County, IL54R+18.9
- Coles County, IL47R+28.4
- Moultrie County, IL30R+49.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Christian County, IL67
- Macon County, IL62
- Effingham County, IL59
- Coles County, IL58
- Moultrie County, IL43
- Fayette County, IL28
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −81 |
| 2012 | −89 |
| 2013 | −82 |
| 2014 | −68 |
| 2015 | −267 |
| 2016 | −96 |
| 2017 | +3 |
| 2018 | −16 |
| 2019 | −73 |
| 2021 | +8 |
| 2022 | −14 |
| 2023 | −36 |
| 2024 | +34 |
| 2025 | +110 |
Shelby County's R+60.2 margin in 2024 places it among the most heavily one-sided counties in a state often defined by its Chicago-versus-downstate divide, reflecting the deep rural consolidation seen across central Illinois farmland.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 26.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 60.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 60.2 points.
A population of 20,720, a 96% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,095 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Pike County and Morgan County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Pike County
Illinois
93.0twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectoryelasticity
Morgan County
Missouri
90.7twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectoryelasticity≠ median income
Fayette County
Illinois
90.5twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectoryelasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Shelby County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17173/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Shelby County
Illinois at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Shelby County, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Shelby County, Illinois voted Republican by 60.2 points (R+60.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 11,670 votes cast, 2,240 went Democratic and 9,267 went Republican.
When did Shelby County, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Shelby County, Illinois voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Shelby County, Illinois?
Shelby County, Illinois has a population of 20,720 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Shelby County, Illinois?
Median household income in Shelby County, Illinois is $72,095 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $83,390.
What is the political history of Shelby County, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Shelby County, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.