akashic
1876–2024
San Joaquin County, California
San Joaquin County·California

San Joaquin County delivered a near-tie in 2024.

Once reliably Democratic, now a true toss-up at the presidential level

18762024·38 elections
San Joaquin County, California · GeneWright · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+1
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
797,334
2024 ACS
Most similar
Merced County
CA · similarity 0.89
232 precincts · 264,916 votes cast
Trump · R+1
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−0.9%
126,647128,996264,916
2020D
+13.8%
161,137121,098289,781
2016D
+14.2%
121,12488,936227,002
2012D
+13.7%
114,12186,071205,364
2008D
+10.6%
113,97491,607210,308
2004R
−7.4%
87,012100,978189,864
2000R
−1.2%
79,77681,773167,239
1996D
+1.5%
67,25365,131145,140
1992D
+3.4%
63,65558,355154,210
1988R
−9.8%
61,69975,309138,453
1984R
−20.4%
53,84681,795137,213
1980R
−19.8%
41,55164,718116,863
1976R
−1.5%
48,73350,277101,361
1972R
−15.8%
44,06261,646111,469
1968R
−5.3%
42,07347,29398,589
1964D
+23.6%
59,21036,54695,839
1960R
−6.1%
42,85548,44191,657
1956R
−9.3%
36,94144,49181,600
1952R
−12.0%
34,51044,03379,107
1948R
−2.1%
27,90829,13559,361
1944D
+5.3%
27,07424,35751,588
1940D
+6.2%
26,53623,40350,498
1936D
+47.6%
29,07810,17239,723
1932D
+31.1%
21,92911,14534,626
1928R
−23.2%
10,34316,69527,326
1924R
−38.3%
2,39711,05622,607
1920R
−28.0%
6,48712,00319,698
1916D
+17.4%
11,4547,86120,661
1912D
+58.0%
7,969013,739
1908R
−13.3%
3,3314,4708,564
1904R
−30.2%
2,2934,4987,296
1900R
−7.0%
2,8733,3186,379
1896D
+0.0%
3,5003,5007,167
1892D
+2.1%
3,1062,9587,029
1888R
−0.1%
2,8222,8295,981
1884R
−3.0%
2,8983,0796,119
1880R
−3.2%
2,4092,5684,985
1876R
−10.2%
1,8502,2704,120
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
Polish
0.8%
African American
5.5%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.7%
Other Christian
7.9%
Non-Christian
2.6%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.4%
Baptist
1.9%
Mainline Protestant
1.2%
Methodist
0.5%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 61.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

San Joaquin County's rapid suburban growth around Stockton has compressed its presidential margins over two cycles, flipping to a slim Republican edge in 2024 after years of Democratic pluralities driven by its large Latino and Southeast Asian communities.

The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached fifty-eight points in 1912; the Republican margin reached thirty-eight points in 1924. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

San Joaquin County's demographics — a population of 797,334, a 32% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $92,179 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Merced County and Cumberland County.