Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California: Tossup market. In 2024, voted D+6%. Democratic peak: D+51 in 1912.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+6MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- TossupAkashic typology
- Population
- 4,701,8022024 5-year
- Median household income
- $93,3532024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 47.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 30.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+51 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+35 in 1924MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, CAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 1,013,111 | 900,459 | 1,978,274 | ||
| D | 1,169,176 | 894,340 | 2,118,463 | ||
| D | 872,650 | 677,540 | 1,692,655 | ||
| D | 816,887 | 689,685 | 1,551,739 | ||
| D | 870,063 | 714,166 | 1,622,276 | ||
| R | 669,456 | 774,946 | 1,461,964 | ||
| R | 586,281 | 627,988 | 1,276,237 | ||
| D | 536,918 | 504,082 | 1,156,675 | ||
| D | 518,807 | 451,176 | 1,247,545 | ||
| R | 480,664 | 551,717 | 1,046,157 | ||
| R | 397,867 | 562,866 | 973,686 | ||
| R | 320,307 | 433,099 | 851,235 | ||
| D | 364,477 | 323,668 | 709,295 | ||
| R | 321,010 | 366,288 | 714,402 | ||
| D | 282,923 | 257,488 | 590,406 | ||
| D | 371,299 | 202,594 | 574,614 | ||
| D | 270,905 | 240,271 | 513,523 | ||
| D | 221,226 | 210,307 | 432,623 | ||
| R | 191,777 | 210,774 | 405,489 | ||
| D | 166,276 | 130,486 | 308,553 | ||
| D | 153,567 | 99,841 | 254,846 | ||
| D | 158,836 | 94,770 | 256,501 | ||
| D | 151,538 | 50,650 | 204,829 | ||
| D | 118,065 | 52,507 | 176,887 | ||
| R | 61,543 | 77,286 | 140,332 | ||
| O | 11,317 | 52,031 | 115,566 | ||
| R | 29,204 | 62,876 | 99,234 | ||
| D | 59,774 | 41,652 | 108,985 | ||
| D | 42,413 | 0 | 82,527 | ||
| R | 22,726 | 29,602 | 57,095 | ||
| R | 17,207 | 31,646 | 53,348 | ||
| R | 24,766 | 28,438 | 54,647 | ||
| D | 27,801 | 25,784 | 54,663 | ||
| D | 23,915 | 23,863 | 52,819 | ||
| R | 25,278 | 25,648 | 52,442 | ||
| R | 23,106 | 25,924 | 50,205 | ||
| R | 22,821 | 23,404 | 46,594 | ||
| R | 20,443 | 22,267 | 42,711 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
9.0%
English
8.5%
Irish
7.4%
Italian
4.2%
American
2.4%
Scottish
1.5%
French
1.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.2 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$93,353
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto ranks near the middle of US counties.
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto$93,353
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.8%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.3%
Working age (18–64)11.0%
Seniors (65+)11.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
67.5%
speak English only
Spanish17.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander7.3%
Other Indo-European6.3%
Other languages1.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 63.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Spanning from the state capital through the San Joaquin Valley, this media market blends Sacramento's government-worker electorate with Stockton and Modesto's majority-minority, working-class communities, producing notably mixed turnout patterns across its counties.
The market's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached fifty-one points in 1912; the Republican margin reached thirty-five points in 1924. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.
Its demographics — a population of 4,701,802, a 48% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $93,353 — situate the market close to national averages on several dimensions.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/862/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California voted Democratic by 5.7 points (D+6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,978,274 votes cast, 1,013,111 went Democratic and 900,459 went Republican.
What is Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California as a "Tossup" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 21 times, Republican 16 times, and other 1 times.
When did Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California?
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California has a population of 4,701,802 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California?
Median household income in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California is $93,353 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 16 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.