Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic32.9%154TrumpRepublican66.5%311OtherAll other candidates0.6%3
R+33.5
Lead
157
Total
468
vs nation
R+32.1
BidenDemocratic34.8%157TrumpRepublican63.6%287OtherAll other candidates1.6%7
R+28.8
Lead
130
Total
451
vs nation
R+33.3
ClintonDemocratic30.3%120TrumpRepublican65.9%261OtherAll other candidates3.8%15
R+35.6
Lead
141
Total
396
vs nation
R+37.7
ObamaDemocratic39.8%190RomneyRepublican57.4%274OtherAll other candidates2.7%13
R+17.6
Lead
84
Total
477
vs nation
R+21.5
ObamaDemocratic42.8%223McCainRepublican55.9%291OtherAll other candidates1.3%7
R+13.1
Lead
68
Total
521
vs nation
R+20.3
KerryDemocratic36.4%195BushRepublican61.8%331OtherAll other candidates1.9%10
R+25.4
Lead
136
Total
536
vs nation
R+22.9
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+33.5MIT Election Lab
Population
3,9742024 5-year
Population density
4,968 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
0.8 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$86,2712024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
55.2%2024 5-year
Black
21.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
22.5%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+35.6 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2012–20246 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
12.2%475 participants ÷ 3,878 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
-45.0 ptsMidterm-resilient, low base
Drop-off vs state
-66.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
34.5%–57.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
18.5%
68.2%
201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
475
3,878 ± 557
12.2%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
363
532 ± 175
68.2%
Audited
E/D
454
1,950 ± 345
23.3%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
378
2,047 ± 303
18.5%
Audited
E/D
404
2,142 ± 1,304
18.9%
Audited
E/D
477
2,193
21.8%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Watchtower, NY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
42.8%
223 votes · R+13.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 39.8%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
66.5%
311 votes · R+33.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · 65.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
223votes
42.8% of the vote · R+13.1
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 195 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
331votes
61.8% of the vote · R+25.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 311 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
−20.3pts D vs U.S.
Place R+13.1 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · −21.5 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+37.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+35.6 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +33.3 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Watchtower · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Ulster County, New York, the county containing Watchtower — Watchtower’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Watchtower, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Watchtower sits in the Mid-Atlantic. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 35.6 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 33.5 points.
A population of 3,974, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $86,271 describe the city.
In 2024, Watchtower, New York voted Republican by 33.5 points (R+33.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 468 votes cast, 154 went Democratic and 311 went Republican.
How many people live in Watchtower, New York?
Watchtower, New York has a population of 3,974 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Watchtower, New York?
Median household income in Watchtower, New York is $86,271 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Watchtower, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Watchtower, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
