Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes.
2020–20243 cycles · 3 audited
2024 turnout
69.7%31,905 participants ÷ 45,747 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+22.7 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+0.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
47.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm
0%20%40%60%80%
50.4%
202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
31,905
45,747 ± 1,382
69.7%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
23,409
46,422 ± 1,136
50.4%
Audited
E/A
33,358
45,646 ± 1,149
73.1%
Audited
E/A
Sources and methods
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
presidential history
Party record book
Tonawanda Town, NY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
57.4%
18,638 votes · D+16.9
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 56.4%
Republican
Donald Trump2016
46.1%
13,523 votes · D+2.6
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 45.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
18,638votes
57.4% of the vote · D+16.9
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 17,752 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
14,431votes
45.0% of the vote · D+7.4
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 13,891 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+15.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+14.0 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +12.5 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
−0.5pts R vs U.S.
Place D+2.6 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −3.2 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Tonawanda Town · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Erie County, New York, the county containing Tonawanda Town — Tonawanda Town’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Tonawanda Town, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Tonawanda Town CDP sits along the Niagara River corridor northwest of Buffalo, where a working-class industrial heritage and gradual demographic shifts have kept countywide races consistently competitive within single-digit margins.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 16.9 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.0 points.
A population of 56,806, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $77,679 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cheektowaga and West Seneca.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Tonawanda Town, New York voted Democratic by 14.0 points (D+14.0), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 31,490 votes cast, 17,752 went Democratic and 13,336 went Republican.
How many people live in Tonawanda Town, New York?
Tonawanda Town, New York has a population of 56,806 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tonawanda Town, New York?
Median household income in Tonawanda Town, New York is $77,679 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Tonawanda Town, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Tonawanda Town, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
