North Carolina last voted for a Democrat for president in 2008, when Barack Obama carried it by three-tenths of a point — and it has gone the other way every cycle since, by margins that have stayed narrow: R+2.0 in 2012, R+3.7 in 2016, R+1.3 in 2020, and R+3.2 in 2024. Donald Trump carried it again last year, 2,898,429 votes to 2,715,382, the one Southern battleground he held while Georgia stayed within two points and Arizona within six. The whole state turned out 5.7 million voters. Twenty-two of its hundred counties went Democratic, and seventy-eight Republican, the split that has defined the modern map.
The Democratic vote sits in two places. The urban crescent runs through the largest counties — Mecklenburg, holding Charlotte, at D+32.7; Wake, around Raleigh, at D+25.4; Durham at D+61.7, the widest county margin in the state; Guilford, around Greensboro, at D+21.8; and Forsyth, around Winston-Salem, at D+13.1 — five counties that together cast more than 1.9 million votes. The second is the Black east, the old plantation belt along the Virginia line, where Hertford voted D+26.6 and Edgecombe D+22.7. Against them the rural west and the coastal plain run Republican, out to Graham County in the mountains at R+63.7, the state’s widest the other way.
The suburbs are where the state is decided, and the registration map shows the ground shifting under it. North Carolina records party registration, and in 2008 Democrats held 2.78 million registered voters to the Republicans’ 1.95 million. By 2024 the order had inverted: 2.97 million voters registered with neither party, ahead of 2.46 million Democrats and 2.35 million Republicans. The state also splits its ticket — in 2024 it gave Trump the presidential vote and elected Josh Stein, a Democrat, governor on the same night. Underneath sits a state of 10.7 million, 60 percent White and 20 percent Black, 26.5 percent Evangelical and 8th of fifty in that share.