HarrisDemocratic27.0%4,262TrumpRepublican72.3%11,432KennedyIndependent0.3%40
R+45.4- Lead
- 7,170
- Total
- 15,802
- vs nation
- R+43.9
- Turnout
- 59.1%
Akashiccounty
Lincoln County, MS
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 59.1% of 26,733 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic30.0%5,040TrumpRepublican69.0%11,596JorgensenLibertarian0.4%64
R+39.0- Lead
- 6,556
- Total
- 16,801
- vs nation
- R+43.5
- Turnout
- 64.7%
ClintonDemocratic29.3%4,458TrumpRepublican69.4%10,550JohnsonLibertarian0.6%89
R+40.1- Lead
- 6,092
- Total
- 15,193
- vs nation
- R+42.2
- Turnout
- 58.3%
ObamaDemocratic33.3%5,471RomneyRepublican66.0%10,839OtherAll other candidates0.6%104
R+32.7- Lead
- 5,368
- Total
- 16,414
- vs nation
- R+36.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic33.6%5,505McCainRepublican65.7%10,781OtherAll other candidates0.7%116
R+32.2- Lead
- 5,276
- Total
- 16,402
- vs nation
- R+39.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic30.5%4,418BushRepublican69.0%10,008OtherAll other candidates0.5%70
R+38.6- Lead
- 5,590
- Total
- 14,496
- vs nation
- R+36.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic33.5%4,358BushRepublican65.7%8,540NaderGreen0.5%60
R+32.2- Lead
- 4,182
- Total
- 13,000
- vs nation
- R+32.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic38.8%4,294DoleRepublican53.9%5,960PerotReform7.0%778
R+15.1- Lead
- 1,666
- Total
- 11,067
- vs nation
- R+23.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+45.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 34,8772024 5-year
- Median household income
- $51,1192024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 67.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 30.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+93.8 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+87.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Jones County, MS · twin score 94.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 59.1%15,802 participants ÷ 26,733 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +31.2 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +3.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 27.9%–39.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 15,193 | 26,079 | 58.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 12,870 | 25,958 | 49.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 16,824 | 26,011 | 64.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 8,922 | 26,648 | 33.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 15,802 | 26,733 | 59.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
62 precincts · 15,802 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -New SightNew Sight | 396 | 691 | 5 | 1,092 | 36.3% | 63.3% | R+27.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -EnterpriseEnterprise | 61 | 981 | 5 | 1,047 | 5.8% | 93.7% | R+87.9 |
| Precinct -Loyd StarLoyd Star | 155 | 846 | 2 | 1,003 | 15.5% | 84.3% | R+68.9 |
| Precinct -Halbert HeightsHalbert Heights | 180 | 786 | 11 | 977 | 18.4% | 80.5% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -Old BrookOld Brook | 149 | 695 | 4 | 848 | 17.6% | 82.0% | R+64.4 |
| Precinct -West LincolnWest Lincoln | 38 | 755 | 6 | 799 | 4.8% | 94.5% | R+89.7 |
| Precinct -ZetusZetus | 122 | 594 | 3 | 719 | 17.0% | 82.6% | R+65.6 |
| Precinct -ArlingtonArlington | 102 | 517 | 2 | 621 | 16.4% | 83.3% | R+66.8 |
| Precinct -Heucks RetreatHeucks Retreat | 104 | 504 | 5 | 613 | 17.0% | 82.2% | R+65.3 |
| Precinct -RuthRuth | 26 | 558 | 6 | 590 | 4.4% | 94.6% | R+90.2 |
| Precinct -Johnson GroveJohnson Grove | 89 | 493 | 3 | 585 | 15.2% | 84.3% | R+69.1 |
| Precinct -ForrestryForrestry | 186 | 360 | 5 | 551 | 33.8% | 65.3% | R+31.6 |
| Precinct -JohnsonJohnson | 70 | 440 | 4 | 514 | 13.6% | 85.6% | R+72.0 |
| Precinct -PearlhavenPearlhaven | 421 | 73 | 7 | 501 | 84.0% | 14.6% | D+69.5 |
| Precinct -Old Red StarOld Red Star | 71 | 408 | 0 | 479 | 14.8% | 85.2% | R+70.4 |
| Precinct -High SchoolHigh School | 365 | 72 | 9 | 446 | 81.8% | 16.1% | D+65.7 |
| Precinct -CaseyvilleCaseyville | 72 | 357 | 0 | 429 | 16.8% | 83.2% | R+66.4 |
| Precinct -VaughnVaughn | 85 | 322 | 0 | 407 | 20.9% | 79.1% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -LipseyLipsey | 143 | 242 | 5 | 390 | 36.7% | 62.1% | R+25.4 |
| Precinct -AlexanderAlexander | 367 | 15 | 3 | 385 | 95.3% | 3.9% | D+91.4 |
| Precinct -Brignal / Rogers CircleBrignal / Rogers Circle | 228 | 144 | 5 | 377 | 60.5% | 38.2% | D+22.3 |
| Precinct -Governmental ComplexGovernmental Complex | 336 | 12 | 2 | 350 | 96.0% | 3.4% | D+92.6 |
| Precinct -MontgomeryMontgomery | 112 | 232 | 3 | 347 | 32.3% | 66.9% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct -Bogue ChittoBogue Chitto | 144 | 188 | 3 | 335 | 43.0% | 56.1% | R+13.1 |
| Precinct -East LincolnEast Lincoln | 14 | 289 | 1 | 304 | 4.6% | 95.1% | R+90.5 |
| Precinct -NorfieldNorfield | 49 | 184 | 0 | 233 | 21.0% | 79.0% | R+57.9 |
| Precinct -Little BahalaLittle Bahala | 73 | 147 | 2 | 222 | 32.9% | 66.2% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -City HallCity Hall | 51 | 164 | 4 | 219 | 23.3% | 74.9% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -Fair RiverFair River | 18 | 197 | 1 | 216 | 8.3% | 91.2% | R+82.9 |
| Precinct -Big SpringsBig Springs | 35 | 166 | 2 | 203 | 17.2% | 81.8% | R+64.5 |
| Alexander Jr. High Voting District28_28085101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Arlington Voting District28_28085403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Big Springs Voting District28_28085203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bogue Chitto Voting District28_28085303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brignal Voting District28_28085207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Caseyville Voting District28_28085505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| City Hall Voting District28_28085301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| East Lincoln Voting District28_28085102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Enterprise Voting District28_28085302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fair River Voting District28_28085104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Forrestry Voting District28_28085103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Government Complex Voting District28_28085105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Halbert Heights Voting District28_28085405 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Heucks Retreat Voting District28_28085202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| High School Voting District28_28085106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Johnson Grove Voting District28_28085402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Johnson Voting District28_28085404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lipsey School Voting District28_28085506 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Little Bahala Voting District28_28085201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Loyd Star Voting District28_28085502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Montgomery Voting District28_28085205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Pearlhaven Voting District28_28085204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Sight Voting District28_28085206 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Norfield Voting District28_28085305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Northwest Brookhaven Voting District28_28085406 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Old Brook Voting District28_28085306 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Old Red Star Voting District28_28085501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rogers Circle Voting District28_28085208 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ruth Voting District28_28085304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Vaughn Voting District28_28085504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| West Lincoln Voting District28_28085401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Zetus Voting District28_28085503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +60.8% |
| 1896 | +72.8% |
| 1900 | +39.7% |
| 1904 | +59.9% |
| 1908 | +67.0% |
| 1912 | +78.6% |
| 1916 | +83.7% |
| 1920 | +29.2% |
| 1924 | +74.8% |
| 1928 | +67.7% |
| 1932 | +92.3% |
| 1936 | +93.8% |
| 1940 | +91.6% |
| 1944 | +91.9% |
| 1948 | +0.4% |
| 1952 | +5.7% |
| 1956 | +29.0% |
| 1960 | +4.1% |
| 1964 | −87.8% |
| 1968 | +5.3% |
| 1972 | −73.9% |
| 1976 | −19.6% |
| 1980 | −16.4% |
| 1984 | −33.2% |
| 1988 | −31.4% |
| 1992 | −17.5% |
| 1996 | −15.1% |
| 2000 | −32.2% |
| 2004 | −38.6% |
| 2008 | −32.2% |
| 2012 | −32.7% |
| 2016 | −40.1% |
| 2020 | −39.0% |
| 2024 | −45.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 9 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 25,026 |
| 2018 | 22,447 |
| 2020 | 23,186 |
| 2022 | 22,768 |
| 2024 | 23,549 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−2 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −685 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,460 in average income, against $66,356 for residents who stayed — 31% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+11.0 on average — 34 points more Democratic-leaning than Lincoln County, MS itself (R+45.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Pike County, MS81R+3.5
- Copiah County, MS77R+6.1
- Lawrence County, MS47R+36.6
- Franklin County, MS32R+39.8
- Hinds County, MS20D+46.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Copiah County, MS85
- Pike County, MS72
- Lawrence County, MS37
- Franklin County, MS31
- Hinds County, MS31
- Rankin County, MS26
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −73 |
| 2012 | −115 |
| 2013 | −181 |
| 2014 | −41 |
| 2015 | −203 |
| 2016 | −145 |
| 2017 | −66 |
| 2018 | −132 |
| 2019 | −71 |
| 2021 | +229 |
| 2022 | −28 |
| 2023 | +2 |
| 2024 | +141 |
| 2025 | −2 |
Lincoln County has voted Republican in presidential races by wide margins for over two decades, reflecting the broader realignment of rural, majority-white Mississippi counties away from their historically Democratic roots.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 93.8 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 87.8 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.4 points.
A population of 34,877, a 67% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $51,119 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Jones County and Upson County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Jones County
Mississippi
94.0twin score
% Evangelical% Black2004 margin≠ American ancestry
Upson County
Georgia
93.7twin score
% Evangelical% Black% Catholic
Franklin Parish
Louisiana
92.1twin score
% Evangelical% Black% unaffiliated≠ Irish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lincoln County, Mississippi. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/28085/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Lincoln County
Mississippi at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Lincoln County, Mississippi vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lincoln County, Mississippi voted Republican by 45.4 points (R+45.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 15,802 votes cast, 4,262 went Democratic and 11,432 went Republican.
When did Lincoln County, Mississippi last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lincoln County, Mississippi voted Democratic was 1956.
How many people live in Lincoln County, Mississippi?
Lincoln County, Mississippi has a population of 34,877 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lincoln County, Mississippi?
Median household income in Lincoln County, Mississippi is $51,119 — below the national median of $80,734. The Mississippi state median is $56,447.
What is the political history of Lincoln County, Mississippi?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lincoln County, Mississippi from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 15 went Republican.