HarrisDemocratic27.6%1,431TrumpRepublican71.8%3,730KennedyIndependent0.3%18
R+44.3- Lead
- 2,299
- Total
- 5,194
- vs nation
- R+42.8
- Turnout
- 65.4%
Akashiccounty
Carroll County, MS
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.4% of 7,940 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic30.3%1,729TrumpRepublican68.8%3,924JorgensenLibertarian0.2%14
R+38.5- Lead
- 2,195
- Total
- 5,701
- vs nation
- R+43.0
- Turnout
- 70.9%
ClintonDemocratic30.4%1,680TrumpRepublican68.7%3,799JohnsonLibertarian0.5%29
R+38.3- Lead
- 2,119
- Total
- 5,528
- vs nation
- R+40.4
- Turnout
- 67.4%
ObamaDemocratic33.5%2,007RomneyRepublican66.1%3,960OtherAll other candidates0.4%25
R+32.6- Lead
- 1,953
- Total
- 5,992
- vs nation
- R+36.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic34.1%2,037McCainRepublican65.4%3,902OtherAll other candidates0.4%26
R+31.3- Lead
- 1,865
- Total
- 5,965
- vs nation
- R+38.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic34.0%1,900BushRepublican65.5%3,664OtherAll other candidates0.5%28
R+31.5- Lead
- 1,764
- Total
- 5,592
- vs nation
- R+29.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic35.1%1,726BushRepublican64.3%3,165NaderGreen0.4%18
R+29.2- Lead
- 1,439
- Total
- 4,924
- vs nation
- R+29.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic41.4%2,041DoleRepublican53.3%2,629PerotReform5.0%245
R+11.9- Lead
- 588
- Total
- 4,934
- vs nation
- R+20.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+44.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 9,6862024 5-year
- Median household income
- $59,3272024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 62.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 34.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 0.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+98.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+90.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lincoln County, GA · twin score 89.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.4%5,194 participants ÷ 7,940 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +25.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 40.4%–46.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,528 | 8,202 | 67.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,377 | 8,148 | 53.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,732 | 8,087 | 70.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 3,738 | 8,159 | 45.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,194 | 7,940 | 65.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
28 precincts · 5,194 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Rays ShopRays Shop | 40 | 569 | 5 | 614 | 6.5% | 92.7% | R+86.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Fire TowerFire Tower | 358 | 244 | 1 | 603 | 59.4% | 40.5% | D+18.9 |
| Precinct -East VaidenEast Vaiden | 212 | 276 | 7 | 495 | 42.8% | 55.8% | R+12.9 |
| Precinct -North CarrolltonNorth Carrollton | 90 | 391 | 1 | 482 | 18.7% | 81.1% | R+62.4 |
| Precinct -Gravel HillGravel Hill | 37 | 381 | 1 | 419 | 8.8% | 90.9% | R+82.1 |
| Precinct -West CarrollWest Carroll | 24 | 373 | 4 | 401 | 6.0% | 93.0% | R+87.0 |
| Precinct -McCarleyMcCarley | 118 | 262 | 3 | 383 | 30.8% | 68.4% | R+37.6 |
| Precinct -CarrolltonCarrollton | 38 | 312 | 2 | 352 | 10.8% | 88.6% | R+77.8 |
| Precinct -West VaidenWest Vaiden | 134 | 213 | 2 | 349 | 38.4% | 61.0% | R+22.6 |
| Precinct -430 School430 School | 171 | 100 | 3 | 274 | 62.4% | 36.5% | D+25.9 |
| Precinct -Black HawkBlack Hawk | 49 | 185 | 2 | 236 | 20.8% | 78.4% | R+57.6 |
| Precinct -SalemSalem | 134 | 69 | 1 | 204 | 65.7% | 33.8% | D+31.9 |
| Precinct -JeffersonJefferson | 18 | 176 | 0 | 194 | 9.3% | 90.7% | R+81.4 |
| Precinct -CalvaryCalvary | 8 | 179 | 1 | 188 | 4.3% | 95.2% | R+91.0 |
| Black Hawk Voting District28_28015110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Calvary Voting District28_28015103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Carrollton Voting District28_28015106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| East Vaiden Voting District28_28015114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fire Tower Voting District28_28015108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gravel Hill Voting District28_28015109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jefferson Voting District28_28015102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McCarley Voting District28_28015105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| North Carrollton Voting District28_28015104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ray's Shop Voting District28_28015101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Salem Voting District28_28015112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 430 School28_28015111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| West Carroll Voting District28_28015107 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| West Vaiden Voting District28_28015113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +57.7% |
| 1896 | +86.6% |
| 1900 | +75.0% |
| 1904 | +92.7% |
| 1908 | +85.5% |
| 1912 | +83.3% |
| 1916 | +91.5% |
| 1920 | +56.1% |
| 1924 | +85.5% |
| 1928 | +91.5% |
| 1932 | +98.4% |
| 1936 | +96.3% |
| 1940 | +94.7% |
| 1944 | +91.0% |
| 1948 | +4.9% |
| 1952 | +37.2% |
| 1956 | +54.5% |
| 1960 | +14.8% |
| 1964 | −90.8% |
| 1968 | +24.6% |
| 1972 | −49.4% |
| 1976 | +0.2% |
| 1980 | −2.7% |
| 1984 | −31.7% |
| 1988 | −25.4% |
| 1992 | −16.6% |
| 1996 | −11.9% |
| 2000 | −29.2% |
| 2004 | −31.5% |
| 2008 | −31.3% |
| 2012 | −32.6% |
| 2016 | −38.3% |
| 2020 | −38.5% |
| 2024 | −44.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 9 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 8,088 |
| 2018 | 7,681 |
| 2020 | 7,683 |
| 2022 | 7,494 |
| 2024 | 7,603 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−86 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −765 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $46,408 in average income, against $61,828 for residents who stayed — 25% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+18.7 on average — 63 points more Democratic-leaning than Carroll County, MS itself (R+44.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Leflore County, MS55D+38.4
- Grenada County, MS31R+16.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Leflore County, MS54
- Montgomery County, MS35
- Grenada County, MS28
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −170 |
| 2012 | 0 |
| 2013 | −63 |
| 2014 | −64 |
| 2015 | +1 |
| 2016 | +11 |
| 2017 | −58 |
| 2018 | −175 |
| 2019 | +46 |
| 2021 | −28 |
| 2022 | +4 |
| 2023 | −127 |
| 2024 | −56 |
| 2025 | −86 |
Carroll County's rural Delta-edge geography and small, stable population have produced some of the widest partisan gaps in the state, with the 2024 presidential result landing at R+44.3 in a county of fewer than 11,000 residents.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 98.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 90.8 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 44.3 points.
A population of 9,686, a 63% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $59,327 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lincoln County and Miller County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Lincoln County
Georgia
89.4twin score
median age% Black% Catholic
Miller County
Georgia
87.8twin score
% Black% Catholic% Evangelical≠ American ancestry
Pulaski County
Georgia
87.1twin score
% Black% Catholicelasticity≠ Scottish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Carroll County, Mississippi. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/28015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Carroll County, Mississippi vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carroll County, Mississippi voted Republican by 44.3 points (R+44.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,194 votes cast, 1,431 went Democratic and 3,730 went Republican.
When did Carroll County, Mississippi last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carroll County, Mississippi voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Carroll County, Mississippi?
Carroll County, Mississippi has a population of 9,686 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carroll County, Mississippi?
Median household income in Carroll County, Mississippi is $59,327 — below the national median of $80,734. The Mississippi state median is $56,447.
What is the political history of Carroll County, Mississippi?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carroll County, Mississippi from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.