HarrisDemocratic20.7%2,495TrumpRepublican77.6%9,354KennedyIndependent1.2%140
R+56.9- Lead
- 6,859
- Total
- 12,055
- vs nation
- R+55.4
- Turnout
- 59.9%
Akashiccounty
Clay County, IN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 59.9% of 20,310 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic20.8%2,552TrumpRepublican77.4%9,499JorgensenLibertarian1.7%208
R+56.6- Lead
- 6,947
- Total
- 12,267
- vs nation
- R+61.1
- Turnout
- 62.0%
ClintonDemocratic20.3%2,306TrumpRepublican75.3%8,528JohnsonLibertarian3.8%425
R+54.9- Lead
- 6,222
- Total
- 11,332
- vs nation
- R+57.0
- Turnout
- 56.7%
ObamaDemocratic32.0%3,460RomneyRepublican65.7%7,096JohnsonLibertarian2.1%227
R+33.7- Lead
- 3,636
- Total
- 10,805
- vs nation
- R+37.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic43.5%4,954McCainRepublican55.0%6,267OtherAll other candidates1.5%174
R+11.5- Lead
- 1,313
- Total
- 11,395
- vs nation
- R+18.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic30.9%3,333BushRepublican68.3%7,361OtherAll other candidates0.8%89
R+37.4- Lead
- 4,028
- Total
- 10,783
- vs nation
- R+34.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic35.5%3,605BushRepublican62.9%6,393OtherAll other candidates1.6%160
R+27.4- Lead
- 2,788
- Total
- 10,158
- vs nation
- R+28.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic36.4%3,605DoleRepublican49.0%4,858PerotReform14.2%1,406
R+12.6- Lead
- 1,253
- Total
- 9,915
- vs nation
- R+21.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+56.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 26,4092024 5-year
- Median household income
- $70,0102024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 94.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+24.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carroll County, IN · twin score 98.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 59.9%12,163 participants ÷ 20,310 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 36.4%–50.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 11,509 | 20,303 | 56.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 12,353 | 20,153 | 61.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 12,421 | 20,049 | 62.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,773 | 20,215 | 38.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 12,163 | 20,310 | 59.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
47 precincts · 12,073 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -POSEY 03POSEY 03 | 209 | 679 | 29 | 917 | 22.8% | 74.0% | R+51.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -JACKSON 02JACKSON 02 | 184 | 670 | 10 | 864 | 21.3% | 77.5% | R+56.3 |
| Precinct -VAN BUREN 03VAN BUREN 03 | 140 | 616 | 19 | 775 | 18.1% | 79.5% | R+61.4 |
| Precinct -POSEY 01POSEY 01 | 163 | 564 | 13 | 740 | 22.0% | 76.2% | R+54.2 |
| Precinct -DICK JOHNSONDICK JOHNSON | 123 | 569 | 15 | 707 | 17.4% | 80.5% | R+63.1 |
| Precinct -LEWISLEWIS | 107 | 499 | 9 | 615 | 17.4% | 81.1% | R+63.7 |
| Precinct -BRAZIL 02BRAZIL 02 | 166 | 422 | 16 | 604 | 27.5% | 69.9% | R+42.4 |
| Precinct -BRAZIL 01BRAZIL 01 | 156 | 429 | 10 | 595 | 26.2% | 72.1% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct -HARRISON 02HARRISON 02 | 85 | 487 | 10 | 582 | 14.6% | 83.7% | R+69.1 |
| Precinct -BRAZIL 03BRAZIL 03 | 139 | 397 | 8 | 544 | 25.6% | 73.0% | R+47.4 |
| Precinct -JACKSON 01JACKSON 01 | 104 | 407 | 8 | 519 | 20.0% | 78.4% | R+58.4 |
| Precinct -SUGAR RIDGESUGAR RIDGE | 93 | 405 | 5 | 503 | 18.5% | 80.5% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -PERRYPERRY | 79 | 392 | 9 | 480 | 16.5% | 81.7% | R+65.2 |
| Precinct -HARRISON 01HARRISON 01 | 81 | 376 | 4 | 461 | 17.6% | 81.6% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct -WASHINGTONWASHINGTON | 85 | 351 | 6 | 442 | 19.2% | 79.4% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -BRAZIL 05BRAZIL 05 | 89 | 340 | 8 | 437 | 20.4% | 77.8% | R+57.4 |
| Precinct -VAN BUREN 02VAN BUREN 02 | 100 | 328 | 5 | 433 | 23.1% | 75.8% | R+52.7 |
| Precinct -BRAZIL 04BRAZIL 04 | 90 | 330 | 7 | 427 | 21.1% | 77.3% | R+56.2 |
| Precinct -POSEY 02POSEY 02 | 78 | 304 | 6 | 388 | 20.1% | 78.4% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -VAN BUREN 01VAN BUREN 01 | 60 | 256 | 10 | 326 | 18.4% | 78.5% | R+60.1 |
| Precinct -JACKSON 03JACKSON 03 | 72 | 200 | 7 | 279 | 25.8% | 71.7% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct -BRAZIL 06BRAZIL 06 | 63 | 196 | 5 | 264 | 23.9% | 74.2% | R+50.4 |
| Precinct -CASSCASS | 29 | 137 | 5 | 171 | 17.0% | 80.1% | R+63.2 |
| BRAZIL 0118_1802100010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BRAZIL 0218_1802100020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BRAZIL 0318_1802100030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BRAZIL 0418_1802100040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BRAZIL 0518_1802100050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BRAZIL 0618_1802100060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CASS18_1802100070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DICK JOHNSON18_1802100080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DICK JOHNSON (NV)18_1802100090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HARRISON 0118_1802100100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HARRISON 0218_1802100110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON 0118_1802100120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON 0218_1802100130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON 0318_1802100140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEWIS18_1802100150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PERRY18_1802100160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| POSEY 0118_1802100170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| POSEY 0218_1802100180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| POSEY 0318_1802100190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUGAR RIDGE18_1802100200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VAN BUREN 0118_1802100210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VAN BUREN 0218_1802100220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VAN BUREN 0318_1802100230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WASHINGTON18_1802100240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +6.2% |
| 1896 | +7.9% |
| 1900 | +2.9% |
| 1904 | −5.3% |
| 1908 | +5.1% |
| 1912 | +24.7% |
| 1916 | +4.6% |
| 1920 | −4.1% |
| 1924 | −5.0% |
| 1928 | −13.8% |
| 1932 | +20.3% |
| 1936 | +12.9% |
| 1940 | −3.4% |
| 1944 | −7.7% |
| 1948 | +2.6% |
| 1952 | −7.8% |
| 1956 | −12.1% |
| 1960 | −16.3% |
| 1964 | +9.3% |
| 1968 | −15.8% |
| 1972 | −31.1% |
| 1976 | −2.1% |
| 1980 | −22.2% |
| 1984 | −30.3% |
| 1988 | −22.1% |
| 1992 | −13.7% |
| 1996 | −12.6% |
| 2000 | −27.4% |
| 2004 | −37.4% |
| 2008 | −11.5% |
| 2012 | −33.7% |
| 2016 | −54.9% |
| 2020 | −56.6% |
| 2024 | −56.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 36 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 19.9%2,260 | 80.1%9,070 | 11,330 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 19,669 |
| 2018 | 18,429 |
| 2020 | 18,577 |
| 2022 | 18,884 |
| 2024 | 18,820 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+140 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −417 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $47,096 in average income, against $68,379 for residents who stayed — 31% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+27.6 on average — 29 points more Democratic-leaning than Clay County, IN itself (R+56.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Vigo County, IN204R+18.1
- Putnam County, IN76R+52.0
- Marion County, IN39D+27.6
- Owen County, IN37R+50.7
- Greene County, IN29R+53.7
- Hendricks County, IN28R+21.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Vigo County, IN239
- Putnam County, IN58
- Marion County, IN39
- Greene County, IN35
- Owen County, IN24
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −49 |
| 2012 | −73 |
| 2013 | −141 |
| 2014 | −263 |
| 2015 | −10 |
| 2016 | −227 |
| 2017 | −39 |
| 2018 | +5 |
| 2019 | +32 |
| 2021 | +8 |
| 2022 | +85 |
| 2023 | +91 |
| 2024 | +24 |
| 2025 | +140 |
Clay County's R+56.9 margin in 2024 places it among Indiana's most Republican-leaning counties, reflecting a rural, working-class electorate that has shifted decisively rightward over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 24.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 56.9 points in 2024. The 2024 margin was 56.9 points.
A population of 26,409, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,010 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carroll County and Crawford County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Carroll County
Indiana
98.0twin score
elasticity% unaffiliated2004–2016 trajectory
Crawford County
Illinois
97.0twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory
Rush County
Indiana
96.8twin score
elasticity2016–2020 trajectory% unaffiliated≠ Irish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Clay County, Indiana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/18021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Clay County
Indiana at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Clay County, Indiana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Clay County, Indiana voted Republican by 56.9 points (R+56.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 12,055 votes cast, 2,495 went Democratic and 9,354 went Republican.
When did Clay County, Indiana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Clay County, Indiana voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Clay County, Indiana?
Clay County, Indiana has a population of 26,409 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Clay County, Indiana?
Median household income in Clay County, Indiana is $70,010 — below the national median of $80,734. The Indiana state median is $71,957.
What is the political history of Clay County, Indiana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Clay County, Indiana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 24 went Republican.