akashic
1876–2024
Warren County, Illinois
Warren County·Illinois

Warren County delivered a near-tie in 2024.

A rural Corn Belt county where Republican margins have widened each cycle since 2008

18762024·38 elections
Warren County, Illinois · Nyttend · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+25
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
16,447
2024 ACS
Most similar
Shiawassee County
MI · similarity 0.98
28 precincts · 7,447 votes cast
Trump · R+25
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−25.1%
2,7114,5797,447
2020R
−20.0%
3,0904,6767,924
2016R
−16.5%
2,9874,2757,807
2012D
+5.4%
4,0443,6187,818
2008D
+8.1%
4,2863,6378,029
2004R
−6.3%
3,9384,4748,457
2000R
−4.9%
3,5243,8997,631
1996D
+7.3%
3,5002,9747,250
1992D
+4.0%
3,6613,3258,446
1988R
−11.7%
3,6174,5848,254
1984R
−27.5%
3,3185,8469,193
1980R
−32.1%
2,7565,6679,071
1976R
−20.5%
3,8085,8229,826
1972R
−40.5%
2,9697,02110,008
1968R
−28.5%
3,0855,8779,795
1964R
−5.9%
4,6705,2589,931
1960R
−30.6%
3,8357,22111,066
1956R
−43.3%
2,9967,58010,582
1952R
−45.9%
2,9738,02011,004
1948R
−33.1%
3,3676,73810,179
1944R
−28.6%
3,9267,08511,050
1940R
−22.9%
4,8787,79012,735
1936R
−12.1%
5,4096,91912,465
1932D
+1.0%
5,6105,49811,258
1928R
−48.7%
2,6817,91510,753
1924R
−42.1%
2,4406,91210,623
1920R
−44.8%
2,2366,3099,090
1916R
−16.1%
4,4986,29411,145
1912D
+19.5%
2,0809155,966
1908R
−15.8%
2,3273,2836,066
1904R
−34.5%
1,5593,5635,808
1900R
−17.6%
2,5013,6186,351
1896R
−12.9%
2,6043,3946,144
1892R
−8.0%
2,2942,7255,376
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
Polish
0.7%
African American
2.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
11.9%
Catholic & Orthodox
9.4%
Methodist
7.8%
Mainline Protestant
3.9%
Baptist
0.8%
Pentecostal & Holiness
0.2%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 66.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Warren County's population has declined steadily as agriculture consolidates, leaving a smaller, older, and more reliably Republican electorate. In 2024 the GOP presidential margin reached 25 points, up sharply from the single-digit gaps of two decades ago.

The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached twenty points in 1912; the Republican margin reached forty-nine points in 1928. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Warren County's demographics — a population of 16,447, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $67,385 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Shiawassee County and Juneau County.