HarrisDemocratic36.4%2,711TrumpRepublican61.5%4,579KennedyIndependent1.9%142
R+25.1- Lead
- 1,868
- Total
- 7,447
- vs nation
- R+23.6
- Turnout
- 62.1%
Akashiccounty
Warren County, IL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 62.1% of 12,102 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic39.0%3,090TrumpRepublican59.0%4,676JorgensenLibertarian1.2%99
R+20.0- Lead
- 1,586
- Total
- 7,924
- vs nation
- R+24.5
- Turnout
- 79.5%
ClintonDemocratic38.3%2,987TrumpRepublican54.8%4,275JohnsonLibertarian4.6%359
R+16.5- Lead
- 1,288
- Total
- 7,807
- vs nation
- R+18.6
- Turnout
- 60.5%
ObamaDemocratic51.7%4,044RomneyRepublican46.3%3,618JOHNSONLibertarian1.1%87
D+5.4- Lead
- 426
- Total
- 7,818
- vs nation
- D+1.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic53.4%4,286McCainRepublican45.3%3,637OtherAll other candidates1.3%106
D+8.1- Lead
- 649
- Total
- 8,029
- vs nation
- D+0.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic46.6%3,938BushRepublican52.9%4,474OtherAll other candidates0.5%45
R+6.3- Lead
- 536
- Total
- 8,457
- vs nation
- R+3.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic46.2%3,524BushRepublican51.1%3,899NaderGreen1.7%130
R+4.9- Lead
- 375
- Total
- 7,631
- vs nation
- R+5.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic48.3%3,500DoleRepublican41.0%2,974PerotReform10.2%742
D+7.3- Lead
- 526
- Total
- 7,250
- vs nation
- R+1.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+25.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 16,4472024 5-year
- Median household income
- $67,3852024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+19.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+48.7 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Knox County, IL · twin score 86.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 62.1%7,517 participants ÷ 12,102 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +31.9 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +9.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 30.2%–40.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 7,807 | 12,914 | 60.5% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 6,202 | 12,816 | 48.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 10,186 | 12,813 | 79.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 5,982 | 12,575 | 47.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 7,517 | 12,102 | 62.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
56 precincts · 7,512 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 12-2/5MONMOUTH 12-2/5 | 200 | 374 | 19 | 593 | 33.7% | 63.1% | R+29.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -TOMPKINS 1-6TOMPKINS 1-6 | 123 | 294 | 9 | 426 | 28.9% | 69.0% | R+40.1 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 6-3MONMOUTH 6-3 | 184 | 193 | 21 | 398 | 46.2% | 48.5% | R+2.3 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 4-3MONMOUTH 4-3 | 188 | 185 | 11 | 384 | 49.0% | 48.2% | D+0.8 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 3-3MONMOUTH 3-3 | 156 | 202 | 17 | 375 | 41.6% | 53.9% | R+12.3 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 9-4MONMOUTH 9-4 | 145 | 200 | 16 | 361 | 40.2% | 55.4% | R+15.2 |
| Precinct -ROSEVILLE 1-1ROSEVILLE 1-1 | 125 | 210 | 13 | 348 | 35.9% | 60.3% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 5-4MONMOUTH 5-4 | 115 | 193 | 13 | 321 | 35.8% | 60.1% | R+24.3 |
| Precinct -GREENBUSH 1-1GREENBUSH 1-1 | 86 | 229 | 4 | 319 | 27.0% | 71.8% | R+44.8 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 11-3MONMOUTH 11-3 | 157 | 153 | 6 | 316 | 49.7% | 48.4% | D+1.3 |
| Precinct -SPRING GROVE-ALEXIS 1-2SPRING GROVE-ALEXIS 1-2 | 84 | 185 | 4 | 273 | 30.8% | 67.8% | R+37.0 |
| Precinct -COLDBROOK 1-2COLDBROOK 1-2 | 85 | 170 | 6 | 261 | 32.6% | 65.1% | R+32.6 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 10-4MONMOUTH 10-4 | 110 | 141 | 6 | 257 | 42.8% | 54.9% | R+12.1 |
| Precinct -FLOYD 1-1FLOYD 1-1 | 81 | 160 | 4 | 245 | 33.1% | 65.3% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 7-4MONMOUTH 7-4 | 107 | 120 | 15 | 242 | 44.2% | 49.6% | R+5.4 |
| Precinct -KELLY 1-2KELLY 1-2 | 91 | 145 | 5 | 241 | 37.8% | 60.2% | R+22.4 |
| Precinct -ROSEVILLE 2-1ROSEVILLE 2-1 | 58 | 177 | 6 | 241 | 24.1% | 73.4% | R+49.4 |
| Precinct -SPRING GROVE-GERLAW 2-2SPRING GROVE-GERLAW 2-2 | 63 | 161 | 11 | 235 | 26.8% | 68.5% | R+41.7 |
| Precinct -SUMNER 1-7/8SUMNER 1-7/8 | 76 | 148 | 9 | 233 | 32.6% | 63.5% | R+30.9 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 2-4MONMOUTH 2-4 | 106 | 102 | 3 | 211 | 50.2% | 48.3% | D+1.9 |
| Precinct -HALE 1-7HALE 1-7 | 52 | 147 | 4 | 203 | 25.6% | 72.4% | R+46.8 |
| Precinct -LENOX 1-1LENOX 1-1 | 29 | 144 | 2 | 175 | 16.6% | 82.3% | R+65.7 |
| Precinct -BERWICK 1-1BERWICK 1-1 | 40 | 131 | 3 | 174 | 23.0% | 75.3% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 8-5MONMOUTH 8-5 | 81 | 88 | 5 | 174 | 46.6% | 50.6% | R+4.0 |
| Precinct -MONMOUTH 1-3MONMOUTH 1-3 | 72 | 85 | 4 | 161 | 44.7% | 52.8% | R+8.1 |
| Precinct -ELLISON 1-6ELLISON 1-6 | 36 | 109 | 5 | 150 | 24.0% | 72.7% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct -SWAN 1-1SWAN 1-1 | 39 | 77 | 2 | 118 | 33.1% | 65.3% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct -POINT PLEASANT 1-6POINT PLEASANT 1-6 | 19 | 55 | 3 | 77 | 24.7% | 71.4% | R+46.8 |
| BERWICK Voting District17_17187BE01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COLDBROOK Voting District17_17187CO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ELLISON Voting District17_17187EL01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FLOYD Voting District17_17187FL01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREENBUSH Voting District17_17187GR01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HALE Voting District17_17187HA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KELLY Voting District17_17187KE01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LENOX Voting District17_17187LE01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 1 Voting District17_17187MN01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 10 Voting District17_17187MN10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 11 Voting District17_17187MN11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 12 Voting District17_17187MN12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 2 Voting District17_17187MN02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 3 Voting District17_17187MN03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 4 Voting District17_17187MN04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 5 Voting District17_17187MN05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 6 Voting District17_17187MN06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 7 Voting District17_17187MN07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 8 Voting District17_17187MN08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONMOUTH 9 Voting District17_17187MN09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| POINT PLEASANT Voting District17_17187PP01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROSEVILLE 1 Voting District17_17187RO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROSEVILLE 2 Voting District17_17187RO02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SPRING GROVE-ALEXIS Voting District17_17187SA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SPRING GROVE-GERLAW Voting District17_17187SG01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMNER Voting District17_17187SU01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SWAN Voting District17_17187SW01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOMPKINS Voting District17_17187TO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −8.0% |
| 1896 | −12.9% |
| 1900 | −17.6% |
| 1904 | −34.5% |
| 1908 | −15.8% |
| 1912 | +19.5% |
| 1916 | −16.1% |
| 1920 | −44.8% |
| 1924 | −42.1% |
| 1928 | −48.7% |
| 1932 | +1.0% |
| 1936 | −12.1% |
| 1940 | −22.9% |
| 1944 | −28.6% |
| 1948 | −33.1% |
| 1952 | −45.9% |
| 1956 | −43.3% |
| 1960 | −30.6% |
| 1964 | −5.9% |
| 1968 | −28.5% |
| 1972 | −40.5% |
| 1976 | −20.5% |
| 1980 | −32.1% |
| 1984 | −27.5% |
| 1988 | −11.7% |
| 1992 | +4.0% |
| 1996 | +7.3% |
| 2000 | −4.9% |
| 2004 | −6.3% |
| 2008 | +8.1% |
| 2012 | +5.4% |
| 2016 | −16.5% |
| 2020 | −20.0% |
| 2024 | −25.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 12,457 |
| 2018 | 11,814 |
| 2020 | 12,159 |
| 2022 | 12,054 |
| 2024 | 11,011 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+82 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,259 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,654 in average income, against $68,210 for residents who stayed — 33% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+19.8 on average — 5.3 points more Democratic-leaning than Warren County, IL itself (R+25.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Knox County, IL62R+9.4
- Mercer County, IL26R+27.1
- Henderson County, IL24R+38.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Knox County, IL88
- McDonough County, IL29
- Rock Island County, IL21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +80 |
| 2012 | −168 |
| 2013 | −168 |
| 2014 | −25 |
| 2015 | −331 |
| 2016 | −246 |
| 2017 | −234 |
| 2018 | −212 |
| 2019 | −212 |
| 2021 | −183 |
| 2022 | −360 |
| 2023 | −186 |
| 2024 | −96 |
| 2025 | +82 |
Warren County's population has declined steadily as agriculture consolidates, leaving a smaller, older, and more reliably Republican electorate. In 2024 the GOP presidential margin reached 25 points, up sharply from the single-digit gaps of two decades ago.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 48.7 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 25.1 points.
A population of 16,447, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,385 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Knox County and Mercer County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Knox County
Illinois
86.0twin score
12-yr trend2008–2012 trajectory% unaffiliated≠ Swedish ancestry
Mercer County
Illinois
84.9twin score
12-yr trend2008–2012 trajectoryelasticity≠ median age
Fulton County
Illinois
84.2twin score
12-yr trend2008–2012 trajectoryelasticity≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Warren County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17187/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Warren County
Illinois at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Warren County, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Warren County, Illinois voted Republican by 25.1 points (R+25.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,447 votes cast, 2,711 went Democratic and 4,579 went Republican.
When did Warren County, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Warren County, Illinois voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Warren County, Illinois?
Warren County, Illinois has a population of 16,447 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Warren County, Illinois?
Median household income in Warren County, Illinois is $67,385 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $83,390.
What is the political history of Warren County, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warren County, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 28 went Republican.