- Lead
- 3,552
- Total
- 8,226
- vs nation
- R+41.7
- Turnout
- 63.1%
Union County, IL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.1% of 13,198 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,582
- Total
- 8,904
- vs nation
- R+44.7
- Turnout
- 68.8%
- Lead
- 3,388
- Total
- 8,616
- vs nation
- R+41.4
- Turnout
- 63.6%
- Lead
- 1,820
- Total
- 8,318
- vs nation
- R+25.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,085
- Total
- 9,116
- vs nation
- R+19.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,598
- Total
- 9,119
- vs nation
- R+15.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 415
- Total
- 8,660
- vs nation
- R+5.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,105
- Total
- 8,282
- vs nation
- D+4.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 16,9972024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,7282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+36.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+43.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Franklin County, IL · twin score 83.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 63.1%8,333 participants ÷ 13,198 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 47.3%–60.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,616 | 13,548 | 63.6% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 9,833 | 13,282 | 74.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 9,004 | 13,092 | 68.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,113 | 13,425 | 53.0% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 8,333 | 13,198 | 63.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
40 precincts · 8,333 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -COBDEN 2COBDEN 2 | 242 | 438 | 24 | 704 | 34.4% | 62.2% | R+27.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -LICK CREEKLICK CREEK | 133 | 466 | 16 | 615 | 21.6% | 75.8% | R+54.1 |
| Precinct -JONESBORO 2JONESBORO 2 | 150 | 447 | 10 | 607 | 24.7% | 73.6% | R+48.9 |
| Precinct -COBDEN 1COBDEN 1 | 233 | 352 | 17 | 602 | 38.7% | 58.5% | R+19.8 |
| Precinct -ANNA 3ANNA 3 | 157 | 357 | 15 | 529 | 29.7% | 67.5% | R+37.8 |
| Precinct -JONESBORO 1JONESBORO 1 | 116 | 371 | 5 | 492 | 23.6% | 75.4% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct -ANNA 7ANNA 7 | 116 | 336 | 11 | 463 | 25.1% | 72.6% | R+47.5 |
| Precinct -DONGOLA 1DONGOLA 1 | 93 | 348 | 6 | 447 | 20.8% | 77.9% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct -ANNA 1ANNA 1 | 145 | 279 | 13 | 437 | 33.2% | 63.8% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -ANNA 4ANNA 4 | 112 | 244 | 9 | 365 | 30.7% | 66.8% | R+36.2 |
| Precinct -STOKESSTOKES | 73 | 288 | 2 | 363 | 20.1% | 79.3% | R+59.2 |
| Precinct -ANNA 5ANNA 5 | 108 | 240 | 14 | 362 | 29.8% | 66.3% | R+36.5 |
| Precinct -ANNA 6ANNA 6 | 114 | 237 | 11 | 362 | 31.5% | 65.5% | R+34.0 |
| Precinct -JONESBORO 3JONESBORO 3 | 92 | 257 | 10 | 359 | 25.6% | 71.6% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -UNIONUNION | 50 | 291 | 12 | 353 | 14.2% | 82.4% | R+68.3 |
| Precinct -ALTO PASSALTO PASS | 128 | 212 | 12 | 352 | 36.4% | 60.2% | R+23.9 |
| Precinct -ANNA 2ANNA 2 | 94 | 235 | 12 | 341 | 27.6% | 68.9% | R+41.3 |
| Precinct -BALCOMBALCOM | 51 | 173 | 5 | 229 | 22.3% | 75.5% | R+53.3 |
| Precinct -DONGOLA 2DONGOLA 2 | 40 | 177 | 5 | 222 | 18.0% | 79.7% | R+61.7 |
| Precinct -MILL CREEKMILL CREEK | 38 | 89 | 2 | 129 | 29.5% | 69.0% | R+39.5 |
| ALTO PASS Voting District17_1718100115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNA 1 Voting District17_1718100101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNA 2 Voting District17_1718100102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNA 3 Voting District17_1718100103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNA 4 Voting District17_1718100104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNA 5 Voting District17_1718100105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNA 6 Voting District17_1718100106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNA 7 Voting District17_1718100121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BALCOM Voting District17_1718100117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COBDEN 1 Voting District17_1718100109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COBDEN 2 Voting District17_1718100110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DONGOLA 1 Voting District17_1718100111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DONGOLA 2 Voting District17_1718100112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JONESBORO 1 Voting District17_1718100107 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JONESBORO 2 Voting District17_1718100108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JONESBORO 3 Voting District17_1718100122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LICK CREEK Voting District17_1718100119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MILL CREEK Voting District17_1718100116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| STOKES Voting District17_1718100120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION 1 Voting District17_1718100113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +29.4% |
| 1896 | +23.6% |
| 1900 | +25.9% |
| 1904 | +11.1% |
| 1908 | +22.0% |
| 1912 | +33.1% |
| 1916 | +24.1% |
| 1920 | +7.9% |
| 1924 | +18.3% |
| 1928 | +10.6% |
| 1932 | +36.3% |
| 1936 | +20.0% |
| 1940 | +8.2% |
| 1944 | +3.0% |
| 1948 | +7.3% |
| 1952 | −4.0% |
| 1956 | +1.8% |
| 1960 | −1.3% |
| 1964 | +24.7% |
| 1968 | −3.4% |
| 1972 | −18.9% |
| 1976 | +17.2% |
| 1980 | −6.0% |
| 1984 | −10.6% |
| 1988 | −0.6% |
| 1992 | +18.5% |
| 1996 | +13.3% |
| 2000 | −4.8% |
| 2004 | −17.5% |
| 2008 | −11.9% |
| 2012 | −21.9% |
| 2016 | −39.3% |
| 2020 | −40.2% |
| 2024 | −43.2% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 14,982 |
| 2018 | 13,191 |
| 2020 | 12,907 |
| 2022 | 11,889 |
| 2024 | 13,563 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−83 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −968 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $49,360 in average income, against $64,612 for residents who stayed — 24% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+26.3 on average — 17 points more Democratic-leaning than Union County, IL itself (R+43.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jackson County, IL43D+3.5
- Williamson County, IL29R+38.7
- Pulaski County, IL24R+34.2
- Johnson County, IL23R+58.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Jackson County, IL44
- Williamson County, IL40
- Cape Girardeau County, MO22
- Johnson County, IL21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −34 |
| 2012 | −32 |
| 2013 | −23 |
| 2014 | −94 |
| 2015 | −80 |
| 2016 | −172 |
| 2017 | −82 |
| 2018 | −92 |
| 2019 | −129 |
| 2021 | −138 |
| 2022 | −42 |
| 2023 | −16 |
| 2024 | +49 |
| 2025 | −83 |
Union County sits in Illinois's rugged southern tip, where the Shawnee National Forest dominates the landscape and a dwindling rural population has shifted presidential margins decisively rightward over the past two decades, reaching R+43.2 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 36.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 43.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.2 points.
A population of 16,997, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,728 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Franklin County and Henry County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Union County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17181/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.