Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
39.9%13,773 participants ÷ 34,529 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+20.5 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state
-4.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
19.4%–28.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%
40.9%
25.5%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
13,773
34,529 ± 1,276
39.9%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
9,029
35,477 ± 1,362
25.5%
Audited
E/A
15,488
33,704 ± 1,184
46.0%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
13,556
33,129 ± 919
40.9%
Audited
E/A
14,251
32,462 ± 848
43.9%
Audited
E/A
14,750
31,546
46.8%
Derived
—
16,652
31,553
52.8%
Derived
—
12,693
31,560 extrapolated
40.2%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Elkhart, IN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
59.1%
9,836 votes · D+19.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 51.7%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
56.1%
7,117 votes · R+12.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 52.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
9,836votes
59.1% of the vote · D+19.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 7,628 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
7,315votes
48.8% of the vote · D+0.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 7,117 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
+12.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+19.5 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +1.4 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+9.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+12.2 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +6.1 pts
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
Elkhart · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Elkhart County, Indiana, the county containing Elkhart — Elkhart’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Elkhart, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Elkhart manufactures roughly 80% of the nation's recreational vehicles, tying its economic cycles tightly to consumer confidence and lending rates — a dynamic that has historically sharpened voter sensitivity to interest-rate and trade policy.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.5 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 12.2 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 7.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.8 points.
A population of 53,733, a 56% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $51,028 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Anderson and Terrell.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Elkhart, Indiana voted Republican by 6.8 points (R+6.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 13,516 votes cast, 6,190 went Democratic and 7,113 went Republican.
When did Elkhart, Indiana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Elkhart, Indiana voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Elkhart, Indiana?
Elkhart, Indiana has a population of 53,733 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Elkhart, Indiana?
Median household income in Elkhart, Indiana is $51,028 — below the national median of $80,734. The Indiana state median is $71,957.
What is the political history of Elkhart, Indiana?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Elkhart, Indiana from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.
