HarrisDemocratic46.1%18,743TrumpRepublican51.9%21,108OtherAll other candidates2.0%823
R+5.8- Lead
- 2,365
- Total
- 40,674
- vs nation
- R+4.3
- Turnout
- —
Akashiccity
Wesley Chapel, FL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic50.8%18,153TrumpRepublican47.8%17,097OtherAll other candidates1.4%492
D+3.0- Lead
- 1,056
- Total
- 35,742
- vs nation
- R+1.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic46.6%11,989TrumpRepublican48.5%12,476OtherAll other candidates4.9%1,260
R+1.9- Lead
- 487
- Total
- 25,725
- vs nation
- R+4.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic46.5%10,335RomneyRepublican52.2%11,602OtherAll other candidates1.3%300
R+5.7- Lead
- 1,267
- Total
- 22,237
- vs nation
- R+9.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic49.7%9,942McCainRepublican49.4%9,878OtherAll other candidates0.9%182
D+0.3- Lead
- 64
- Total
- 20,002
- vs nation
- R+7.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic46.6%8,215BushRepublican52.3%9,232OtherAll other candidates1.1%198
R+5.8- Lead
- 1,017
- Total
- 17,645
- vs nation
- R+3.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 76,0112024 5-year
- Median household income
- $107,5042024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 50.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 11.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 24.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+3.0 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+5.8 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Clermont, FL · twin score 82.4
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −5.8% |
| 2008 | +0.3% |
| 2012 | −5.7% |
| 2016 | −1.9% |
| 2020 | +3.0% |
| 2024 | −5.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 46.1%Harris18,743 | 51.9%Trump21,108 | 2.0% | R+5.8 | R+8.8 | R+4.3 | 40,674 | |
| D | 50.8%Biden18,153 | 47.8%Trump17,097 | 1.4% | D+3.0 | D+4.8 | R+1.5 | 35,742 | |
| R | 46.6%Clinton11,989 | 48.5%Trump12,476 | 4.9% | R+1.9 | D+3.8 | R+4.0 | 25,725 | |
| R | 46.5%Obama10,335 | 52.2%Romney11,602 | 1.3% | R+5.7 | R+6.0 | R+9.6 | 22,237 | |
| D | 49.7%Obama9,942 | 49.4%McCain9,878 | 0.9% | D+0.3 | — | R+7.0 | 20,002 | |
| R | 46.6%Kerry8,215 | 52.3%Bush9,232 | 1.1% | R+5.8 | — | R+3.3 | 17,645 |
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 46.1%18,166 | 53.9%21,278 | 39,444 |
| 2020 | R | 48.8%17,140 | 51.2%17,988 | 35,128 |
Wesley Chapel has nearly tripled in population since 2010, drawing younger families and diverse professional migrants from Tampa's metro core — a demographic mix that has made its precinct-level results increasingly competitive in statewide cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 3.0 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 5.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 8.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.8 points.
A population of 76,011, a 51% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $107,504 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Clermont and Winter Garden.
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Clermont
Florida
82.4twin score
population scalePuerto Rican ancestrycollege share
Winter Garden
Florida
82.0twin score
population scalePuerto Rican ancestrymedian income
Lakeland
Florida
81.2twin score
population scalePuerto Rican ancestryAmerican ancestry≠ median income
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Wesley Chapel, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/1275875/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Florida at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Wesley Chapel, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Wesley Chapel, Florida voted Republican by 5.8 points (R+5.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 40,674 votes cast, 18,743 went Democratic and 21,108 went Republican.
When did Wesley Chapel, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Wesley Chapel, Florida voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Wesley Chapel, Florida?
Wesley Chapel, Florida has a population of 76,011 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Wesley Chapel, Florida?
Median household income in Wesley Chapel, Florida is $107,504 — above the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Wesley Chapel, Florida?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Wesley Chapel, Florida from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 4 went Republican.