- Lead
- 59,917
- Total
- 295,662
- vs nation
- R+18.8
Florida 21st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 44,309
- Total
- 308,705
- vs nation
- R+18.8
- Lead
- 41,937
- Total
- 266,667
- vs nation
- R+17.8
- Lead
- 14,638
- Total
- 243,564
- vs nation
- R+9.9
- Lead
- 8,134
- Total
- 245,396
- vs nation
- R+10.6
- Lead
- 25,224
- Total
- 232,801
- vs nation
- R+8.4
- Lead
- 9,102
- Total
- 192,671
- vs nation
- R+5.2
- Lead
- 5,688
- Total
- 180,070
- vs nation
- R+5.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 535,0302024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,182 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 245 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $68,9592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+84.2 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.8 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 33, FL · twin score 91.9
presidential history
Party record book
Florida 21st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2000–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
47.6%
116,847 votes · R+3.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 46.2%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
59.7%
176,627 votes · R+20.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 56.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
130,615votes
42.3% of the vote · R+14.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 116,847 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
176,627votes
59.7% of the vote · R+20.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 174,924 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
−5.2pts D vs U.S.
Place R+4.7 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · −8.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+18.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+14.4 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +18.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 20.3-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, this district ranks among Florida's most consistently one-sided. Its population of 535,000 suggests a sprawling or predominantly rural footprint that anchors the state's conservative base.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 84.2 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 49.8 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 20.3 points.
A population of 535,030, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,959 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 33 and State Senate District 11.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Florida 21st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/12021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.