Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
55.4%12,184 participants ÷ 22,010 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+28.3 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+5.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
27.1%–33.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
53.7%
38.7%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
12,184
22,010 ± 1,251
55.4%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
7,166
18,508 ± 1,231
38.7%
Audited
E/A
10,728
16,014 ± 1,178
67.0%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
7,377
13,735 ± 774
53.7%
Audited
E/A
8,633
12,638 ± 698
68.3%
Audited
E/A
5,215
10,829
48.2%
Derived
—
6,506
10,344
62.9%
Derived
—
5,355
9,859 extrapolated
54.3%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Haines City, FL · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
66.1%
3,449 votes · D+33.3
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 63.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
46.7%
5,664 votes · D+5.3
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 42.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
6,399votes
59.8% of the vote · D+20.8
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 6,305 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
5,664votes
46.7% of the vote · D+5.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 4,180 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+29.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+33.3 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +28.2 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
−6.8pts R vs U.S.
Place D+5.3 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · −16.3 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Haines City · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Polk County, Florida, the county containing Haines City — Haines City’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Haines City, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Haines City sits in the Interstate 4 corridor between Orlando and Tampa, a stretch that has seen some of Florida's sharpest population growth. The city's expanding Latino community and steady influx of out-of-state migrants make its voter composition a moving target cycle to cycle.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.3 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 15.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.3 points.
A population of 34,234, a 26% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,975 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Kissimmee and Buenaventura Lakes.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Haines City, Florida voted Democratic by 5.3 points (D+5.3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 12,119 votes cast, 6,305 went Democratic and 5,664 went Republican.
How many people live in Haines City, Florida?
Haines City, Florida has a population of 34,234 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Haines City, Florida?
Median household income in Haines City, Florida is $65,975 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Haines City, Florida?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Haines City, Florida from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
