HarrisDemocratic39.2%136,879TrumpRepublican59.9%209,044SteinIndependent0.3%1,027
R+20.7- Lead
- 72,165
- Total
- 348,931
- vs nation
- R+19.2
Akashicmetro area
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
1 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic42.3%145,049TrumpRepublican56.7%194,586OtherAll other candidates1.1%3,621
R+14.4- Lead
- 49,537
- Total
- 343,256
- vs nation
- R+18.9
ClintonDemocratic41.3%117,433TrumpRepublican55.4%157,430OtherAll other candidates3.3%9,451
R+14.1- Lead
- 39,997
- Total
- 284,314
- vs nation
- R+16.2
ObamaDemocratic46.1%114,622RomneyRepublican52.9%131,577OtherAll other candidates1.0%2,484
R+6.8- Lead
- 16,955
- Total
- 248,683
- vs nation
- R+10.7
ObamaDemocratic46.5%113,865McCainRepublican52.6%128,878OtherAll other candidates0.9%2,090
R+6.1- Lead
- 15,013
- Total
- 244,833
- vs nation
- R+13.4
KerryDemocratic40.8%86,009BushRepublican58.6%123,559OtherAll other candidates0.6%1,262
R+17.8- Lead
- 37,550
- Total
- 210,830
- vs nation
- R+15.4
GoreDemocratic44.6%75,207BushRepublican53.6%90,310OtherAll other candidates1.8%3,112
R+9.0- Lead
- 15,103
- Total
- 168,629
- vs nation
- R+9.5
ClintonDemocratic44.4%66,747DoleRepublican45.3%67,962OtherAll other candidates10.3%15,464
R+0.8- Lead
- 1,215
- Total
- 150,173
- vs nation
- R+9.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 790,6942024 5-year
- Population density
- 440 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,798 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $65,9782024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 50.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 14.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 29.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+81.9 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57.2 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL · twin score 79.4
presidential history
Party record book
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1892
81.9%
869 votes · D+81.9
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · 81.4%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
78.4%
60,748 votes · R+57.2
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 70.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
145,049votes
42.3% of the vote · R+14.4
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 136,879 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
209,044votes
59.9% of the vote · R+20.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 194,586 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Alton B. Parker1904
+89.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+69.7 · U.S. R+19.7
Runner-up · Grover Cleveland, 1892 · +80.2 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+34.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+57.2 · U.S. R+23.2
Runner-up · Barry Goldwater, 1964 · +32.6 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+11.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+20.7
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 9.7 points more Republican than the rolls.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 400,710 | 143,492 | 143,801 | 111,519 | 1,898 |
| 2018 | 420,816 | 148,241 | 150,308 | 119,157 | 3,110 |
| 2019 | 443,783 | 153,445 | 157,199 | 128,582 | 4,557 |
| 2020 | 476,015 | 162,891 | 174,746 | 131,277 | 7,101 |
| 2021 | 464,375 | 155,647 | 170,929 | 129,736 | 8,063 |
| 2023 | 430,611 | 132,013 | 172,953 | 115,059 | 10,586 |
| 2024 | 468,295 | 140,190 | 191,492 | 122,295 | 14,318 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+18,752 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +208,643 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +3,044 |
| 2012 | +1,801 |
| 2013 | +4,020 |
| 2014 | +7,783 |
| 2015 | +10,410 |
| 2016 | +13,345 |
| 2017 | +15,193 |
| 2018 | +16,911 |
| 2019 | +16,638 |
| 2021 | +27,123 |
| 2022 | +28,989 |
| 2023 | +25,219 |
| 2024 | +19,415 |
| 2025 | +18,752 |
Once anchored by agricultural employment, the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro has urbanized rapidly, drawing working-class and retiree migrants who have tilted its competitive margins toward double-digit Republican advantages in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 81.9 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 57.2 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 6.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 20.7 points.
A population of 790,694, a 51% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,978 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL.
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
79.4twin score
Puerto Rican ancestry% Latino% White≠ college share
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
72.7twin score
Puerto Rican ancestry% Whiteelasticity≠ % Catholic
Ocala, FL
70.2twin score
Puerto Rican ancestrypopulation scale% unaffiliated≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/29460/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida voted Republican by 20.7 points (R+20.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 348,931 votes cast, 136,879 went Democratic and 209,044 went Republican.
When did Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida?
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida has a population of 790,694 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida?
Median household income in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida is $65,978 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Florida from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.