† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupNogalesArizonaUnited States
Mexican90.7%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.5%0.7%1.8%
Spaniard0.3%0.5%—
Salvadoran0.2%0.3%0.7%
German4.6%12.6%12.5%
English3.4%10.2%9.5%
Irish3.0%8.9%9.4%
Italian1.8%4.1%4.8%
American1.6%4.0%5.3%
Swedish1.0%——
French0.8%1.8%1.6%
Dutch0.8%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Nogales
Arizona
United States
Median age
36.4
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
8.8%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
18.8%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Nogales
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$43,214
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
28.0%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
17.6%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Nogales
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
90.4%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
90.0%
19.3%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
Nogales
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Nogales, Arizona
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
+35.7%
2008
+46.3%
2012
+58.9%
2016
+69.4%
2020
+53.1%
2024
+36.2%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
D
67.7%Harris4,144
31.5%Trump1,929
0.8%
D+36.2
R+16.9
D+37.7
6,121
D
76.0%Biden5,187
22.9%Trump1,562
1.1%
D+53.1
R+16.3
D+48.7
6,823
D
82.5%Clinton5,054
13.1%Trump803
4.4%
D+69.4
D+10.5
D+67.3
6,127
D
78.7%Obama4,061
19.9%Romney1,026
1.4%
D+58.9
D+12.6
D+55.0
5,157
D
72.7%Obama3,847
26.4%McCain1,397
0.9%
D+46.3
D+10.6
D+39.0
5,292
D
67.8%Kerry3,044
32.1%Bush1,443
0.1%
D+35.7
—
D+38.1
4,490
Nogales sits at one of Arizona's busiest land crossings, and its overwhelmingly Latino electorate — over 95% Hispanic by census estimates — has produced some of the most lopsided Democratic margins of any Arizona municipality.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.4 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 16.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.2 points.
A population of 19,841, a 3% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $43,214 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Douglas and Garnet.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Nogales, Arizona voted Democratic by 36.2 points (D+36.2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 6,121 votes cast, 4,144 went Democratic and 1,929 went Republican.
How many people live in Nogales, Arizona?
Nogales, Arizona has a population of 19,841 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Nogales, Arizona?
Median household income in Nogales, Arizona is $43,214 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Nogales, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Nogales, Arizona from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
