Kentucky votes two ways. For president it sits near the Republican floor — Donald Trump carried it by 30.5 points in 2024, up from 25.9 in 2020 and a 16-point Republican margin in 2000, after the state had backed Bill Clinton twice in the 1990s. Yet the same electorate elected Democrat Andy Beshear governor in 2019 and returned him in 2023, alongside a Democratic registration plurality that held until 2024, when Republicans first passed it, 46.9 percent of registered voters to 42.3. The gap between how Kentucky votes for Washington and how it votes for Frankfort is among the widest of any state.
Two counties carry the Democratic vote. Jefferson County, which holds Louisville, went Democratic by 16.5 points in 2024; Fayette County, around Lexington, by 18.1 — the bluest county in the state. Together they cast more than a fifth of Kentucky’s ballots. Everywhere else runs Republican, and nowhere has the ground moved further than the eastern coalfield. Pike County, the largest of them, voted Democratic by 29.6 points in 1996 and Republican by 65.4 in 2024 — a 95-point shift. Floyd County moved 104 points across the same span, Harlan 101. Martin County, in the far east, is now the reddest in Kentucky at 83.6 points Republican.
The profile underneath is poor and heavily Protestant. Median household income was $63,726 in the 2024 ACS, 46th of the fifty states; 27.7 percent of adults hold a bachelor’s degree, also 46th; and the poverty rate is 16.1 percent, 46th. Kentucky ranks sixth in Evangelical adherents, at 31.3 percent. In 2026 the state will fill the U.S. Senate seat that Mitch McConnell, first elected in 1984, is leaving open: Representative Andy Barr won the Republican nomination and faces Democrat Charles Booker, who carried the May 19 primary. The governorship is not on the ballot until 2027.