- Lead
- 1,442
- Total
- 2,758
- vs nation
- R+50.8
- Turnout
- 54.1%
Ellsworth County, KS
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 54.1% of 5,171 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,500
- Total
- 2,853
- vs nation
- R+57.0
- Turnout
- 57.6%
- Lead
- 1,448
- Total
- 2,706
- vs nation
- R+55.6
- Turnout
- 54.3%
- Lead
- 1,228
- Total
- 2,712
- vs nation
- R+49.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,170
- Total
- 2,938
- vs nation
- R+47.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,458
- Total
- 3,102
- vs nation
- R+44.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,020
- Total
- 2,839
- vs nation
- R+36.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,179
- Total
- 3,240
- vs nation
- R+44.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+52.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 6,3602024 5-year
- Median household income
- $65,5602024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+30.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+53.5 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cheyenne County, NE · twin score 93.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 54.1%2,796 participants ÷ 5,171 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.2%–43.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,767 | 5,097 | 54.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,343 | 5,033 | 46.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 2,850 | 4,951 | 57.6% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,308 | 5,169 | 44.7% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 2,796 | 5,171 | 54.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
50 precincts · 2,758 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -KS053000240KS053000240 | 105 | 307 | 9 | 421 | 24.9% | 72.9% | R+48.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -KS05300009AKS05300009A | 100 | 256 | 4 | 360 | 27.8% | 71.1% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -KS053000070KS053000070 | 84 | 228 | 7 | 319 | 26.3% | 71.5% | R+45.1 |
| Precinct -KS053000080KS053000080 | 96 | 192 | 7 | 295 | 32.5% | 65.1% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct -KS053000220KS053000220 | 43 | 217 | 1 | 261 | 16.5% | 83.1% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -KS053000130KS053000130 | 71 | 179 | 4 | 254 | 28.0% | 70.5% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct -KS053000100KS053000100 | 20 | 68 | 4 | 92 | 21.7% | 73.9% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct -KS053000120KS053000120 | 18 | 62 | 1 | 81 | 22.2% | 76.5% | R+54.3 |
| Precinct -KS053000050KS053000050 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 59 | 8.5% | 91.5% | R+83.1 |
| Precinct -KS053000230KS053000230 | 16 | 42 | 1 | 59 | 27.1% | 71.2% | R+44.1 |
| Precinct -KS053000020KS053000020 | 14 | 38 | 0 | 52 | 26.9% | 73.1% | R+46.2 |
| Precinct -KS053000140KS053000140 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 44 | 6.8% | 90.9% | R+84.1 |
| Precinct -KS053000170KS053000170 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 44 | 11.4% | 88.6% | R+77.3 |
| Precinct -KS053000190KS053000190 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 44 | 6.8% | 90.9% | R+84.1 |
| Precinct -KS053000030KS053000030 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 42 | 7.1% | 92.9% | R+85.7 |
| Precinct -KS053000040KS053000040 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 38 | 15.8% | 84.2% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct -KS05300009BKS05300009B | 13 | 23 | 1 | 37 | 35.1% | 62.2% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct -KS053000150KS053000150 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 37 | 18.9% | 81.1% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -KS053000200KS053000200 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 37 | 5.4% | 94.6% | R+89.2 |
| Precinct -KS053000180KS053000180 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 36 | 22.2% | 75.0% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct -KS053000010KS053000010 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 35 | 8.6% | 91.4% | R+82.9 |
| Precinct -KS053000060KS053000060 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 34 | 2.9% | 94.1% | R+91.2 |
| Precinct -KS053000110KS053000110 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 29 | 3.4% | 96.6% | R+93.1 |
| Precinct -KS053000210KS053000210 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 26 | 3.8% | 96.2% | R+92.3 |
| Precinct -KS053000160KS053000160 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 22 | 36.4% | 59.1% | R+22.7 |
| Ash Creek Township Voting District20_20053000010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Black Wolf Township Voting District20_20053000020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Buckeye Township Voting District20_20053000030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Canren Township Voting District20_2005300009B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Carneiro Township Voting District20_20053000040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Clear Creek Township Voting District20_20053000050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Columbia Township Voting District20_20053000060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ellsworth City East Ward 120_20053000070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ellsworth City East Ward 220_20053000080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ellsworth City West Voting District20_2005300009A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ellsworth Township Voting District20_20053000100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Garfield Township Voting District20_20053000110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Green Garden Township Voting District20_20053000120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kanopolis Township Voting District20_20053000130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Langley Township Voting District20_20053000140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln Township Voting District20_20053000150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mulberry Township Voting District20_20053000160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Noble Township Voting District20_20053000170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Palacky Township Voting District20_20053000180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sherman Township Voting District20_20053000190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thomas Township Voting District20_20053000200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Trivoli Township Voting District20_20053000210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valley Township Voting District20_20053000220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Venango Township Voting District20_20053000230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilson Township Voting District20_20053000240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −49.8% |
| 1896 | −2.7% |
| 1900 | −13.9% |
| 1904 | −39.3% |
| 1908 | −7.6% |
| 1912 | +30.0% |
| 1916 | −0.2% |
| 1920 | −34.0% |
| 1924 | −34.3% |
| 1928 | −21.2% |
| 1932 | +28.7% |
| 1936 | +18.4% |
| 1940 | −8.6% |
| 1944 | −15.4% |
| 1948 | −6.8% |
| 1952 | −49.9% |
| 1956 | −30.2% |
| 1960 | −19.0% |
| 1964 | +20.1% |
| 1968 | −23.2% |
| 1972 | −33.1% |
| 1976 | −1.4% |
| 1980 | −38.8% |
| 1984 | −43.9% |
| 1988 | −16.4% |
| 1992 | −5.8% |
| 1996 | −36.4% |
| 2000 | −35.9% |
| 2004 | −47.0% |
| 2008 | −39.8% |
| 2012 | −45.3% |
| 2016 | −53.5% |
| 2020 | −52.6% |
| 2024 | −52.3% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 5.7 points more Democratic.
3,853 registered voters · 2025
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−28 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −209 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $51,278 in average income, against $71,665 for residents who stayed — 28% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Saline County, KS24
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −24 |
| 2012 | +5 |
| 2013 | −87 |
| 2014 | +16 |
| 2015 | −6 |
| 2016 | +14 |
| 2017 | +21 |
| 2018 | −102 |
| 2019 | −49 |
| 2021 | +1 |
| 2022 | +92 |
| 2023 | +5 |
| 2024 | −67 |
| 2025 | −28 |
Ellsworth County sits along the historic Chisholm Trail corridor in central Kansas, where a ranching and agricultural economy has anchored durable Republican supermajorities across nearly every recent election cycle.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 30.0 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 53.5 points in 2016. The 2024 margin was 52.3 points.
A population of 6,360, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,560 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cheyenne County and Clay County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Ellsworth County, Kansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/20053/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.