HarrisDemocratic18.4%1,059TrumpRepublican80.2%4,627KennedyIndependent1.4%82
R+61.8- Lead
- 3,568
- Total
- 5,769
- vs nation
- R+60.4
- Turnout
- 72.5%
Akashiccounty
Cumberland County, IL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 72.5% of 8,010 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic19.5%1,142TrumpRepublican78.7%4,601JorgensenLibertarian1.1%63
R+59.1- Lead
- 3,459
- Total
- 5,849
- vs nation
- R+63.6
- Turnout
- 70.5%
ClintonDemocratic18.5%1,031TrumpRepublican75.5%4,206JohnsonLibertarian4.3%238
R+57.0- Lead
- 3,175
- Total
- 5,571
- vs nation
- R+59.1
- Turnout
- 66.7%
ObamaDemocratic31.0%1,641RomneyRepublican66.3%3,509JOHNSONLibertarian1.8%96
R+35.3- Lead
- 1,868
- Total
- 5,295
- vs nation
- R+39.1
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic38.6%2,055McCainRepublican59.3%3,156OtherAll other candidates2.1%110
R+20.7- Lead
- 1,101
- Total
- 5,321
- vs nation
- R+28.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic34.4%1,862BushRepublican64.6%3,497OtherAll other candidates1.1%57
R+30.2- Lead
- 1,635
- Total
- 5,416
- vs nation
- R+27.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic37.6%1,870BushRepublican59.6%2,964NaderGreen1.4%72
R+22.0- Lead
- 1,094
- Total
- 4,975
- vs nation
- R+22.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic39.7%1,776DoleRepublican44.8%2,002PerotReform14.7%657
R+5.1- Lead
- 226
- Total
- 4,469
- vs nation
- R+13.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+61.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 10,3342024 5-year
- Median household income
- $73,3272024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 95.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+19.9 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.8 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Montgomery County, MO · twin score 90.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 72.5%5,810 participants ÷ 8,010 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +10.0 ptsHigh-turnout, durable
- Drop-off versus state
- -12.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 60.7%–62.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,571 | 8,348 | 66.7% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,417 | 8,326 | 53.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,849 | 8,300 | 70.5% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,842 | 8,005 | 60.5% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,810 | 8,010 | 72.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
27 precincts · 5,810 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -NEOGA 1-3NEOGA 1-3 | 196 | 552 | 24 | 772 | 25.4% | 71.5% | R+46.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -SPRING POINT-4SPRING POINT-4 | 44 | 584 | 10 | 638 | 6.9% | 91.5% | R+84.6 |
| Precinct -SUMPTER 1-2SUMPTER 1-2 | 136 | 376 | 10 | 522 | 26.1% | 72.0% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -SUMPTER 2-2SUMPTER 2-2 | 86 | 402 | 8 | 496 | 17.3% | 81.0% | R+63.7 |
| Precinct -GREENUP 2-1GREENUP 2-1 | 85 | 383 | 11 | 479 | 17.7% | 80.0% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -UNION-1UNION-1 | 61 | 326 | 6 | 393 | 15.5% | 83.0% | R+67.4 |
| Precinct -GREENUP 1-1GREENUP 1-1 | 85 | 290 | 8 | 383 | 22.2% | 75.7% | R+53.5 |
| Precinct -NEOGA 2-3NEOGA 2-3 | 58 | 291 | 10 | 359 | 16.2% | 81.1% | R+64.9 |
| Precinct -GREENUP 3-1GREENUP 3-1 | 91 | 254 | 7 | 352 | 25.9% | 72.2% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct -WOODBURY-2WOODBURY-2 | 48 | 279 | 7 | 334 | 14.4% | 83.5% | R+69.2 |
| Precinct -COTTONWOOD-2COTTONWOOD-2 | 44 | 256 | 7 | 307 | 14.3% | 83.4% | R+69.1 |
| Precinct -NEOGA 2-2NEOGA 2-2 | 56 | 222 | 8 | 286 | 19.6% | 77.6% | R+58.0 |
| Precinct -CROOKED CREEK-1CROOKED CREEK-1 | 37 | 172 | 4 | 213 | 17.4% | 80.8% | R+63.4 |
| Precinct -SPRING POINT-3SPRING POINT-3 | 17 | 164 | 3 | 184 | 9.2% | 89.1% | R+79.9 |
| Precinct -NEOGA 1-2NEOGA 1-2 | 15 | 76 | 1 | 92 | 16.3% | 82.6% | R+66.3 |
| COTTONWOOD Voting District17_1703500201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CROOKED CREEK Voting District17_1703500801 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREENUP 1 Voting District17_1703500701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREENUP 2 Voting District17_1703500702 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREENUP 3 Voting District17_1703500703 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NEOGA 1 Voting District17_1703500301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NEOGA 2 Voting District17_1703500302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SPRING POINT Voting District17_1703500401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMPTER 1 Voting District17_1703500601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMPTER 2 Voting District17_1703500602 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION 1 Voting District17_1703500101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WOODBURY Voting District17_1703500501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +8.8% |
| 1896 | +6.1% |
| 1900 | +3.1% |
| 1904 | −5.8% |
| 1908 | +1.9% |
| 1912 | +19.9% |
| 1916 | +1.4% |
| 1920 | −17.5% |
| 1924 | −5.9% |
| 1928 | −26.6% |
| 1932 | +18.1% |
| 1936 | +4.3% |
| 1940 | −3.7% |
| 1944 | −6.1% |
| 1948 | −2.0% |
| 1952 | −20.0% |
| 1956 | −17.5% |
| 1960 | −9.9% |
| 1964 | +15.2% |
| 1968 | −16.8% |
| 1972 | −21.9% |
| 1976 | +4.4% |
| 1980 | −24.0% |
| 1984 | −26.6% |
| 1988 | −16.6% |
| 1992 | +4.8% |
| 1996 | −5.1% |
| 2000 | −22.0% |
| 2004 | −30.2% |
| 2008 | −20.7% |
| 2012 | −35.3% |
| 2016 | −57.0% |
| 2020 | −59.1% |
| 2024 | −61.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 8,322 |
| 2018 | 8,035 |
| 2020 | 8,055 |
| 2022 | 7,820 |
| 2024 | 7,739 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−48 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −518 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $61,032 in average income, against $75,602 for residents who stayed — 19% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+36.6 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than Cumberland County, IL itself (R+61.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Coles County, IL70R+28.4
- Effingham County, IL24R+60.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Coles County, IL64
- Effingham County, IL36
- Clark County, IL25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +20 |
| 2012 | −155 |
| 2013 | −59 |
| 2014 | −18 |
| 2015 | −55 |
| 2016 | −6 |
| 2017 | −18 |
| 2018 | −68 |
| 2019 | −48 |
| 2021 | −71 |
| 2022 | +1 |
| 2023 | −15 |
| 2024 | +22 |
| 2025 | −48 |
Cumberland County's R+61.9 margin in 2024 places it among the deepest-red counties in a state better known for competitive statewide races, reflecting a rural, small-population base where presidential preferences have shifted dramatically over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 61.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.8 points.
A population of 10,334, a 95% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,327 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Montgomery County and Harrison County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Montgomery County
Missouri
90.0twin score
12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
Harrison County
Indiana
89.7twin score
12-yr trend% unaffiliated% White
Jasper County
Illinois
89.5twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ English ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Cumberland County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17035/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Cumberland County, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Cumberland County, Illinois voted Republican by 61.8 points (R+61.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,769 votes cast, 1,059 went Democratic and 4,627 went Republican.
When did Cumberland County, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Cumberland County, Illinois voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Cumberland County, Illinois?
Cumberland County, Illinois has a population of 10,334 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Cumberland County, Illinois?
Median household income in Cumberland County, Illinois is $73,327 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $83,390.
What is the political history of Cumberland County, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Cumberland County, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 23 went Republican.