- Lead
- 28,704
- Total
- 175,164
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Turnout
- 56.6%
Mobile County, AL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 56.6% of 310,892 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 21,769
- Total
- 183,164
- vs nation
- R+16.3
- Turnout
- 59.0%
- Lead
- 22,930
- Total
- 170,593
- vs nation
- R+15.5
- Turnout
- 56.3%
- Lead
- 16,133
- Total
- 174,864
- vs nation
- R+13.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 15,868
- Total
- 181,424
- vs nation
- R+16.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 28,282
- Total
- 156,771
- vs nation
- R+15.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 19,522
- Total
- 139,745
- vs nation
- R+14.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 12,026
- Total
- 130,103
- vs nation
- R+17.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+16.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 412,5902024 5-year
- Median household income
- $58,8802024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 54.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 35.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+82.1 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+70.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Caddo Parish, LA · twin score 93.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 56.6%176,019 participants ÷ 310,892 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 32.8%–38.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 173,841 | 308,976 | 56.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 133,485 | 310,673 | 43.0% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 183,803 | 311,790 | 59.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 109,556 | 312,103 | 35.1% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 176,019 | 310,892 | 56.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
80 precincts · 175,164 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -ABBA SHRINE TEMPLEABBA SHRINE TEMPLE | 1,863 | 3,110 | 94 | 5,067 | 36.8% | 61.4% | R+24.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -SURGE CHURCHSURGE CHURCH | 1,374 | 3,490 | 57 | 4,921 | 27.9% | 70.9% | R+43.0 |
| Precinct -BURNS MIDDLE SCHOOLBURNS MIDDLE SCHOOL | 2,149 | 2,667 | 87 | 4,903 | 43.8% | 54.4% | R+10.6 |
| Precinct -CREEKWOOD CH OF CHRISTCREEKWOOD CH OF CHRIST | 1,526 | 3,223 | 79 | 4,828 | 31.6% | 66.8% | R+35.1 |
| Precinct -DESTINATION CHURCHDESTINATION CHURCH | 947 | 3,597 | 45 | 4,589 | 20.6% | 78.4% | R+57.7 |
| Precinct -MEADOWLAKE ELEM_MEADOWLAKE ELEM_ | 1,071 | 3,265 | 36 | 4,372 | 24.5% | 74.7% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -REGENCY CH OF CHRISTREGENCY CH OF CHRIST | 1,875 | 2,300 | 83 | 4,258 | 44.0% | 54.0% | R+10.0 |
| Precinct -BAKER HIGH SCHBAKER HIGH SCH | 1,414 | 2,773 | 69 | 4,256 | 33.2% | 65.2% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -SEMMES FIRST BAPTISTSEMMES FIRST BAPTIST | 1,870 | 2,225 | 42 | 4,137 | 45.2% | 53.8% | R+8.6 |
| Precinct -1ST BAPTIST CH SATSUMA1ST BAPTIST CH SATSUMA | 575 | 3,342 | 31 | 3,948 | 14.6% | 84.7% | R+70.1 |
| Precinct -VIA_ SENIOR CTRVIA_ SENIOR CTR | 1,689 | 1,944 | 125 | 3,758 | 44.9% | 51.7% | R+6.8 |
| Precinct -OUR SAVIOR CATHOLIC CHOUR SAVIOR CATHOLIC CH | 1,485 | 2,195 | 74 | 3,754 | 39.6% | 58.5% | R+18.9 |
| Precinct -TILLMANS CORNER COMM_ CTRTILLMANS CORNER COMM_ CTR | 974 | 2,675 | 41 | 3,690 | 26.4% | 72.5% | R+46.1 |
| Precinct -JAMES SEALS JR_ PARK & RECJAMES SEALS JR_ PARK & REC | 2,281 | 763 | 60 | 3,104 | 73.5% | 24.6% | D+48.9 |
| Precinct -INDEPENDENT LIVING CTRINDEPENDENT LIVING CTR | 2,276 | 741 | 43 | 3,060 | 74.4% | 24.2% | D+50.2 |
| Precinct -HOLY NAME OF JESUS CHHOLY NAME OF JESUS CH | 635 | 2,247 | 29 | 2,911 | 21.8% | 77.2% | R+55.4 |
| Precinct -BC RAIN HIGH SCHOOLBC RAIN HIGH SCHOOL | 1,651 | 1,155 | 44 | 2,850 | 57.9% | 40.5% | D+17.4 |
| Precinct -J_E_ TURNER ELEM_J_E_ TURNER ELEM_ | 392 | 2,426 | 28 | 2,846 | 13.8% | 85.2% | R+71.5 |
| Precinct -THE GRAND HALLTHE GRAND HALL | 1,882 | 908 | 47 | 2,837 | 66.3% | 32.0% | D+34.3 |
| Precinct -UNION BAPTIST CHURCHUNION BAPTIST CHURCH | 343 | 2,415 | 19 | 2,777 | 12.4% | 87.0% | R+74.6 |
| Precinct -THREE CIRCLE CH MIDTOWNTHREE CIRCLE CH MIDTOWN | 1,509 | 1,132 | 54 | 2,695 | 56.0% | 42.0% | D+14.0 |
| Precinct -DAVIDSON HIGH SCHDAVIDSON HIGH SCH | 1,821 | 802 | 52 | 2,675 | 68.1% | 30.0% | D+38.1 |
| Precinct -1ST BAPTIST CH OF WILMER1ST BAPTIST CH OF WILMER | 275 | 2,313 | 15 | 2,603 | 10.6% | 88.9% | R+78.3 |
| Precinct -FOREST HILL ELEMFOREST HILL ELEM | 1,984 | 558 | 31 | 2,573 | 77.1% | 21.7% | D+55.4 |
| Precinct -E_ R_ DICKSON ELEME_ R_ DICKSON ELEM | 700 | 1,819 | 51 | 2,570 | 27.2% | 70.8% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct -BAYOU LA BATRE COMM_ CTRBAYOU LA BATRE COMM_ CTR | 503 | 2,035 | 21 | 2,559 | 19.7% | 79.5% | R+59.9 |
| Precinct -1ST EVANGELICAL METHODIST1ST EVANGELICAL METHODIST | 444 | 2,081 | 22 | 2,547 | 17.4% | 81.7% | R+64.3 |
| Precinct -RISE CHURCHRISE CHURCH | 1,071 | 1,379 | 51 | 2,501 | 42.8% | 55.1% | R+12.3 |
| Precinct -COLLIER ELEMCOLLIER ELEM | 708 | 1,749 | 39 | 2,496 | 28.4% | 70.1% | R+41.7 |
| Precinct -COLLINS RHODES ELEMCOLLINS RHODES ELEM | 1,916 | 504 | 38 | 2,458 | 77.9% | 20.5% | D+57.4 |
| Precinct -LEINKAUF ELEMLEINKAUF ELEM | 1,948 | 353 | 28 | 2,329 | 83.6% | 15.2% | D+68.5 |
| Precinct -THE RIVERTHE RIVER | 441 | 1,834 | 17 | 2,292 | 19.2% | 80.0% | R+60.8 |
| Precinct -KATE SHEPARD ELEMKATE SHEPARD ELEM | 878 | 1,249 | 43 | 2,170 | 40.5% | 57.6% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct -ST_ PHILIP NERI CATHOLICST_ PHILIP NERI CATHOLIC | 337 | 1,769 | 24 | 2,130 | 15.8% | 83.1% | R+67.2 |
| Precinct -FRIENDSHIP BAPTIST CHFRIENDSHIP BAPTIST CH | 361 | 1,747 | 17 | 2,125 | 17.0% | 82.2% | R+65.2 |
| Precinct -ST_ PAULS EPISCOPAL CHST_ PAULS EPISCOPAL CH | 549 | 1,523 | 50 | 2,122 | 25.9% | 71.8% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct -MEMORIAL BAPTIST CHMEMORIAL BAPTIST CH | 458 | 1,635 | 12 | 2,105 | 21.8% | 77.7% | R+55.9 |
| Precinct -TURNERVILLE BAPTIST CHTURNERVILLE BAPTIST CH | 153 | 1,929 | 10 | 2,092 | 7.3% | 92.2% | R+84.9 |
| Precinct -SARALAND CIVIC CTRSARALAND CIVIC CTR | 348 | 1,701 | 33 | 2,082 | 16.7% | 81.7% | R+65.0 |
| Precinct -J_C_ DAVIS AUDITORIUMJ_C_ DAVIS AUDITORIUM | 931 | 1,086 | 36 | 2,053 | 45.3% | 52.9% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct -DODGE ELEM_DODGE ELEM_ | 893 | 1,131 | 28 | 2,052 | 43.5% | 55.1% | R+11.6 |
| Precinct -SEMMES COMM CTRSEMMES COMM CTR | 283 | 1,744 | 25 | 2,052 | 13.8% | 85.0% | R+71.2 |
| Precinct -AZALEA CITY CH OF CHRISTAZALEA CITY CH OF CHRIST | 879 | 1,028 | 23 | 1,930 | 45.5% | 53.3% | R+7.7 |
| Precinct -ST_ JOHN UMCST_ JOHN UMC | 1,430 | 453 | 26 | 1,909 | 74.9% | 23.7% | D+51.2 |
| Precinct -MAGNOLIA SPRINGS BAPTISTMAGNOLIA SPRINGS BAPTIST | 454 | 1,412 | 20 | 1,886 | 24.1% | 74.9% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct -MOBILE MUSEUM OF ARTMOBILE MUSEUM OF ART | 591 | 1,194 | 44 | 1,829 | 32.3% | 65.3% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct -COVENANT ACADEMY, INCCOVENANT ACADEMY, INC | 666 | 1,119 | 31 | 1,816 | 36.7% | 61.6% | R+24.9 |
| Precinct -ST_ ELMO ELEM_ST_ ELMO ELEM_ | 342 | 1,407 | 12 | 1,761 | 19.4% | 79.9% | R+60.5 |
| Precinct -CREOLA SENIOR CTRCREOLA SENIOR CTR | 322 | 1,411 | 18 | 1,751 | 18.4% | 80.6% | R+62.2 |
| Precinct -GRAND BAY MIDDLE SCHGRAND BAY MIDDLE SCH | 221 | 1,424 | 12 | 1,657 | 13.3% | 85.9% | R+72.6 |
| Precinct -MICHAEL FIGURES COMM CTRMICHAEL FIGURES COMM CTR | 1,506 | 52 | 13 | 1,571 | 95.9% | 3.3% | D+92.6 |
| Precinct -REVELATION MISSIONARYREVELATION MISSIONARY | 1,440 | 94 | 25 | 1,559 | 92.4% | 6.0% | D+86.3 |
| Precinct -SHELTON BEACH RD BAPTSHELTON BEACH RD BAPT | 474 | 1,064 | 17 | 1,555 | 30.5% | 68.4% | R+37.9 |
| Precinct -HOPE CHAPEL A_M_E_Z_HOPE CHAPEL A_M_E_Z_ | 1,326 | 86 | 8 | 1,420 | 93.4% | 6.1% | D+87.3 |
| Precinct -CLEARWATER CHRISTIAN CHCLEARWATER CHRISTIAN CH | 203 | 1,195 | 17 | 1,415 | 14.3% | 84.5% | R+70.1 |
| Precinct -CRAIGHEAD ELEMCRAIGHEAD ELEM | 1,312 | 62 | 13 | 1,387 | 94.6% | 4.5% | D+90.1 |
| Precinct -PINE GROVE MISSIONARY BAPT CHPINE GROVE MISSIONARY BAPT CH | 730 | 632 | 8 | 1,370 | 53.3% | 46.1% | D+7.2 |
| Precinct -HOLLINGERS ISLAND ELEMHOLLINGERS ISLAND ELEM | 214 | 1,128 | 15 | 1,357 | 15.8% | 83.1% | R+67.4 |
| Precinct -FRIENDSHIP MISSIONARYFRIENDSHIP MISSIONARY | 1,065 | 247 | 15 | 1,327 | 80.3% | 18.6% | D+61.6 |
| Precinct -CYPRESS SHORES BAPTISTCYPRESS SHORES BAPTIST | 208 | 962 | 10 | 1,180 | 17.6% | 81.5% | R+63.9 |
| Precinct -CHURCH OF THE ISLANDCHURCH OF THE ISLAND | 201 | 965 | 13 | 1,179 | 17.0% | 81.8% | R+64.8 |
| Precinct -HOLLOWAY ELEMHOLLOWAY ELEM | 1,112 | 44 | 13 | 1,169 | 95.1% | 3.8% | D+91.4 |
| Precinct -BISHOP STATEBISHOP STATE | 872 | 259 | 25 | 1,156 | 75.4% | 22.4% | D+53.0 |
| Precinct -FREEDOM HOUSE OF REVIVALFREEDOM HOUSE OF REVIVAL | 75 | 1,073 | 3 | 1,151 | 6.5% | 93.2% | R+86.7 |
| Precinct -BLOUNT HIGH SCHBLOUNT HIGH SCH | 293 | 817 | 15 | 1,125 | 26.0% | 72.6% | R+46.6 |
| Precinct -BURROUGHS ELEM_BURROUGHS ELEM_ | 743 | 308 | 8 | 1,059 | 70.2% | 29.1% | D+41.1 |
| Precinct -VIGOR HIGH SCHVIGOR HIGH SCH | 988 | 45 | 9 | 1,042 | 94.8% | 4.3% | D+90.5 |
| Precinct -JOSEPH DOTCH COMM CTRJOSEPH DOTCH COMM CTR | 974 | 36 | 17 | 1,027 | 94.8% | 3.5% | D+91.3 |
| Precinct -SUNLIGHT AUDITORIUMSUNLIGHT AUDITORIUM | 954 | 52 | 14 | 1,020 | 93.5% | 5.1% | D+88.4 |
| Precinct -MOBILE COMM_ ACTIONMOBILE COMM_ ACTION | 932 | 65 | 10 | 1,007 | 92.6% | 6.5% | D+86.1 |
| Precinct -PALMER PILLANS MIDDLEPALMER PILLANS MIDDLE | 509 | 457 | 15 | 981 | 51.9% | 46.6% | D+5.3 |
| Precinct -ST_ MICHAEL CATHOLIC CHST_ MICHAEL CATHOLIC CH | 153 | 823 | 4 | 980 | 15.6% | 84.0% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct -EICHOLD MERTZ ELEMEICHOLD MERTZ ELEM | 769 | 173 | 8 | 950 | 80.9% | 18.2% | D+62.7 |
| Precinct -ROBERT L_ HOPE COMM CTRROBERT L_ HOPE COMM CTR | 788 | 24 | 4 | 816 | 96.6% | 2.9% | D+93.6 |
| Precinct -BETHEL BAPTIST CHBETHEL BAPTIST CH | 65 | 714 | 4 | 783 | 8.3% | 91.2% | R+82.9 |
| Precinct -ROBBINS ELEMROBBINS ELEM | 748 | 24 | 7 | 779 | 96.0% | 3.1% | D+92.9 |
| Precinct -BOYS & GIRLS CLUB OF MOBILEBOYS & GIRLS CLUB OF MOBILE | 666 | 30 | 4 | 700 | 95.1% | 4.3% | D+90.9 |
| Precinct -PHILLIPS PREPARATORY SCHPHILLIPS PREPARATORY SCH | 599 | 60 | 10 | 669 | 89.5% | 9.0% | D+80.6 |
| Precinct -THOMAS SULLIVAN COMM CTRTHOMAS SULLIVAN COMM CTR | 403 | 21 | 4 | 428 | 94.2% | 4.9% | D+89.3 |
| Precinct -McDAVID JONES ELEMMcDAVID JONES ELEM | 45 | 265 | 6 | 316 | 14.2% | 83.9% | R+69.6 |
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | +11.0% |
| 1880 | +7.5% |
| 1884 | +0.3% |
| 1888 | +10.0% |
| 1892 | +60.7% |
| 1896 | +15.9% |
| 1900 | +12.9% |
| 1904 | +80.5% |
| 1908 | +61.0% |
| 1912 | +76.3% |
| 1916 | +54.8% |
| 1920 | +38.7% |
| 1924 | +36.4% |
| 1928 | +8.2% |
| 1932 | +69.4% |
| 1936 | +82.1% |
| 1940 | +71.1% |
| 1944 | +52.9% |
| 1948 | −19.4% |
| 1952 | +1.1% |
| 1956 | −8.8% |
| 1960 | +7.4% |
| 1964 | −70.7% |
| 1968 | +8.8% |
| 1972 | −49.0% |
| 1976 | −3.4% |
| 1980 | −18.2% |
| 1984 | −26.5% |
| 1988 | −22.5% |
| 1992 | −12.5% |
| 1996 | −9.2% |
| 2000 | −14.0% |
| 2004 | −18.0% |
| 2008 | −8.7% |
| 2012 | −9.2% |
| 2016 | −13.4% |
| 2020 | −11.9% |
| 2024 | −16.4% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 296,298 |
| 2020 | 315,446 |
| 2022 | 311,434 |
| 2024 | 322,520 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−996 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −20,621 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,215 in average income, against $71,503 for residents who stayed — 24% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+26.3 on average — 9.9 points more Republican-leaning than Mobile County, AL itself (R+16.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Baldwin County, AL842R+58.0
- Jackson County, MS262R+39.9
- Jefferson County, AL149D+10.4
- Escambia County, FL147R+19.5
- Washington County, AL129R+55.3
- Harrison County, MS127R+28.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Baldwin County, AL1,002
- Jackson County, MS247
- Jefferson County, AL205
- Escambia County, FL190
- Harris County, TX166
- Madison County, AL129
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −2,321 |
| 2012 | −1,514 |
| 2013 | −1,467 |
| 2014 | −1,548 |
| 2015 | −1,766 |
| 2016 | −1,363 |
| 2017 | −2,431 |
| 2018 | −1,677 |
| 2019 | −1,821 |
| 2021 | −1,330 |
| 2022 | −1,509 |
| 2023 | −364 |
| 2024 | −514 |
| 2025 | −996 |
Mobile County's port economy and sizable Black population—roughly 35% of residents—create a more competitive baseline than most of rural Alabama, yet the county still delivered a 16-point Republican margin in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 82.1 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 70.7 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 16.4 points.
A population of 412,590, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,880 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Caddo Parish and Jefferson County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Mobile County, Alabama. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/01097/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.