Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic21.0%796TrumpRepublican78.2%2,963OtherAll other candidates0.8%31
R+57.2
Lead
2,167
Total
3,790
vs nation
R+55.7
BidenDemocratic20.8%685TrumpRepublican78.6%2,588OtherAll other candidates0.6%21
R+57.8
Lead
1,903
Total
3,294
vs nation
R+62.2
ClintonDemocratic17.2%453TrumpRepublican79.9%2,104OtherAll other candidates2.9%77
R+62.7
Lead
1,651
Total
2,634
vs nation
R+64.8
ObamaDemocratic15.4%370RomneyRepublican83.2%1,992OtherAll other candidates1.4%33
R+67.7
Lead
1,622
Total
2,395
vs nation
R+71.6
ObamaDemocratic19.1%448McCainRepublican80.2%1,881OtherAll other candidates0.7%17
R+61.1
Lead
1,433
Total
2,346
vs nation
R+68.4
KerryDemocratic15.5%335BushRepublican84.2%1,816OtherAll other candidates0.3%7
R+68.6
Lead
1,481
Total
2,158
vs nation
R+66.2
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+57.2MIT Election Lab
Population
4,8542024 5-year
Population density
339 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
14.3 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$96,7942024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
89.3%2024 5-year
Black
0.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.8%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+68.6 in 2004MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2008–20247 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
88.8%3,826 participants ÷ 4,309 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+23.9 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+4.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
64.9%–73.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
82.7%
76.1%
2008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
3,826
4,309 ± 286
88.8%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
2,872
3,775 ± 265
76.1%
Audited
E/A
3,332
3,334 ± 252
99.9%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
2,571
3,110 ± 206
82.7%
Audited
E/A
2,698
3,036 ± 224
88.9%
Audited
E/A
2,395
3,146
76.1%
Derived
—
2,346
2,541
92.3%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Horseshoe Bay, TX · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
21.0%
796 votes · R+57.2
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 20.8%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
84.2%
1,816 votes · R+68.6
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 83.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
796votes
21.0% of the vote · R+57.2
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 685 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
2,963votes
78.2% of the vote · R+57.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 2,588 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
−55.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+57.2 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −62.2 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+71.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+67.7 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +68.4 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Horseshoe Bay · how this place’s counties split between candidates in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain and there is no roll-up above it. Each cell counts how many of this place’s counties a candidate led — a count of records, not a vote total. Who led the place as a whole is not knowable from these returns, because county rows carry a leader and a lead but no per-candidate votes.
Presidential nominating contests in Horseshoe Bay, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Horseshoe Bay sits along Lake LBJ in the Texas Hill Country, drawing a predominantly older, affluent population of retirees whose turnout patterns consistently outpace similarly sized Texas cities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 68.6 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 0.6 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 57.2 points.
A population of 4,854, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $96,794 describe the city.
In 2024, Horseshoe Bay, Texas voted Republican by 57.2 points (R+57.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,790 votes cast, 796 went Democratic and 2,963 went Republican.
How many people live in Horseshoe Bay, Texas?
Horseshoe Bay, Texas has a population of 4,854 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Horseshoe Bay, Texas?
Median household income in Horseshoe Bay, Texas is $96,794 — above the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Horseshoe Bay, Texas?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Horseshoe Bay, Texas from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
