- Lead
- 76,662
- Total
- 350,589
- vs nation
- R+20.4
Texas 31st Congressional District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 56,526
- Total
- 316,881
- vs nation
- R+22.3
- Lead
- 59,757
- Total
- 225,994
- vs nation
- R+28.5
- Lead
- 58,023
- Total
- 191,973
- vs nation
- R+34.1
- Lead
- 43,453
- Total
- 195,366
- vs nation
- R+29.5
- Lead
- 63,928
- Total
- 166,851
- vs nation
- R+35.9
- Lead
- 53,222
- Total
- 134,667
- vs nation
- R+40.0
- Lead
- 19,489
- Total
- 112,021
- vs nation
- R+25.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+21.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 766,5842024 5-year
- Population density
- 131 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 5,862 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $89,5972024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 13.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 23.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+90.8 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+47.9 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 10, TX · twin score 92.4
presidential history
Party record book
Texas 31st Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
95.4%
4,638 votes · D+90.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 92.4%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
73.7%
31,823 votes · R+47.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 71.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
134,697votes
38.4% of the vote · R+21.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 127,219 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
211,359votes
60.3% of the vote · R+21.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 183,745 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+92.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+67.0 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +77.4 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2000
+40.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+39.5 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +35.9 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Texas's 31st stretches across fast-growing Williamson County north of Austin, where an influx of tech-sector workers has compressed a margin that once ran well into double digits, making it a closely watched bellwether for suburban realignment statewide.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 90.8 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 47.9 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.9 points.
A population of 766,584, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $89,597 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 10 and Congressional District 26.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Texas 31st Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4831/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.