- Lead
- 26,026
- Total
- 50,249
- vs nation
- R+50.3
Virginia 51st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 23,016
- Total
- 48,138
- vs nation
- R+52.3
- Lead
- 21,226
- Total
- 43,104
- vs nation
- R+51.3
- Lead
- 16,911
- Total
- 40,544
- vs nation
- R+45.6
- Lead
- 14,926
- Total
- 39,904
- vs nation
- R+44.7
- Lead
- 14,395
- Total
- 35,394
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Lead
- 10,402
- Total
- 30,605
- vs nation
- R+34.5
- Lead
- 5,373
- Total
- 27,305
- vs nation
- R+28.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+51.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,4632024 5-year
- Population density
- 93 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 922 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $70,1922024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+66.1 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 39, VA · twin score 97.9
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
30.8%
12,291 votes · R+37.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 29.2%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
75.6%
37,964 votes · R+51.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 73.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
12,291votes
30.8% of the vote · R+37.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 12,118 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
37,964votes
75.6% of the vote · R+51.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 35,134 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
−38.2pts D vs U.S.
Place R+40.7 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · −44.7 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+52.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+47.8 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +51.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Virginia 51st State House District sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 66.1 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 63.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 51.8 points.
A population of 85,463, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,192 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 39 and State House District 3.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.