HarrisDemocratic30.4%7,400TrumpRepublican67.9%16,550OtherAll other candidates1.7%407
R+37.6- Lead
- 9,150
- Total
- 24,357
- vs nation
- R+36.1
- Turnout
- 49.6%
Akashiccounty
Muskogee County, OK
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 49.6% of 49,309 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic32.0%8,027TrumpRepublican65.9%16,526JorgensenLibertarian1.3%319
R+33.9- Lead
- 8,499
- Total
- 25,081
- vs nation
- R+38.3
- Turnout
- 49.6%
ClintonDemocratic32.9%7,977TrumpRepublican62.1%15,043JohnsonLibertarian4.9%1,196
R+29.2- Lead
- 7,066
- Total
- 24,216
- vs nation
- R+31.3
- Turnout
- 47.2%
ObamaDemocratic42.6%9,952RomneyRepublican57.4%13,404OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+14.8- Lead
- 3,452
- Total
- 23,356
- vs nation
- R+18.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic42.5%11,294McCainRepublican57.5%15,289OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+15.0- Lead
- 3,995
- Total
- 26,583
- vs nation
- R+22.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic45.4%12,585BushRepublican54.6%15,124OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+9.2- Lead
- 2,539
- Total
- 27,709
- vs nation
- R+6.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.7%12,520BushRepublican47.9%11,820OtherAll other candidates1.4%353
D+2.8- Lead
- 700
- Total
- 24,693
- vs nation
- D+2.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic51.5%12,963DoleRepublican35.6%8,974PerotReform12.6%3,163
D+15.8- Lead
- 3,989
- Total
- 25,180
- vs nation
- D+7.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+37.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 66,4442024 5-year
- Median household income
- $53,6192024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 53.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+40.5 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+37.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Okmulgee County, OK · twin score 93.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 49.6%24,441 participants ÷ 49,309 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.4 ptsPersistently low turnout
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 37.2%–39.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 24,347 | 51,574 | 47.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 19,845 | 50,940 | 39.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 25,171 | 50,773 | 49.6% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 18,383 | 49,416 | 37.2% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 24,441 | 49,309 | 49.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
72 precincts · 24,357 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -510040510040 | 605 | 1,987 | 34 | 2,626 | 23.0% | 75.7% | R+52.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -510055510055 | 396 | 1,277 | 18 | 1,691 | 23.4% | 75.5% | R+52.1 |
| Precinct -510033510033 | 273 | 1,168 | 12 | 1,453 | 18.8% | 80.4% | R+61.6 |
| Precinct -510009510009 | 481 | 836 | 24 | 1,341 | 35.9% | 62.3% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -510007510007 | 448 | 819 | 24 | 1,291 | 34.7% | 63.4% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -510046510046 | 310 | 843 | 21 | 1,174 | 26.4% | 71.8% | R+45.4 |
| Precinct -510022510022 | 418 | 598 | 25 | 1,041 | 40.2% | 57.4% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct -510013510013 | 321 | 689 | 14 | 1,024 | 31.3% | 67.3% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -510047510047 | 508 | 466 | 25 | 999 | 50.9% | 46.6% | D+4.2 |
| Precinct -510023510023 | 639 | 242 | 16 | 897 | 71.2% | 27.0% | D+44.3 |
| Precinct -510059510059 | 130 | 724 | 15 | 869 | 15.0% | 83.3% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct -510037510037 | 214 | 571 | 11 | 796 | 26.9% | 71.7% | R+44.8 |
| Precinct -510064510064 | 132 | 618 | 14 | 764 | 17.3% | 80.9% | R+63.6 |
| Precinct -510049510049 | 128 | 507 | 16 | 651 | 19.7% | 77.9% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -510041510041 | 211 | 417 | 12 | 640 | 33.0% | 65.2% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct -510011510011 | 240 | 379 | 13 | 632 | 38.0% | 60.0% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct -510072510072 | 238 | 376 | 16 | 630 | 37.8% | 59.7% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct -510053510053 | 108 | 436 | 10 | 554 | 19.5% | 78.7% | R+59.2 |
| Precinct -510005510005 | 239 | 301 | 9 | 549 | 43.5% | 54.8% | R+11.3 |
| Precinct -510044510044 | 80 | 442 | 10 | 532 | 15.0% | 83.1% | R+68.0 |
| Precinct -510045510045 | 116 | 336 | 6 | 458 | 25.3% | 73.4% | R+48.0 |
| Precinct -510021510021 | 221 | 193 | 10 | 424 | 52.1% | 45.5% | D+6.6 |
| Precinct -510068510068 | 75 | 296 | 4 | 375 | 20.0% | 78.9% | R+58.9 |
| Precinct -510058510058 | 80 | 286 | 3 | 369 | 21.7% | 77.5% | R+55.8 |
| Precinct -510061510061 | 84 | 240 | 7 | 331 | 25.4% | 72.5% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct -510056510056 | 51 | 230 | 4 | 285 | 17.9% | 80.7% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct -510052510052 | 54 | 206 | 7 | 267 | 20.2% | 77.2% | R+56.9 |
| Precinct -510028510028 | 68 | 170 | 5 | 243 | 28.0% | 70.0% | R+42.0 |
| Precinct -510060510060 | 40 | 193 | 4 | 237 | 16.9% | 81.4% | R+64.6 |
| Precinct -510070510070 | 63 | 160 | 0 | 223 | 28.3% | 71.7% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct -510017510017 | 140 | 64 | 6 | 210 | 66.7% | 30.5% | D+36.2 |
| Precinct -510050510050 | 71 | 119 | 2 | 192 | 37.0% | 62.0% | R+25.0 |
| Precinct -510036510036 | 105 | 76 | 6 | 187 | 56.1% | 40.6% | D+15.5 |
| Precinct -510051510051 | 21 | 105 | 1 | 127 | 16.5% | 82.7% | R+66.1 |
| Precinct -510073510073 | 19 | 105 | 2 | 126 | 15.1% | 83.3% | R+68.3 |
| Precinct -510067510067 | 53 | 48 | 1 | 102 | 52.0% | 47.1% | D+4.9 |
| Precinct -510069510069 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 29 | 27.6% | 72.4% | R+44.8 |
| Precinct -510066510066 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 61.5% | 38.5% | D+23.1 |
| Precinct -510065510065 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 80.0% | 20.0% | D+60.0 |
| Voting District 1140_4010111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 1340_4010113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 1740_4010117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 240_401012 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 2140_4010121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 2240_4010122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 2340_4010123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 2840_4010128 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 3340_4010133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 3640_4010136 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 3740_4010137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 3840_4010138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 4040_4010140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 4140_4010141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 4440_4010144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 4540_4010145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 4640_4010146 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 4740_4010147 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 4940_4010149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 540_401015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5040_4010150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5140_4010151 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5240_4010152 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5340_4010153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5540_4010155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5640_4010156 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5840_4010158 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 5940_4010159 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 6040_4010160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 6140_4010161 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 6440_4010164 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 740_401017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 940_401019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1908–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1908 | −12.2% |
| 1912 | +19.6% |
| 1916 | +21.4% |
| 1920 | +10.2% |
| 1924 | +5.4% |
| 1928 | −22.2% |
| 1932 | +40.5% |
| 1936 | +34.8% |
| 1940 | +14.8% |
| 1944 | +17.0% |
| 1948 | +35.5% |
| 1952 | +4.9% |
| 1956 | −3.0% |
| 1960 | −5.6% |
| 1964 | +31.5% |
| 1968 | +3.0% |
| 1972 | −33.7% |
| 1976 | +17.5% |
| 1980 | +7.1% |
| 1984 | −8.5% |
| 1988 | +10.4% |
| 1992 | +17.3% |
| 1996 | +15.8% |
| 2000 | +2.8% |
| 2004 | −9.2% |
| 2008 | −15.0% |
| 2012 | −14.8% |
| 2016 | −29.2% |
| 2020 | −33.9% |
| 2024 | −37.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 38 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 31.2%7,164 | 68.8%15,781 | 22,945 |
| 2020 | R | 32.2%7,777 | 67.8%16,382 | 24,159 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+17.9
Presidential vote · 2024R+37.6
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 20 points more Democratic.
38,384 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+77 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,630 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,774 in average income, against $62,072 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+35.5 on average — 2.0 points more Democratic-leaning than Muskogee County, OK itself (R+37.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Tulsa County, OK253R+15.2
- Wagoner County, OK168R+49.8
- Cherokee County, OK149R+32.6
- McIntosh County, OK76R+52.7
- Oklahoma County, OK60R+1.7
- Sequoyah County, OK45R+61.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Tulsa County, OK286
- Wagoner County, OK177
- Cherokee County, OK137
- McIntosh County, OK94
- Oklahoma County, OK59
- Sequoyah County, OK51
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −400 |
| 2012 | −389 |
| 2013 | −385 |
| 2014 | −466 |
| 2015 | −379 |
| 2016 | −209 |
| 2017 | +30 |
| 2018 | −559 |
| 2019 | −250 |
| 2021 | +267 |
| 2022 | +335 |
| 2023 | +511 |
| 2024 | +187 |
| 2025 | +77 |
Muskogee County, home to the historic Five Civilized Tribes Museum and a significant Native American population, has shifted from a competitive swing county to a reliably wide Republican margin over the past four election cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.5 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 37.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 37.6 points.
A population of 66,444, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $53,619 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Okmulgee County and Morris County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Okmulgee County
Oklahoma
93.0twin score
elasticity% Evangelical2000 margin≠ American ancestry
Morris County
Texas
87.3twin score
elasticity2000–2004 trajectory12-yr trend≠ % Evangelical
Ashley County
Arkansas
85.8twin score
% Evangelical2000 margin% unaffiliated≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Muskogee County, Oklahoma. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/40101/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Muskogee County
Oklahoma at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Muskogee County, Oklahoma vote in 2024?
In 2024, Muskogee County, Oklahoma voted Republican by 37.6 points (R+37.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 24,357 votes cast, 7,400 went Democratic and 16,550 went Republican.
When did Muskogee County, Oklahoma last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Muskogee County, Oklahoma voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in Muskogee County, Oklahoma?
Muskogee County, Oklahoma has a population of 66,444 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Muskogee County, Oklahoma?
Median household income in Muskogee County, Oklahoma is $53,619 — below the national median of $80,734. The Oklahoma state median is $65,039.
What is the political history of Muskogee County, Oklahoma?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Muskogee County, Oklahoma from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.