- Lead
- 6
- Total
- 22,830
- vs nation
- D+1.4
- Turnout
- 77.6%
Talbot County, MD
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 77.6% of 29,436 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 116
- Total
- 22,555
- vs nation
- R+3.9
- Turnout
- 78.5%
- Lead
- 2,071
- Total
- 20,212
- vs nation
- R+12.3
- Turnout
- 70.2%
- Lead
- 2,531
- Total
- 20,459
- vs nation
- R+16.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,960
- Total
- 20,328
- vs nation
- R+16.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,921
- Total
- 18,864
- vs nation
- R+18.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,020
- Total
- 15,234
- vs nation
- R+20.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,176
- Total
- 12,855
- vs nation
- R+25.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.03MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,9172024 5-year
- Median household income
- $84,8112024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 73.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 12.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+54.9 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- James City County, VA · twin score 91.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 77.6%22,851 participants ÷ 29,436 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -7.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 59.9%–65.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 20,713 | 29,501 | 70.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 18,499 | 29,084 | 63.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 22,781 | 29,026 | 78.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 17,860 | 29,400 | 60.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 22,851 | 29,436 | 77.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 22,830 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -01-00201-002 | 2,245 | 1,778 | 102 | 4,125 | 54.4% | 43.1% | D+11.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -01-00101-001 | 2,350 | 1,502 | 115 | 3,967 | 59.2% | 37.9% | D+21.4 |
| Precinct -04-00104-001 | 735 | 1,816 | 63 | 2,614 | 28.1% | 69.5% | R+41.4 |
| Precinct -01-00501-005 | 983 | 1,414 | 51 | 2,448 | 40.2% | 57.8% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -01-00301-003 | 1,158 | 935 | 63 | 2,156 | 53.7% | 43.4% | D+10.3 |
| Precinct -03-00103-001 | 794 | 1,156 | 44 | 1,994 | 39.8% | 58.0% | R+18.2 |
| Precinct -02-00102-001 | 1,115 | 757 | 55 | 1,927 | 57.9% | 39.3% | D+18.6 |
| Precinct -02-00302-003 | 412 | 486 | 21 | 919 | 44.8% | 52.9% | R+8.1 |
| Precinct -03-00303-003 | 507 | 338 | 23 | 868 | 58.4% | 38.9% | D+19.5 |
| Precinct -05-00205-002 | 253 | 388 | 17 | 658 | 38.4% | 59.0% | R+20.5 |
| Precinct -05-00105-001 | 330 | 284 | 13 | 627 | 52.6% | 45.3% | D+7.3 |
| Precinct -02-00202-002 | 237 | 271 | 19 | 527 | 45.0% | 51.4% | R+6.5 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −3.8% |
| 1896 | −7.2% |
| 1900 | No data |
| 1904 | No data |
| 1908 | No data |
| 1912 | +54.9% |
| 1916 | +10.4% |
| 1920 | +1.3% |
| 1924 | +7.4% |
| 1928 | −24.2% |
| 1932 | +22.5% |
| 1936 | +2.6% |
| 1940 | −8.4% |
| 1944 | −14.6% |
| 1948 | −20.8% |
| 1952 | −27.8% |
| 1956 | −37.5% |
| 1960 | −18.1% |
| 1964 | +11.7% |
| 1968 | −25.8% |
| 1972 | −50.1% |
| 1976 | −22.3% |
| 1980 | −19.1% |
| 1984 | −42.9% |
| 1988 | −34.6% |
| 1992 | −15.6% |
| 1996 | −16.9% |
| 2000 | −19.8% |
| 2004 | −20.8% |
| 2008 | −9.6% |
| 2012 | −12.4% |
| 2016 | −10.2% |
| 2020 | +0.5% |
| 2024 | −0.0% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 4.4 points more Republican.
28,986 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+45 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +1,243 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $128,233 in average income, against $124,187 for residents who stayed — 3% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+2.8 on average — 2.9 points more Democratic-leaning than Talbot County, MD itself (R+0.03).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Caroline County, MD117R+37.9
- Dorchester County, MD114R+14.5
- Anne Arundel County, MD85D+13.8
- Queen Anne's County, MD84R+27.6
- Montgomery County, MD43D+52.8
- Baltimore County, MD30D+24.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Dorchester County, MD130
- Caroline County, MD112
- Queen Anne's County, MD62
- Anne Arundel County, MD58
- Sussex County, DE36
- Wicomico County, MD34
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +112 |
| 2012 | +121 |
| 2013 | +9 |
| 2014 | −280 |
| 2015 | +26 |
| 2016 | −196 |
| 2017 | +9 |
| 2018 | +97 |
| 2019 | +242 |
| 2021 | +437 |
| 2022 | +253 |
| 2023 | +167 |
| 2024 | +201 |
| 2025 | +45 |
Talbot County, anchored by Easton on Maryland's Eastern Shore, recorded a dead-even 2024 presidential result despite its historically Republican lean — a rare zero-margin outcome that makes it a precise bellwether for Shore-wide shifts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 54.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 50.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.0 points.
A population of 37,917, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $84,811 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of James City County and Beaufort County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Talbot County, Maryland. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/24041/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.