HarrisDemocratic35.9%36,867TrumpRepublican60.7%62,273KennedyIndependent1.2%1,182
R+24.7- Lead
- 25,406
- Total
- 102,651
- vs nation
- R+23.3
- Turnout
- 77.4%
Akashiccounty
Carroll County, MD
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 77.4% of 132,978 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic36.3%36,456TrumpRepublican60.0%60,218JorgensenLibertarian2.0%2,028
R+23.7- Lead
- 23,762
- Total
- 100,327
- vs nation
- R+28.1
- Turnout
- 78.3%
ClintonDemocratic29.5%26,567TrumpRepublican64.6%58,215SteinGreen1.2%1,060
R+35.1- Lead
- 31,648
- Total
- 90,129
- vs nation
- R+37.2
- Turnout
- 72.5%
ObamaDemocratic31.9%27,939RomneyRepublican64.8%56,761OtherAll other candidates3.2%2,836
R+32.9- Lead
- 28,822
- Total
- 87,536
- vs nation
- R+36.8
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic33.1%28,060McCainRepublican64.3%54,503OtherAll other candidates2.6%2,197
R+31.2- Lead
- 26,443
- Total
- 84,760
- vs nation
- R+38.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic29.0%22,974BushRepublican69.7%55,275OtherAll other candidates1.4%1,100
R+40.7- Lead
- 32,301
- Total
- 79,349
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic31.5%20,146BushRepublican65.2%41,742NaderGreen2.6%1,681
R+33.7- Lead
- 21,596
- Total
- 64,027
- vs nation
- R+34.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic32.3%17,122DoleRepublican57.2%30,316PerotReform9.2%4,873
R+24.9- Lead
- 13,194
- Total
- 52,997
- vs nation
- R+33.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+24.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 175,3212024 5-year
- Median household income
- $118,2112024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+64.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Oldham County, KY · twin score 93.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 77.4%102,920 participants ÷ 132,978 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.2 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 54.2%–59.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 92,513 | 127,562 | 72.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 75,733 | 128,259 | 59.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 100,967 | 128,996 | 78.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 72,884 | 132,442 | 55.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 102,920 | 132,978 | 77.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
49 precincts · 102,651 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -13-00113-001 | 2,506 | 3,681 | 254 | 6,441 | 38.9% | 57.1% | R+18.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -05-00305-003 | 2,637 | 2,874 | 252 | 5,763 | 45.8% | 49.9% | R+4.1 |
| Precinct -07-00907-009 | 2,265 | 2,625 | 175 | 5,065 | 44.7% | 51.8% | R+7.1 |
| Precinct -14-00514-005 | 1,638 | 2,983 | 146 | 4,767 | 34.4% | 62.6% | R+28.2 |
| Precinct -08-00108-001 | 1,527 | 3,064 | 173 | 4,764 | 32.1% | 64.3% | R+32.3 |
| Precinct -09-00109-001 | 1,474 | 3,098 | 142 | 4,714 | 31.3% | 65.7% | R+34.5 |
| Precinct -07-00507-005 | 1,990 | 2,435 | 156 | 4,581 | 43.4% | 53.2% | R+9.7 |
| Precinct -05-00605-006 | 2,049 | 2,310 | 195 | 4,554 | 45.0% | 50.7% | R+5.7 |
| Precinct -04-00204-002 | 1,586 | 2,701 | 149 | 4,436 | 35.8% | 60.9% | R+25.1 |
| Precinct -05-00405-004 | 1,916 | 2,300 | 182 | 4,398 | 43.6% | 52.3% | R+8.7 |
| Precinct -06-00206-002 | 1,174 | 2,820 | 133 | 4,127 | 28.4% | 68.3% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -05-00505-005 | 1,454 | 1,653 | 129 | 3,236 | 44.9% | 51.1% | R+6.1 |
| Precinct -01-00101-001 | 866 | 2,062 | 68 | 2,996 | 28.9% | 68.8% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -03-00103-001 | 734 | 2,149 | 83 | 2,966 | 24.7% | 72.5% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct -06-00306-003 | 688 | 2,154 | 77 | 2,919 | 23.6% | 73.8% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -08-00208-002 | 804 | 1,910 | 107 | 2,821 | 28.5% | 67.7% | R+39.2 |
| Precinct -07-00307-003 | 914 | 1,740 | 114 | 2,768 | 33.0% | 62.9% | R+29.8 |
| Precinct -01-00201-002 | 991 | 1,699 | 77 | 2,767 | 35.8% | 61.4% | R+25.6 |
| Precinct -07-00707-007 | 1,162 | 1,473 | 85 | 2,720 | 42.7% | 54.2% | R+11.4 |
| Precinct -02-00102-001 | 750 | 1,801 | 62 | 2,613 | 28.7% | 68.9% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -11-00111-001 | 772 | 1,588 | 75 | 2,435 | 31.7% | 65.2% | R+33.5 |
| Precinct -04-00304-003 | 772 | 1,388 | 77 | 2,237 | 34.5% | 62.0% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -04-00604-006 | 655 | 1,291 | 54 | 2,000 | 32.8% | 64.5% | R+31.8 |
| Precinct -14-00214-002 | 738 | 1,088 | 75 | 1,901 | 38.8% | 57.2% | R+18.4 |
| Precinct -07-01007-010 | 766 | 817 | 61 | 1,644 | 46.6% | 49.7% | R+3.1 |
| Precinct -07-00207-002 | 434 | 936 | 39 | 1,409 | 30.8% | 66.4% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct -07-00407-004 | 538 | 808 | 55 | 1,401 | 38.4% | 57.7% | R+19.3 |
| Precinct -04-00104-001 | 363 | 719 | 34 | 1,116 | 32.5% | 64.4% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -04-00704-007 | 352 | 724 | 38 | 1,114 | 31.6% | 65.0% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -08-00308-003 | 294 | 760 | 43 | 1,097 | 26.8% | 69.3% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct -14-00314-003 | 398 | 558 | 32 | 988 | 40.3% | 56.5% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -06-00406-004 | 256 | 638 | 25 | 919 | 27.9% | 69.4% | R+41.6 |
| Precinct -07-00607-006 | 255 | 540 | 24 | 819 | 31.1% | 65.9% | R+34.8 |
| Precinct -10-00110-001 | 168 | 617 | 19 | 804 | 20.9% | 76.7% | R+55.8 |
| Precinct -12-00112-001 | 222 | 538 | 15 | 775 | 28.6% | 69.4% | R+40.8 |
| Precinct -06-00106-001 | 145 | 536 | 15 | 696 | 20.8% | 77.0% | R+56.2 |
| Precinct -03-00203-002 | 114 | 262 | 18 | 394 | 28.9% | 66.5% | R+37.6 |
| Precinct -04-00404-004 | 163 | 210 | 13 | 386 | 42.2% | 54.4% | R+12.2 |
| Precinct -14-00114-001 | 113 | 250 | 20 | 383 | 29.5% | 65.3% | R+35.8 |
| Precinct -06-00506-005 | 48 | 87 | 0 | 135 | 35.6% | 64.4% | R+28.9 |
| Precinct -05-00105-001 | 48 | 56 | 6 | 110 | 43.6% | 50.9% | R+7.3 |
| Precinct -05-00205-002 | 30 | 70 | 6 | 106 | 28.3% | 66.0% | R+37.7 |
| Precinct -04-00504-005 | 31 | 62 | 4 | 97 | 32.0% | 63.9% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct -09-00209-002 | 14 | 73 | 1 | 88 | 15.9% | 83.0% | R+67.0 |
| Precinct -11-00211-002 | 23 | 64 | 0 | 87 | 26.4% | 73.6% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct -07-00107-001 | 11 | 19 | 1 | 31 | 35.5% | 61.3% | R+25.8 |
| Precinct -14-00414-004 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 28 | 28.6% | 71.4% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct -07-00807-008 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 24 | 45.8% | 50.0% | R+4.2 |
| Precinct -09-00309-003 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +5.4% |
| 1896 | −2.5% |
| 1900 | No data |
| 1904 | No data |
| 1908 | No data |
| 1912 | +64.7% |
| 1916 | +5.3% |
| 1920 | −14.9% |
| 1924 | −6.7% |
| 1928 | −39.6% |
| 1932 | +6.1% |
| 1936 | −6.4% |
| 1940 | −17.4% |
| 1944 | −33.5% |
| 1948 | −30.6% |
| 1952 | −40.1% |
| 1956 | −45.3% |
| 1960 | −33.0% |
| 1964 | +0.7% |
| 1968 | −36.8% |
| 1972 | −57.0% |
| 1976 | −22.3% |
| 1980 | −28.7% |
| 1984 | −50.6% |
| 1988 | −43.1% |
| 1992 | −23.6% |
| 1996 | −24.9% |
| 2000 | −33.7% |
| 2004 | −40.7% |
| 2008 | −31.2% |
| 2012 | −32.9% |
| 2016 | −35.1% |
| 2020 | −23.7% |
| 2024 | −24.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+23.8
Presidential vote · 2024R+24.7
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 0.9 points.
131,769 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−104 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,211 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $81,390 in average income, against $109,535 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+25.0 on average — 50 points more Democratic-leaning than Carroll County, MD itself (R+24.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Baltimore County, MD842D+24.3
- Howard County, MD461D+41.3
- Frederick County, MD363D+8.7
- Anne Arundel County, MD278D+13.8
- Montgomery County, MD231D+52.8
- Baltimore city, MD199D+72.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Baltimore County, MD593
- Frederick County, MD352
- York County, PA313
- Howard County, MD247
- Adams County, PA171
- Baltimore city, MD166
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −343 |
| 2012 | −318 |
| 2013 | +31 |
| 2014 | +5 |
| 2015 | −369 |
| 2016 | −276 |
| 2017 | +401 |
| 2018 | +672 |
| 2019 | +120 |
| 2021 | +1,187 |
| 2022 | +1,257 |
| 2023 | +920 |
| 2024 | +28 |
| 2025 | −104 |
Carroll sits in north-central Maryland where exurban growth has reinforced rather than diluted a longstanding conservative lean, delivering Republican presidential candidates roughly 60 percent or better for more than two decades despite the state's Democratic tilt.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 64.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 57.0 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.7 points.
A population of 175,321, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $118,211 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Oldham County and St. Johns County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Oldham County
Kentucky
93.4twin score
median income12-yr trendcollege share≠ Italian ancestry
St. Johns County
Florida
92.7twin score
12-yr trendmedian income2000–2004 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
Queen Anne's County
Maryland
92.5twin score
median income12-yr trendcollege share≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Carroll County, Maryland. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/24013/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Carroll County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Carroll County, Maryland vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carroll County, Maryland voted Republican by 24.7 points (R+24.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 102,651 votes cast, 36,867 went Democratic and 62,273 went Republican.
When did Carroll County, Maryland last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carroll County, Maryland voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Carroll County, Maryland?
Carroll County, Maryland has a population of 175,321 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carroll County, Maryland?
Median household income in Carroll County, Maryland is $118,211 — above the national median of $80,734. The Maryland state median is $103,678.
What is the political history of Carroll County, Maryland?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carroll County, Maryland from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 26 went Republican.