- Lead
- 1,088
- Total
- 1,527
- vs nation
- R+69.8
- Turnout
- 58.9%
Chautauqua County, KS
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.9% of 2,621 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,190
- Total
- 1,639
- vs nation
- R+77.1
- Turnout
- 64.2%
- Lead
- 1,039
- Total
- 1,481
- vs nation
- R+72.2
- Turnout
- 55.3%
- Lead
- 1,024
- Total
- 1,630
- vs nation
- R+66.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,017
- Total
- 1,852
- vs nation
- R+62.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,125
- Total
- 1,960
- vs nation
- R+54.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 904
- Total
- 1,880
- vs nation
- R+48.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 574
- Total
- 1,960
- vs nation
- R+37.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+71.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 3,3702024 5-year
- Median household income
- $56,4382024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+8.5 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+72.6 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Doddridge County, WV · twin score 92.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.9%1,543 participants ÷ 2,621 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.0%–44.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 1,526 | 2,761 | 55.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 1,155 | 2,661 | 43.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 1,653 | 2,574 | 64.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 1,204 | 2,597 | 46.4% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 1,543 | 2,621 | 58.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
28 precincts · 1,527 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -KS019000090KS019000090 | 67 | 242 | 4 | 313 | 21.4% | 77.3% | R+55.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -KS019000060KS019000060 | 36 | 197 | 5 | 238 | 15.1% | 82.8% | R+67.6 |
| Precinct -KS019000120KS019000120 | 37 | 190 | 3 | 230 | 16.1% | 82.6% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct -KS019000080KS019000080 | 17 | 133 | 1 | 151 | 11.3% | 88.1% | R+76.8 |
| Precinct -KS019000100KS019000100 | 9 | 117 | 1 | 127 | 7.1% | 92.1% | R+85.0 |
| Precinct -KS019000030KS019000030 | 15 | 99 | 1 | 115 | 13.0% | 86.1% | R+73.0 |
| Precinct -KS019000110KS019000110 | 2 | 64 | 0 | 66 | 3.0% | 97.0% | R+93.9 |
| Precinct -KS019000010KS019000010 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 49 | 10.2% | 89.8% | R+79.6 |
| Precinct -KS019000130KS019000130 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 48 | 10.4% | 89.6% | R+79.2 |
| Precinct -KS019000050KS019000050 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 47 | 17.0% | 80.9% | R+63.8 |
| Precinct -KS019000140KS019000140 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 45 | 6.7% | 91.1% | R+84.4 |
| Precinct -KS019000020KS019000020 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 40 | 2.5% | 97.5% | R+95.0 |
| Precinct -KS019000040KS019000040 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 32 | 15.6% | 84.4% | R+68.8 |
| Precinct -KS019000070KS019000070 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 26 | 3.8% | 96.2% | R+92.3 |
| Caneyville Township Voting District20_20019000010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Center Township Voting District20_20019000020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chautauqua Voting District20_20019000030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Harrison Township Voting District20_20019000040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hendricks Township Voting District20_20019000050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jefferson Township Voting District20_20019000060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lafayette Township Voting District20_20019000070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Little Caney Township Voting District20_20019000080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| North Sedan Voting District20_20019000090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Peru Voting District20_20019000100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Salt Creek Township Voting District20_20019000110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| South Sedan Voting District20_20019000120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Summit Township Voting District20_20019000130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Washington Township Voting District20_20019000140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −52.0% |
| 1896 | −2.5% |
| 1900 | −11.6% |
| 1904 | −44.9% |
| 1908 | −26.1% |
| 1912 | −2.5% |
| 1916 | −8.3% |
| 1920 | −43.3% |
| 1924 | −33.3% |
| 1928 | −54.3% |
| 1932 | +8.5% |
| 1936 | −9.3% |
| 1940 | −26.2% |
| 1944 | −35.0% |
| 1948 | −20.5% |
| 1952 | −50.1% |
| 1956 | −42.0% |
| 1960 | −41.6% |
| 1964 | −11.4% |
| 1968 | −45.1% |
| 1972 | −58.9% |
| 1976 | −14.1% |
| 1980 | −46.8% |
| 1984 | −54.0% |
| 1988 | −30.3% |
| 1992 | −12.3% |
| 1996 | −29.3% |
| 2000 | −48.1% |
| 2004 | −57.4% |
| 2008 | −54.9% |
| 2012 | −62.8% |
| 2016 | −70.2% |
| 2020 | −72.6% |
| 2024 | −71.3% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 6.4 points more Democratic.
2,321 registered voters · 2025
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−35 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −180 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $42,604 in average income, against $57,640 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −17 |
| 2012 | −23 |
| 2013 | −26 |
| 2014 | −48 |
| 2015 | −55 |
| 2016 | +1 |
| 2017 | −20 |
| 2018 | 0 |
| 2019 | −42 |
| 2021 | +28 |
| 2022 | +43 |
| 2023 | +1 |
| 2024 | +13 |
| 2025 | −35 |
With roughly 4,300 residents spread across the Flint Hills borderlands, Chautauqua County recorded an R+71.3 presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the most one-sided counties in a state already dominated by wide rural gaps.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 8.5 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 72.6 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.4 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 71.3 points.
A population of 3,370, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,438 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Doddridge County and Sioux County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Chautauqua County, Kansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/20019/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.