- Lead
- 4,511
- Total
- 10,442
- vs nation
- R+41.7
- Turnout
- 69.2%
Spencer County, IN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 69.2% of 15,427 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 4,144
- Total
- 10,769
- vs nation
- R+42.9
- Turnout
- 69.8%
- Lead
- 3,711
- Total
- 10,048
- vs nation
- R+39.0
- Turnout
- 65.1%
- Lead
- 1,489
- Total
- 9,744
- vs nation
- R+19.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 38
- Total
- 10,181
- vs nation
- R+6.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,014
- Total
- 9,924
- vs nation
- R+17.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,344
- Total
- 8,987
- vs nation
- R+15.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 288
- Total
- 8,620
- vs nation
- R+5.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 19,9552024 5-year
- Median household income
- $74,5062024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+22.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+43.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Posey County, IN · twin score 91.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 69.2%10,675 participants ÷ 15,427 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 50.5%–66.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 10,353 | 15,909 | 65.1% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 12,472 | 15,818 | 78.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 11,036 | 15,811 | 69.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,860 | 15,371 | 51.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 10,675 | 15,427 | 69.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
49 precincts · 10,442 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -CLAY 02CLAY 02 | 307 | 649 | 20 | 976 | 31.5% | 66.5% | R+35.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -OHIO 06OHIO 06 | 138 | 468 | 14 | 620 | 22.3% | 75.5% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -CARTER 03CARTER 03 | 183 | 389 | 14 | 586 | 31.2% | 66.4% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -HARRISON 01HARRISON 01 | 193 | 356 | 18 | 567 | 34.0% | 62.8% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -HUFFHUFF | 155 | 384 | 11 | 550 | 28.2% | 69.8% | R+41.6 |
| Precinct -OHIO 04OHIO 04 | 101 | 431 | 5 | 537 | 18.8% | 80.3% | R+61.5 |
| Precinct -OHIO 05OHIO 05 | 131 | 372 | 6 | 509 | 25.7% | 73.1% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -CLAY 03CLAY 03 | 127 | 332 | 17 | 476 | 26.7% | 69.7% | R+43.1 |
| Precinct -LUCE 01LUCE 01 | 121 | 342 | 10 | 473 | 25.6% | 72.3% | R+46.7 |
| Precinct -JACKSONJACKSON | 139 | 291 | 10 | 440 | 31.6% | 66.1% | R+34.5 |
| Precinct -LUCE 02LUCE 02 | 115 | 319 | 4 | 438 | 26.3% | 72.8% | R+46.6 |
| Precinct -HAMMOND 01HAMMOND 01 | 99 | 329 | 8 | 436 | 22.7% | 75.5% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct -HARRISON 02HARRISON 02 | 139 | 272 | 9 | 420 | 33.1% | 64.8% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct -CARTER 01CARTER 01 | 99 | 285 | 15 | 399 | 24.8% | 71.4% | R+46.6 |
| Precinct -LUCE 03LUCE 03 | 91 | 286 | 9 | 386 | 23.6% | 74.1% | R+50.5 |
| Precinct -CLAY 01CLAY 01 | 90 | 254 | 7 | 351 | 25.6% | 72.4% | R+46.7 |
| Precinct -GRASS 01GRASS 01 | 88 | 245 | 7 | 340 | 25.9% | 72.1% | R+46.2 |
| Precinct -OHIO 01OHIO 01 | 123 | 197 | 13 | 333 | 36.9% | 59.2% | R+22.2 |
| Precinct -HAMMOND 02HAMMOND 02 | 77 | 229 | 7 | 313 | 24.6% | 73.2% | R+48.6 |
| Precinct -OHIO 03OHIO 03 | 88 | 202 | 3 | 293 | 30.0% | 68.9% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct -GRASS 02GRASS 02 | 67 | 216 | 6 | 289 | 23.2% | 74.7% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -OHIO 02OHIO 02 | 69 | 181 | 5 | 255 | 27.1% | 71.0% | R+43.9 |
| Precinct -CARTER 02CARTER 02 | 63 | 175 | 2 | 240 | 26.3% | 72.9% | R+46.7 |
| Precinct -CARTER 04CARTER 04 | 50 | 160 | 5 | 215 | 23.3% | 74.4% | R+51.2 |
| CARTER 0118_1814700010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CARTER 0218_1814700020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CARTER 0318_1814700030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CARTER 0418_1814700040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CLAY 0118_1814700050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CLAY 0218_1814700060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CLAY 0318_1814700065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GRASS 0118_1814700070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GRASS 0218_1814700080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HAMMOND 0118_1814700090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HAMMOND 0218_1814700100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HARRISON 0118_1814700110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HARRISON 0218_1814700120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HARRISON 0318_1814700130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HUFF18_1814700140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON18_1814700150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LUCE 0118_1814700160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LUCE 0218_1814700170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LUCE 0318_1814700180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OHIO 0118_1814700190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OHIO 0218_1814700200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OHIO 0318_1814700210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OHIO 0418_1814700220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OHIO 0518_1814700230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OHIO 0618_1814700240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +0.3% |
| 1896 | −5.2% |
| 1900 | −2.8% |
| 1904 | −9.3% |
| 1908 | −4.6% |
| 1912 | +22.7% |
| 1916 | −4.4% |
| 1920 | −15.3% |
| 1924 | +0.2% |
| 1928 | −5.9% |
| 1932 | +14.8% |
| 1936 | +4.1% |
| 1940 | −15.0% |
| 1944 | −15.4% |
| 1948 | −3.8% |
| 1952 | −23.4% |
| 1956 | −20.9% |
| 1960 | −8.0% |
| 1964 | +9.7% |
| 1968 | −9.3% |
| 1972 | −17.5% |
| 1976 | +7.0% |
| 1980 | −11.7% |
| 1984 | −18.4% |
| 1988 | −10.0% |
| 1992 | +5.3% |
| 1996 | +3.3% |
| 2000 | −15.0% |
| 2004 | −20.3% |
| 2008 | +0.4% |
| 2012 | −15.3% |
| 2016 | −36.9% |
| 2020 | −38.5% |
| 2024 | −43.2% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 25.8%2,566 | 74.2%7,374 | 9,940 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 15,960 |
| 2018 | 14,751 |
| 2020 | 15,090 |
| 2022 | 31,034 |
| 2024 | 15,808 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−26 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −351 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $61,028 in average income, against $76,341 for residents who stayed — 20% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+29.8 on average — 13 points more Democratic-leaning than Spencer County, IN itself (R+43.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Dubois County, IN79R+42.2
- Warrick County, IN76R+30.2
- Vanderburgh County, IN65R+12.6
- Perry County, IN56R+29.8
- Daviess County, KY48R+31.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Warrick County, IN78
- Perry County, IN64
- Vanderburgh County, IN62
- Daviess County, KY62
- Dubois County, IN55
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +6 |
| 2012 | −239 |
| 2013 | −20 |
| 2014 | −71 |
| 2015 | −176 |
| 2016 | −120 |
| 2017 | −47 |
| 2018 | −44 |
| 2019 | −84 |
| 2021 | +33 |
| 2022 | +76 |
| 2023 | +158 |
| 2024 | +203 |
| 2025 | −26 |
Spencer County, tucked along the Ohio River in southwestern Indiana, delivers Republican presidential margins exceeding 40 points, reflecting the deep realignment of small-town and agricultural communities that has reshaped the region over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 22.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 43.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.2 points.
A population of 19,955, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,506 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Posey County and Harrison County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Spencer County, Indiana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/18147/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.