- Lead
- 2,206
- Total
- 6,127
- vs nation
- R+34.5
- Turnout
- 67.3%
Marshall County, IL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 67.3% of 9,197 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,192
- Total
- 6,345
- vs nation
- R+39.0
- Turnout
- 70.1%
- Lead
- 1,996
- Total
- 5,984
- vs nation
- R+35.4
- Turnout
- 63.3%
- Lead
- 835
- Total
- 5,869
- vs nation
- R+18.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 64
- Total
- 6,333
- vs nation
- R+8.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 928
- Total
- 6,584
- vs nation
- R+11.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 575
- Total
- 5,907
- vs nation
- R+10.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 187
- Total
- 5,714
- vs nation
- R+5.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+36.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 11,6472024 5-year
- Median household income
- $71,5852024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 92.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+23.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+39.2 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Fremont County, IA · twin score 85.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 67.3%6,191 participants ÷ 9,197 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 49.7%–52.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 6,033 | 9,533 | 63.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,796 | 9,371 | 51.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 6,382 | 9,109 | 70.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,838 | 9,226 | 52.4% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 6,191 | 9,197 | 67.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
29 precincts · 6,127 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -BENNINGTONBENNINGTON | 230 | 536 | 10 | 776 | 29.6% | 69.1% | R+39.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -HENRY 1HENRY 1 | 250 | 418 | 15 | 683 | 36.6% | 61.2% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -LACON 1LACON 1 | 233 | 424 | 11 | 668 | 34.9% | 63.5% | R+28.6 |
| Precinct -STEUBENSTEUBEN | 173 | 419 | 6 | 598 | 28.9% | 70.1% | R+41.1 |
| Precinct -HENRY 2HENRY 2 | 179 | 368 | 9 | 556 | 32.2% | 66.2% | R+34.0 |
| Precinct -EVANSEVANS | 141 | 399 | 8 | 548 | 25.7% | 72.8% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct -ROBERTSROBERTS | 185 | 328 | 9 | 522 | 35.4% | 62.8% | R+27.4 |
| Precinct -LACON 2LACON 2 | 168 | 321 | 12 | 501 | 33.5% | 64.1% | R+30.5 |
| Precinct -HOPEWELLHOPEWELL | 102 | 202 | 4 | 308 | 33.1% | 65.6% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct -RICHLANDRICHLAND | 70 | 174 | 1 | 245 | 28.6% | 71.0% | R+42.4 |
| Precinct -LA PRAIRIELA PRAIRIE | 45 | 160 | 5 | 210 | 21.4% | 76.2% | R+54.8 |
| Precinct -BELL PLAINBELL PLAIN | 56 | 146 | 1 | 203 | 27.6% | 71.9% | R+44.3 |
| Precinct -WHITEFIELDWHITEFIELD | 52 | 126 | 1 | 179 | 29.1% | 70.4% | R+41.3 |
| Precinct -SARATOGASARATOGA | 29 | 98 | 3 | 130 | 22.3% | 75.4% | R+53.1 |
| BELL PLAIN Voting District17_1712301001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BENNINGTON 1 Voting District17_1712302001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BENNINGTON 2 Voting District17_1712302002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EVANS 1 Voting District17_1712303001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EVANS 2 Voting District17_1712303002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HENRY 1 Voting District17_1712304001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HOPEWELL Voting District17_1712305001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LA PRAIRIE Voting District17_1712307001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LACON 1 Voting District17_1712306001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LACON 2 Voting District17_1712306002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RICHLAND Voting District17_1712308001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROBERTS Voting District17_1712309001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SARATOGA Voting District17_1712310001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| STEUBEN Voting District17_1712311001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WHITEFIELD Voting District17_1712312001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +6.9% |
| 1896 | −7.9% |
| 1900 | −7.2% |
| 1904 | −16.5% |
| 1908 | −4.7% |
| 1912 | +23.8% |
| 1916 | −15.4% |
| 1920 | −39.2% |
| 1924 | −30.0% |
| 1928 | −17.5% |
| 1932 | +13.2% |
| 1936 | +7.8% |
| 1940 | −15.0% |
| 1944 | −23.5% |
| 1948 | −20.1% |
| 1952 | −34.8% |
| 1956 | −35.9% |
| 1960 | −16.4% |
| 1964 | +5.2% |
| 1968 | −21.6% |
| 1972 | −35.0% |
| 1976 | −21.7% |
| 1980 | −36.4% |
| 1984 | −25.8% |
| 1988 | −13.3% |
| 1992 | +5.0% |
| 1996 | +3.3% |
| 2000 | −9.7% |
| 2004 | −14.1% |
| 2008 | −1.0% |
| 2012 | −14.2% |
| 2016 | −33.4% |
| 2020 | −34.5% |
| 2024 | −36.0% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 8,626 |
| 2018 | 8,539 |
| 2020 | 8,467 |
| 2022 | 8,139 |
| 2024 | 8,669 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−39 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −727 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $61,244 in average income, against $75,692 for residents who stayed — 19% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+14.0 on average — 22 points more Democratic-leaning than Marshall County, IL itself (R+36.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Peoria County, IL64D+4.6
- LaSalle County, IL42R+18.5
- Woodford County, IL36R+42.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Peoria County, IL61
- LaSalle County, IL42
- Woodford County, IL33
- Tazewell County, IL30
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −101 |
| 2012 | −158 |
| 2013 | −117 |
| 2014 | −115 |
| 2015 | −23 |
| 2016 | −10 |
| 2017 | −163 |
| 2018 | −121 |
| 2019 | −11 |
| 2021 | +39 |
| 2022 | +65 |
| 2023 | +65 |
| 2024 | −38 |
| 2025 | −39 |
Marshall County sits in the Illinois River valley with a small, aging population that has shifted decisively toward Republican presidential candidates since 2000, recording a 36-point margin in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 23.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 39.2 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.0 points.
A population of 11,647, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,585 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Fremont County and Kalkaska County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Marshall County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17123/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.