Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic34.5%659TrumpRepublican64.5%1,234OtherAll other candidates1.0%19
R+30.1
Lead
575
Total
1,912
vs nation
R+28.6
BidenDemocratic37.8%686TrumpRepublican60.6%1,100OtherAll other candidates1.6%29
R+22.8
Lead
414
Total
1,815
vs nation
R+27.3
ClintonDemocratic34.0%556TrumpRepublican61.4%1,003OtherAll other candidates4.6%75
R+27.4
Lead
447
Total
1,634
vs nation
R+29.4
ObamaDemocratic45.0%630RomneyRepublican53.5%750OtherAll other candidates1.5%21
R+8.6
Lead
120
Total
1,401
vs nation
R+12.4
ObamaDemocratic50.7%784McCainRepublican47.6%736OtherAll other candidates1.6%25
D+3.1
Lead
48
Total
1,545
vs nation
R+4.2
KerryDemocratic45.2%666BushRepublican53.1%782OtherAll other candidates1.7%25
R+7.9
Lead
116
Total
1,473
vs nation
R+5.4
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+30.1MIT Election Lab
Population
3,4952024 5-year
Population density
2,688 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
1.3 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$76,0962024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
87.0%2024 5-year
Black
3.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
7.5%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+3.1 in 2008MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+30.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
68.3%1,920 participants ÷ 2,813 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+17.0 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
+0.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
51.2%–53.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
51.3%
49.5%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,920
2,813 ± 210
68.3%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
1,397
2,820 ± 189
49.5%
Audited
E/A
1,824
2,740 ± 168
66.6%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
1,332
2,596 ± 164
51.3%
Audited
E/A
1,650
2,605 ± 163
63.3%
Audited
E/A
1,401
2,572
54.5%
Derived
—
1,545
2,818
54.8%
Derived
—
1,473
3,064 extrapolated
48.1%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Pen Argyl, PA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
50.7%
784 votes · D+3.1
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 45.2%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
64.5%
1,234 votes · R+30.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · 61.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
784votes
50.7% of the vote · D+3.1
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 686 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,234votes
64.5% of the vote · R+30.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,100 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
−4.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+3.1 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · −5.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+29.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+27.4 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +28.6 pts
U.S. House elections · 1 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Pen Argyl · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Northampton County, Pennsylvania, the county containing Pen Argyl — Pen Argyl’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Pen Argyl, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Pen Argyl sits in Northampton County's Slate Belt, a region defined by its 19th-century quarrying heritage and a blue-collar demographic that has shifted noticeably toward Republican candidates in recent statewide cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 3.1 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 30.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 7.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 30.1 points.
A population of 3,495, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,096 describe the city.
In 2024, Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 30.1 points (R+30.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,912 votes cast, 659 went Democratic and 1,234 went Republican.
When did Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania?
Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania has a population of 3,495 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania is $76,096 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 5 went Republican.
