Toledo, Ohio
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +39.9% |
| 2008 | +48.7% |
| 2012 | +50.5% |
| 2016 | +36.2% |
| 2020 | +34.2% |
| 2024 | +30.0% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 64.5%Harris63,909 | 34.5%Trump34,165 | 0.9% | D+30.0 | R+4.2 | D+31.5 | 99,013 | |
| D | 66.2%Biden71,617 | 32.0%Trump34,622 | 1.8% | D+34.2 | R+2.0 | D+29.7 | 108,181 | |
| D | 65.4%Clinton73,569 | 29.2%Trump32,830 | 5.4% | D+36.2 | R+14.3 | D+34.1 | 112,416 | |
| D | 74.0%Obama92,689 | 23.5%Romney29,436 | 2.5% | D+50.5 | D+1.8 | D+46.7 | 125,240 | |
| D | 73.5%Obama98,464 | 24.8%McCain33,211 | 1.7% | D+48.7 | D+8.8 | D+41.5 | 133,892 | |
| D | 69.8%Kerry91,538 | 29.9%Bush39,219 | 0.3% | D+39.9 | — | D+42.4 | 131,149 |
Toledo's manufacturing legacy and dense union membership have long anchored its voting patterns toward Democratic candidates, though the surrounding Lucas County margin has tightened in recent cycles as industrial employment has shifted.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 50.5 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 30.0 points.
A population of 267,463, a 56% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $49,724 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Akron and Dayton.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Toledo, Ohio. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/3977000/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.