Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic21.9%301TrumpRepublican76.6%1,052OtherAll other candidates1.5%21
R+54.7
Lead
751
Total
1,374
vs nation
R+53.2
BidenDemocratic23.1%342TrumpRepublican75.2%1,115OtherAll other candidates1.8%26
R+52.1
Lead
773
Total
1,483
vs nation
R+56.6
ClintonDemocratic21.6%270TrumpRepublican74.0%926OtherAll other candidates4.5%56
R+52.4
Lead
656
Total
1,252
vs nation
R+54.5
ObamaDemocratic31.0%367RomneyRepublican66.4%785OtherAll other candidates2.6%31
R+35.3
Lead
418
Total
1,183
vs nation
R+39.2
ObamaDemocratic37.2%460McCainRepublican60.7%751OtherAll other candidates2.1%26
R+23.5
Lead
291
Total
1,237
vs nation
R+30.8
KerryDemocratic33.3%377BushRepublican66.5%753OtherAll other candidates0.3%3
R+33.2
Lead
376
Total
1,133
vs nation
R+30.7
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+54.7MIT Election Lab
Population
2,6722024 5-year
Population density
810 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
3.3 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$64,7502024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
90.2%2024 5-year
Black
0.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
6.4%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+54.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2012–20246 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
80.7%1,392 participants ÷ 1,725 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+19.8 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
+0.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
60.9%–67.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
80.7%
67.9%
201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,392
1,725 ± 149
80.7%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
1,182
1,741 ± 147
67.9%
Audited
E/A
1,484
1,693 ± 140
87.7%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
1,220
1,512 ± 159
80.7%
Audited
E/D
1,383
1,581 ± 180
87.5%
Audited
E/D
1,183
1,577
75.0%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Strafford, MO · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
37.2%
460 votes · R+23.5
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 33.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
76.6%
1,052 votes · R+54.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 75.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
460votes
37.2% of the vote · R+23.5
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 377 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
1,115votes
75.2% of the vote · R+52.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 1,052 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
−30.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+33.2 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · −30.8 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+56.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+52.1 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +54.5 pts
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
Strafford · how this place’s counties split between candidates in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain and there is no roll-up above it. Each cell counts how many of this place’s counties a candidate led — a count of records, not a vote total. Who led the place as a whole is not knowable from these returns, because county rows carry a leader and a lead but no per-candidate votes.
Presidential nominating contests in Strafford, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Strafford sits in the Border South. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 54.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 54.7 points.
A population of 2,672, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,750 describe the city.
In 2024, Strafford, Missouri voted Republican by 54.7 points (R+54.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,374 votes cast, 301 went Democratic and 1,052 went Republican.
How many people live in Strafford, Missouri?
Strafford, Missouri has a population of 2,672 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Strafford, Missouri?
Median household income in Strafford, Missouri is $64,750 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Strafford, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Strafford, Missouri from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
