Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
47.6%63,361 participants ÷ 133,145 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+24.7 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
-1.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
22.9%–30.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%
39.5%
33.8%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
63,361
133,145 ± 2,702
47.6%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
43,573
129,004 ± 2,350
33.8%
Audited
E/A
73,363
125,480 ± 2,568
58.5%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
48,251
122,031 ± 2,102
39.5%
Audited
E/A
57,882
118,859 ± 1,982
48.7%
Audited
E/A
51,697
105,652
48.9%
Derived
—
47,070
95,136
49.5%
Derived
—
39,557
84,620 extrapolated
46.7%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Moreno Valley, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
68.3%
35,322 votes · D+39.1
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 67.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
42.7%
16,874 votes · D+13.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 39.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
48,293votes
67.2% of the vote · D+36.5
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 37,709 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
24,525votes
39.6% of the vote · D+18.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 22,113 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
+38.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+40.1 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +35.2 pts
Republican
George H. W. Bush1992
−0.9pts R vs U.S.
Place D+6.5 · U.S. D+5.6
Runner-up · Bob Dole, 1996 · −5.3 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Moreno Valley · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Riverside County, California, the county containing Moreno Valley — Moreno Valley’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Moreno Valley, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Moreno Valley's majority-minority electorate — heavily Latino and Black — has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, while rapid post-2000 growth has kept voter registration rolls in near-constant flux.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.1 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 18.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.1 points.
A population of 211,666, a 14% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $93,222 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Fontana and San Bernardino.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Moreno Valley, California voted Democratic by 18.1 points (D+18.1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 61,982 votes cast, 35,716 went Democratic and 24,525 went Republican.
How many people live in Moreno Valley, California?
Moreno Valley, California has a population of 211,666 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Moreno Valley, California?
Median household income in Moreno Valley, California is $93,222 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Moreno Valley, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Moreno Valley, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
