HarrisDemocratic44.5%3,154TrumpRepublican52.0%3,686OtherAll other candidates3.5%247
R+7.5- Lead
- 532
- Total
- 7,087
- vs nation
- R+6.0
- Turnout
- —
Akashiccity
El Sobrante, CA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic48.6%3,711TrumpRepublican49.8%3,797OtherAll other candidates1.6%124
R+1.1- Lead
- 86
- Total
- 7,632
- vs nation
- R+5.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic45.7%2,606TrumpRepublican49.6%2,831OtherAll other candidates4.6%265
R+3.9- Lead
- 225
- Total
- 5,702
- vs nation
- R+6.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic45.7%2,356RomneyRepublican51.9%2,674OtherAll other candidates2.4%124
R+6.2- Lead
- 318
- Total
- 5,154
- vs nation
- R+10.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic48.7%2,143McCainRepublican51.1%2,251OtherAll other candidates0.2%9
R+2.5- Lead
- 108
- Total
- 4,403
- vs nation
- R+9.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic38.6%1,530BushRepublican61.0%2,420OtherAll other candidates0.5%18
R+22.4- Lead
- 890
- Total
- 3,968
- vs nation
- R+20.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+7.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 13,1292024 5-year
- Median household income
- $165,6822024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 40.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 32.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Republican margin
- R+22.4 in 2004MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Woodcrest, CA · twin score 89.3
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −22.4% |
| 2008 | −2.5% |
| 2012 | −6.2% |
| 2016 | −3.9% |
| 2020 | −1.1% |
| 2024 | −7.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 44.5%Harris3,154 | 52.0%Trump3,686 | 3.5% | R+7.5 | R+6.4 | R+6.0 | 7,087 | |
| R | 48.6%Biden3,711 | 49.8%Trump3,797 | 1.6% | R+1.1 | D+2.8 | R+5.6 | 7,632 | |
| R | 45.7%Clinton2,606 | 49.6%Trump2,831 | 4.6% | R+3.9 | D+2.2 | R+6.0 | 5,702 | |
| R | 45.7%Obama2,356 | 51.9%Romney2,674 | 2.4% | R+6.2 | R+3.7 | R+10.0 | 5,154 | |
| R | 48.7%Obama2,143 | 51.1%McCain2,251 | 0.2% | R+2.5 | — | R+9.7 | 4,403 | |
| R | 38.6%Kerry1,530 | 61.0%Bush2,420 | 0.5% | R+22.4 | — | R+20.0 | 3,968 |
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 47.4%3,297 | 52.6%3,657 | 6,954 |
| 2020 | R | 44.8%3,355 | 55.2%4,128 | 7,483 |
El Sobrante is a census-designated place—never incorporated as a city—wedged between Richmond and San Pablo, with a diverse, working-class electorate that has historically tracked closely with broader Contra Costa County Democratic margins.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 22.4 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 6.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.5 points.
A population of 13,129, a 41% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $165,682 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Woodcrest and Temescal Valley.
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Woodcrest
California
89.3twin score
median income% Latinocollege share
Temescal Valley
California
75.7twin score
% Latinocollege shareMexican ancestry≠ median income
Castaic
California
73.3twin score
% Latinomedian incomeMexican ancestry≠ Scottish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
El Sobrante, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0622457/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
California at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did El Sobrante, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, El Sobrante, California voted Republican by 7.5 points (R+7.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,087 votes cast, 3,154 went Democratic and 3,686 went Republican.
How many people live in El Sobrante, California?
El Sobrante, California has a population of 13,129 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in El Sobrante, California?
Median household income in El Sobrante, California is $165,682 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of El Sobrante, California?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in El Sobrante, California from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.