Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic34.0%866TrumpRepublican65.1%1,659OtherAll other candidates0.9%22
R+31.1
Lead
793
Total
2,547
vs nation
R+29.7
BidenDemocratic35.3%914TrumpRepublican63.1%1,633OtherAll other candidates1.7%43
R+27.8
Lead
719
Total
2,590
vs nation
R+32.2
ClintonDemocratic32.2%669TrumpRepublican61.3%1,274OtherAll other candidates6.5%135
R+29.1
Lead
605
Total
2,078
vs nation
R+31.2
ObamaDemocratic35.9%610RomneyRepublican61.8%1,049OtherAll other candidates2.2%38
R+25.9
Lead
439
Total
1,697
vs nation
R+29.7
ObamaDemocratic39.2%707McCainRepublican58.8%1,061OtherAll other candidates2.0%36
R+19.6
Lead
354
Total
1,804
vs nation
R+26.9
KerryDemocratic40.6%636BushRepublican59.2%926OtherAll other candidates0.2%3
R+18.5
Lead
290
Total
1,565
vs nation
R+16.1
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+31.1MIT Election Lab
Population
4,9292024 5-year
Population density
411 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
12 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$64,4552024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
83.9%2024 5-year
Black
0.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
10.2%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+31.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
56.8%2,569 participants ÷ 4,523 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+7.0 ptsHigh-turnout, durable
Drop-off vs state
-10.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
49.8%–51.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
43.1%
53.6%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
2,569
4,523 ± 826
56.8%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
2,260
4,217 ± 769
53.6%
Audited
E/D
2,619
4,323 ± 836
60.6%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
1,985
4,607 ± 596
43.1%
Audited
E/D
2,104
4,437 ± 435
47.4%
Audited
E/A
1,697
4,139
41.0%
Derived
—
1,804
3,079
58.6%
Derived
—
1,565
2,019 extrapolated
77.5%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Lake Montezuma, AZ · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
40.6%
636 votes · R+18.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 39.2%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
65.1%
1,659 votes · R+31.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 63.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
914votes
35.3% of the vote · R+27.8
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 866 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,659votes
65.1% of the vote · R+31.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,633 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
−16.1pts D vs U.S.
Place R+18.5 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · −26.9 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+32.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+27.8 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +31.2 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Lake Montezuma · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Yavapai County, Arizona, the county containing Lake Montezuma — Lake Montezuma’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Lake Montezuma, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Lake Montezuma is a census-designated place in Arizona's Verde Valley where a high share of residents arrived from out of state, a pattern that has gradually shifted its electoral composition away from its historically rural baseline.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 31.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 3.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.1 points.
A population of 4,929, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,455 describe the city.
In 2024, Lake Montezuma, Arizona voted Republican by 31.1 points (R+31.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,547 votes cast, 866 went Democratic and 1,659 went Republican.
How many people live in Lake Montezuma, Arizona?
Lake Montezuma, Arizona has a population of 4,929 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lake Montezuma, Arizona?
Median household income in Lake Montezuma, Arizona is $64,455 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Lake Montezuma, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Lake Montezuma, Arizona from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
