akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 3·New York

New York 3rd Congressional District delivered D+1 in 2024 — close enough to flip again next time.

Long Island district that shifted 10+ points toward Republicans from 2020 to 2024

18762024·38 elections
NY
Latest
D+1
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
997,104
2024 ACS

New York 3rd Congressional District, New York: Tossup district. In 2024, voted D+1%. Republican peak: R+51 in 1920.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+1MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
TossupAkashic typology
Population
997,1042024 5-year
Median household income
$130,0292024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
48.5%2024 5-year
Black
12.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
21.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+25 in 1996MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+51 in 1920MIT Election Lab
D
SUOZZI, ThomasCongress 119 · Democratic

Predecessors: SANTOS, George (2023–2025), ISRAEL, Steve (2015–2017), ISRAEL, Steve (2013–2015), KING, Peter T. (2011–2013)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).

2 counties · 1 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+1.0%
227,988223,604458,000
D
+16.4%
273,670195,890474,388
D
+15.2%
233,939170,381418,643
D
+17.3%
213,120149,672366,700
D
+16.1%
234,977169,357407,265
D
+12.5%
219,539170,377394,191
D
+25.3%
227,634133,163373,850
D
+25.1%
202,284115,643344,683
D
+10.7%
188,571147,660383,750
R
−8.9%
168,732202,014373,818
R
−18.4%
164,160238,545403,611
R
−17.0%
139,961203,951377,347
D
+0.5%
202,714200,847405,877
R
−24.1%
170,515279,277450,767
R
−3.5%
193,529208,361425,774
D
+23.7%
263,182162,209425,848
R
−5.7%
189,647212,516402,777
R
−33.5%
124,215249,107373,322
R
−33.0%
106,584212,475320,975
R
−31.0%
68,021134,011212,989
R
−25.3%
75,023125,971201,535
R
−22.2%
71,654112,710184,892
D
+4.9%
75,91268,611147,574
D
+3.0%
60,66456,976121,572
R
−13.3%
42,35455,55599,261
R
−38.4%
14,25935,67755,846
R
−51.0%
8,58628,26138,591
R
−16.5%
8,04311,30119,754
D
+21.5%
6,9533,48016,173
R
−18.6%
4,9117,37613,227
R
−9.7%
4,8675,94011,114
R
−12.1%
3,9725,0919,250
R
−20.8%
1,3852,1613,723
D
+12.4%
1,7561,3533,243
No data
No data
No data
No data

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024D56.2%38.7%8,381,397
2022D51.7%37.7%5,848,556
2018D62.0%28.6%6,055,151
2016D61.3%22.1%7,800,725
2012D62.1%21.3%7,116,628
2010D64.0%26.0%4,763,899
2006D57.4%25.8%4,700,632
2004D58.9%21.8%7,447,818
2000D51.2%39.1%6,959,662
1998D47.8%33.7%4,989,877
1994D47.5%32.1%5,328,486
1992D41.6%37.5%7,078,805
1988D64.7%27.9%6,040,980
1986R38.4%45.3%4,484,859
1982D62.2%28.5%4,967,729
1980D43.5%37.8%6,014,914
1976D48.6%37.9%6,666,875

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Italian
13.3%
Irish
9.4%
German
5.7%
American
3.5%
Polish
3.1%
English
1.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
62.6%
speak English only
Spanish16.3%
Other Indo-European11.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander8.1%
Other languages1.6%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
42.6%
Non-Christian
10.3%
Other Christian
3.5%
Mainline Protestant
2.0%
Methodist
1.3%
Baptist
1.0%
Pentecostal & Holiness
0.9%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 38.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Covering Nassau County's North Shore suburbs, NY-3 has become a closely watched bellwether as cost-of-living pressures and public safety concerns reshaped voting patterns among its largely middle-class, college-educated electorate.

The district's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached twenty-five points in 2000; the Republican margin reached fifty-one points in 1920. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Its demographics — a population of 997,104, a 49% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $130,029 — situate the district close to national averages on several dimensions.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 3, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/3603/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 3, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 3, New York voted Democratic by 1.0 points (D+1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 458,000 votes cast, 227,988 went Democratic and 223,604 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 3, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 3, New York as a "Tossup" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 15 times, Republican 19 times, and other 0 times.
When did Congressional District 3, New York last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 3, New York voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Congressional District 3, New York?
Congressional District 3, New York has a population of 997,104 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 3, New York?
Median household income in Congressional District 3, New York is $130,029 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Congressional District 3, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 3, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 19 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.