HarrisDemocratic21.1%21,251TrumpRepublican78.0%78,629OtherAll other candidates0.9%909
R+56.9- Lead
- 57,378
- Total
- 100,789
- vs nation
- R+55.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate senate district
Tennessee 15th State Senate District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic22.7%21,537TrumpRepublican75.9%72,129OtherAll other candidates1.5%1,396
R+53.2- Lead
- 50,592
- Total
- 95,062
- vs nation
- R+57.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic22.2%17,255TrumpRepublican74.2%57,636OtherAll other candidates3.6%2,827
R+52.0- Lead
- 40,381
- Total
- 77,718
- vs nation
- R+54.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic29.8%21,942RomneyRepublican68.5%50,368OtherAll other candidates1.6%1,201
R+38.7- Lead
- 28,426
- Total
- 73,511
- vs nation
- R+42.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic35.1%27,065McCainRepublican63.1%48,682OtherAll other candidates1.8%1,376
R+28.0- Lead
- 21,617
- Total
- 77,123
- vs nation
- R+35.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic41.8%31,291BushRepublican57.4%42,935OtherAll other candidates0.8%579
R+15.6- Lead
- 11,644
- Total
- 74,805
- vs nation
- R+13.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic50.4%32,007BushRepublican47.9%30,380OtherAll other candidates1.7%1,076
D+2.6- Lead
- 1,627
- Total
- 63,463
- vs nation
- D+2.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic50.3%28,026DoleRepublican41.2%22,992OtherAll other candidates8.5%4,733
D+9.0- Lead
- 5,034
- Total
- 55,751
- vs nation
- D+0.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+56.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 206,0392024 5-year
- Population density
- 87 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 2,356 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $58,9892024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+64.3 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 12, TN · twin score 98.5
presidential history
Party record book
Tennessee 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
82.2%
5,747 votes · D+64.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 73.1%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
78.0%
78,629 votes · R+56.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 75.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
32,007votes
50.4% of the vote · D+2.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 31,291 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
78,629votes
78.0% of the vote · R+56.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 72,129 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+54.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+28.8 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +36.3 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+57.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+53.2 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +55.5 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RPaul BaileyState Senate · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 20.5%18,412 | 79.5%71,522 | 89,934 |
| 2020 | R | 22.0%18,269 | 78.0%64,922 | 83,191 |
Its Republican presidential margin was R+56.9 in 2024 and R+27.9 in 2008. The district had about 213,000 residents, 90.6% White alone in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 64.3 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 56.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 56.9 points.
A population of 206,039, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,989 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 12 and State Senate District 6.
Political twins — state-senate districts
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State Senate District 12
Tennessee
98.5twin score
2012–2024 trajectory
State Senate District 6
Virginia
98.5twin score
2012–2024 trajectory
State Senate District 16
Tennessee
98.1twin score
2008–2024 trajectory
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tennessee 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/47015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Places within Tennessee 15th State Senate District
Frequently asked questions
How did Tennessee 15th State Senate District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tennessee 15th State Senate District voted Republican by 56.9 points (R+56.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 100,789 votes cast, 21,251 went Democratic and 78,629 went Republican.
When did Tennessee 15th State Senate District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tennessee 15th State Senate District voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in Tennessee 15th State Senate District?
Tennessee 15th State Senate District has a population of 206,039 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tennessee 15th State Senate District?
Median household income in Tennessee 15th State Senate District is $58,989 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Tennessee 15th State Senate District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tennessee 15th State Senate District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 28 went Democratic and 10 went Republican.