- Lead
- 3,703
- Total
- 23,260
- vs nation
- R+14.4
Maryland State Legislative Subdistrict 38A
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,958
- Total
- 22,991
- vs nation
- R+17.3
- Lead
- 2,865
- Total
- 22,261
- vs nation
- R+15.0
- Lead
- 442
- Total
- 22,757
- vs nation
- R+5.8
- Lead
- 612
- Total
- 22,323
- vs nation
- R+10.0
- Lead
- 2,068
- Total
- 20,329
- vs nation
- R+7.7
- Lead
- 627
- Total
- 17,048
- vs nation
- D+3.2
- Lead
- 1,364
- Total
- 14,962
- vs nation
- D+0.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+15.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 48,1932024 5-year
- Population density
- 73 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 663 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $70,0042024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 30.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+19.9 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+38.3 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 10, NC · twin score 80.6
presidential history
Party record book
Maryland State Legislative Subdistrict 38A · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
59.9%
3,332 votes · D+19.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 59.1%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
68.7%
6,909 votes · R+38.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 66.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
11,023votes
48.4% of the vote · R+1.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 10,736 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
13,184votes
56.7% of the vote · R+15.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 12,774 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+27.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+2.5 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +22.8 pts
Republican
Alf Landon1936
+24.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+0.3 · U.S. D+24.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +17.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Subdistrict 38A covers a largely rural stretch of Western Maryland where Republican presidential candidates have carried the vote by double-digit margins, reflecting broader demographic and economic patterns common to the region's small towns and agricultural communities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.9 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 38.3 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.9 points.
A population of 48,193, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,004 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 10 and State House District 136.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Maryland State Legislative Subdistrict 38A. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/2438A/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.