HarrisDemocratic52.0%2,944TrumpRepublican45.5%2,574KennedyIndependent1.7%97
D+6.5- Lead
- 370
- Total
- 5,657
- vs nation
- D+8.0
- Turnout
- 47.6%
Akashiccounty
Clay County, SD
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 47.6% of 12,183 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic54.1%3,083TrumpRepublican43.1%2,456JorgensenLibertarian2.8%159
D+11.0- Lead
- 627
- Total
- 5,698
- vs nation
- D+6.6
- Turnout
- 51.2%
ClintonDemocratic51.4%2,608TrumpRepublican41.6%2,109JohnsonLibertarian5.8%295
D+9.8- Lead
- 499
- Total
- 5,069
- vs nation
- D+7.8
- Turnout
- 45.9%
ObamaDemocratic56.5%2,955RomneyRepublican41.0%2,147OtherAll other candidates2.5%132
D+15.4- Lead
- 808
- Total
- 5,234
- vs nation
- D+11.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic61.0%3,808McCainRepublican36.8%2,296OtherAll other candidates2.2%138
D+24.2- Lead
- 1,512
- Total
- 6,242
- vs nation
- D+17.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic54.0%3,315BushRepublican43.9%2,692OtherAll other candidates2.1%129
D+10.2- Lead
- 623
- Total
- 6,136
- vs nation
- D+12.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic51.7%2,638BushRepublican46.3%2,363OtherAll other candidates2.0%104
D+5.4- Lead
- 275
- Total
- 5,105
- vs nation
- D+4.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic53.5%2,980DoleRepublican36.0%2,008PerotReform9.1%505
D+17.4- Lead
- 972
- Total
- 5,572
- vs nation
- D+8.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+6.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 15,2192024 5-year
- Median household income
- $56,8502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.2 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Story County, IA · twin score 92.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 47.6%5,801 participants ÷ 12,183 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +10.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 37.2%–40.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,206 | 11,352 | 45.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,644 | 11,246 | 41.3% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,768 | 11,273 | 51.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,862 | 11,936 | 40.7% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,801 | 12,183 | 47.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
21 precincts · 5,657 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -0303 | 450 | 600 | 32 | 1,082 | 41.6% | 55.5% | R+13.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -S1S1 | 498 | 335 | 19 | 852 | 58.5% | 39.3% | D+19.1 |
| Precinct -W1W1 | 398 | 270 | 22 | 690 | 57.7% | 39.1% | D+18.6 |
| Precinct -S2S2 | 391 | 212 | 6 | 609 | 64.2% | 34.8% | D+29.4 |
| Precinct -W2W2 | 241 | 184 | 11 | 436 | 55.3% | 42.2% | D+13.1 |
| Precinct -0101 | 118 | 309 | 7 | 434 | 27.2% | 71.2% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -E1E1 | 217 | 184 | 7 | 408 | 53.2% | 45.1% | D+8.1 |
| Precinct -0202 | 119 | 253 | 12 | 384 | 31.0% | 65.9% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -C1C1 | 269 | 91 | 8 | 368 | 73.1% | 24.7% | D+48.4 |
| Precinct -C2C2 | 124 | 73 | 9 | 206 | 60.2% | 35.4% | D+24.8 |
| Precinct -E2E2 | 119 | 63 | 6 | 188 | 63.3% | 33.5% | D+29.8 |
| VTD-precinct W01W1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-precinct W02W2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-precinct W03W3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Central 2C2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Central C-1C1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Northeast - NE246_46027VTDNE2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Northwest - NW146_46027VTDNW1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Northwest - NW246_46027VTDNW2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Southeast - SE-146_46027VTDSE1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VTD-Vermillion precinct Southeast - SE-246_46027VTDSE2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −44.1% |
| 1896 | −7.6% |
| 1900 | −14.2% |
| 1904 | −61.2% |
| 1908 | −22.7% |
| 1912 | +41.0% |
| 1916 | +9.2% |
| 1920 | −32.1% |
| 1924 | −27.6% |
| 1928 | −27.1% |
| 1932 | +33.0% |
| 1936 | +27.4% |
| 1940 | −4.2% |
| 1944 | −4.6% |
| 1948 | −3.4% |
| 1952 | −40.1% |
| 1956 | −15.4% |
| 1960 | −19.2% |
| 1964 | +18.1% |
| 1968 | −5.5% |
| 1972 | +5.7% |
| 1976 | −1.0% |
| 1980 | −11.6% |
| 1984 | −6.0% |
| 1988 | +10.6% |
| 1992 | +15.9% |
| 1996 | +17.4% |
| 2000 | +5.4% |
| 2004 | +10.2% |
| 2008 | +24.2% |
| 2012 | +15.4% |
| 2016 | +9.8% |
| 2020 | +11.0% |
| 2024 | +6.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 42.8%2,907 | 57.2%3,878 | 6,785 |
| 2020 | R | 0.0%0 | 100.0%3,750 | 3,750 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+6.0
Presidential vote · 2024D+6.5
Clay County, SD registers Republican but votes Democratic — a 13-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
8,312 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−182 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −532 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,669 in average income, against $82,045 for residents who stayed — 44% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+24.4 on average — 31 points more Republican-leaning than Clay County, SD itself (D+6.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Minnehaha County, SD50R+12.7
- Yankton County, SD34R+25.5
- Union County, SD31R+40.7
- Lincoln County, SD20R+26.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Minnehaha County, SD84
- Yankton County, SD53
- Lincoln County, SD39
- Woodbury County, IA30
- Union County, SD27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +81 |
| 2012 | −8 |
| 2013 | −217 |
| 2014 | −119 |
| 2015 | −150 |
| 2016 | +64 |
| 2017 | −19 |
| 2018 | −89 |
| 2019 | +38 |
| 2021 | +119 |
| 2022 | +59 |
| 2023 | +80 |
| 2024 | −189 |
| 2025 | −182 |
Home to the University of South Dakota in Vermillion, Clay County tilts Democratic in a deeply red state — a pattern driven largely by student population and academic employment concentrated in a single small city.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.0 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 61.2 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 6.5 points.
A population of 15,219, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,850 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Story County and Blue Earth County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Story County
Iowa
92.7twin score
median age2016–2024 trajectory≠ % Asian
Blue Earth County
Minnesota
89.0twin score
2004–2024 trajectory≠ median age
Johnson County
Iowa
88.2twin score
2004–2016 trajectory≠ 2024 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Clay County, South Dakota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/46027/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Clay County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Clay County, South Dakota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Clay County, South Dakota voted Democratic by 6.5 points (D+6.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 5,657 votes cast, 2,944 went Democratic and 2,574 went Republican.
When did Clay County, South Dakota last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Clay County, South Dakota voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Clay County, South Dakota?
Clay County, South Dakota has a population of 15,219 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Clay County, South Dakota?
Median household income in Clay County, South Dakota is $56,850 — below the national median of $80,734. The South Dakota state median is $75,081.
What is the political history of Clay County, South Dakota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Clay County, South Dakota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.