- Lead
- 1,744
- Total
- 2,752
- vs nation
- R+61.9
- Turnout
- 71.2%
McHenry County, ND
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 71.2% of 3,912 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,800
- Total
- 3,003
- vs nation
- R+64.4
- Turnout
- 68.5%
- Lead
- 1,560
- Total
- 2,820
- vs nation
- R+57.4
- Turnout
- 64.6%
- Lead
- 735
- Total
- 2,712
- vs nation
- R+31.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 393
- Total
- 2,416
- vs nation
- R+23.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 714
- Total
- 2,820
- vs nation
- R+22.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 794
- Total
- 2,737
- vs nation
- R+29.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 91
- Total
- 2,756
- vs nation
- R+11.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+63.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 5,2072024 5-year
- Median household income
- $80,7332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 94.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+45.7 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.2 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Renville County, ND · twin score 94.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.2%2,787 participants ÷ 3,912 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.5 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -7.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 56.8%–60.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,899 | 4,485 | 64.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,603 | 4,492 | 57.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,024 | 4,416 | 68.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,169 | 4,017 | 54.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 2,787 | 3,912 | 71.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
16 precincts · 2,752 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -4747 | 188 | 678 | 13 | 879 | 21.4% | 77.1% | R+55.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -1818 | 88 | 494 | 12 | 594 | 14.8% | 83.2% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct -4141 | 35 | 251 | 7 | 293 | 11.9% | 85.7% | R+73.7 |
| Precinct -6262 | 32 | 196 | 2 | 230 | 13.9% | 85.2% | R+71.3 |
| Precinct -5858 | 37 | 180 | 4 | 221 | 16.7% | 81.4% | R+64.7 |
| Precinct -1616 | 19 | 173 | 3 | 195 | 9.7% | 88.7% | R+79.0 |
| Precinct -5555 | 48 | 140 | 3 | 191 | 25.1% | 73.3% | R+48.2 |
| Precinct -2727 | 32 | 111 | 6 | 149 | 21.5% | 74.5% | R+53.0 |
| McHenry 07-16 Voting District16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McHenry 07-18 Voting District18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McHenry 07-27 Voting District27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McHenry 07-41 Voting District41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McHenry 07-47 Voting District47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McHenry 07-55 Voting District55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McHenry 07-58 Voting District58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McHenry 07-62 Voting District62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −64.2% |
| 1896 | −13.3% |
| 1900 | −43.9% |
| 1904 | −50.9% |
| 1908 | −15.1% |
| 1912 | +14.8% |
| 1916 | +28.2% |
| 1920 | −56.3% |
| 1924 | −31.1% |
| 1928 | −6.9% |
| 1932 | +45.7% |
| 1936 | +27.2% |
| 1940 | −27.0% |
| 1944 | −23.6% |
| 1948 | −17.7% |
| 1952 | −54.3% |
| 1956 | −24.6% |
| 1960 | −9.8% |
| 1964 | +20.9% |
| 1968 | −15.4% |
| 1972 | −27.9% |
| 1976 | −1.2% |
| 1980 | −48.3% |
| 1984 | −31.6% |
| 1988 | −6.2% |
| 1992 | −4.4% |
| 1996 | −3.3% |
| 2000 | −29.0% |
| 2004 | −25.3% |
| 2008 | −16.3% |
| 2012 | −27.1% |
| 2016 | −55.3% |
| 2020 | −59.9% |
| 2024 | −63.4% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−22 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +96 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $78,353 in average income, against $80,181 for residents who stayed — 2% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+47.0 on average — 16 points more Democratic-leaning than McHenry County, ND itself (R+63.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Ward County, ND34R+47.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Ward County, ND63
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +98 |
| 2012 | +275 |
| 2013 | +91 |
| 2014 | +73 |
| 2015 | +3 |
| 2016 | −18 |
| 2017 | −96 |
| 2018 | −93 |
| 2019 | −67 |
| 2021 | −45 |
| 2022 | −26 |
| 2023 | −59 |
| 2024 | −18 |
| 2025 | −22 |
With under 6,000 residents spread across a vast agricultural landscape, McHenry County has delivered lopsided Republican presidential margins for decades, hitting R+63.4 in 2024 — a pattern typical of the state's sparsely populated northern plains counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 45.7 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 64.2 points in 1892. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 63.4 points.
A population of 5,207, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,733 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Renville County and McLean County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
McHenry County, North Dakota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/38049/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.