HarrisDemocratic21.6%1,747TrumpRepublican76.7%6,217KennedyIndependent1.2%98
R+55.2- Lead
- 4,470
- Total
- 8,103
- vs nation
- R+53.7
- Turnout
- 55.2%
Akashiccounty
Jay County, IN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 55.2% of 14,899 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic22.8%1,926TrumpRepublican75.2%6,361JorgensenLibertarian2.0%169
R+52.4- Lead
- 4,435
- Total
- 8,461
- vs nation
- R+56.9
- Turnout
- 55.8%
ClintonDemocratic23.5%1,889TrumpRepublican71.0%5,697JohnsonLibertarian4.7%376
R+47.5- Lead
- 3,808
- Total
- 8,022
- vs nation
- R+49.6
- Turnout
- 52.8%
ObamaDemocratic38.8%3,063RomneyRepublican58.8%4,645JohnsonLibertarian2.4%191
R+20.0- Lead
- 1,582
- Total
- 7,901
- vs nation
- R+23.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic45.1%3,748McCainRepublican52.9%4,401OtherAll other candidates2.0%166
R+7.9- Lead
- 653
- Total
- 8,315
- vs nation
- R+15.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic33.3%2,740BushRepublican65.9%5,427OtherAll other candidates0.8%65
R+32.6- Lead
- 2,687
- Total
- 8,232
- vs nation
- R+30.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic39.4%3,167BushRepublican58.4%4,687OtherAll other candidates2.2%176
R+18.9- Lead
- 1,520
- Total
- 8,030
- vs nation
- R+19.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic41.9%3,356DoleRepublican44.7%3,584PerotReform12.7%1,022
R+2.8- Lead
- 228
- Total
- 8,017
- vs nation
- R+11.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+55.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 20,2292024 5-year
- Median household income
- $54,9692024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 92.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+23.9 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Jennings County, IN · twin score 95.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 55.2%8,231 participants ÷ 14,899 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -5.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 35.8%–46.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,205 | 15,534 | 52.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 8,538 | 15,457 | 55.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 8,578 | 15,384 | 55.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 5,499 | 15,138 | 36.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 8,231 | 14,899 | 55.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
38 precincts · 8,115 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -REDKEYREDKEY | 189 | 542 | 18 | 749 | 25.2% | 72.4% | R+47.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -WAYNE 04WAYNE 04 | 177 | 498 | 5 | 680 | 26.0% | 73.2% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct -WAYNE 07WAYNE 07 | 153 | 451 | 11 | 615 | 24.9% | 73.3% | R+48.5 |
| Precinct -WAYNE 03WAYNE 03 | 138 | 443 | 16 | 597 | 23.1% | 74.2% | R+51.1 |
| Precinct -WAYNE 02WAYNE 02 | 158 | 389 | 16 | 563 | 28.1% | 69.1% | R+41.0 |
| Precinct -WAYNE 01WAYNE 01 | 133 | 382 | 12 | 527 | 25.2% | 72.5% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct -GREENEGREENE | 104 | 379 | 16 | 499 | 20.8% | 76.0% | R+55.1 |
| Precinct -DUNKIRK 03DUNKIRK 03 | 129 | 337 | 3 | 469 | 27.5% | 71.9% | R+44.3 |
| Precinct -PENNPENN | 73 | 383 | 9 | 465 | 15.7% | 82.4% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -PIKEPIKE | 80 | 349 | 7 | 436 | 18.3% | 80.0% | R+61.7 |
| Precinct -BEARCREEKBEARCREEK | 61 | 368 | 6 | 435 | 14.0% | 84.6% | R+70.6 |
| Precinct -DUNKIRK 01DUNKIRK 01 | 114 | 287 | 12 | 413 | 27.6% | 69.5% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -JEFFERSONJEFFERSON | 49 | 277 | 5 | 331 | 14.8% | 83.7% | R+68.9 |
| Precinct -JACKSONJACKSON | 54 | 250 | 3 | 307 | 17.6% | 81.4% | R+63.8 |
| Precinct -NOBLENOBLE | 45 | 254 | 3 | 302 | 14.9% | 84.1% | R+69.2 |
| Precinct -MADISONMADISON | 39 | 238 | 3 | 280 | 13.9% | 85.0% | R+71.1 |
| Precinct -WABASHWABASH | 17 | 217 | 1 | 235 | 7.2% | 92.3% | R+85.1 |
| Precinct -KNOXKNOX | 34 | 173 | 5 | 212 | 16.0% | 81.6% | R+65.6 |
| BEARCREEK18_1807500010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DUNKIRK 118_1807500020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DUNKIRK 318_1807500030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREENE18_1807500040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON18_1807500050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JEFFERSON18_1807500060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KNOX18_1807500070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MADISON18_1807500080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NOBLE18_1807500090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PENN18_1807500110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PIKE18_1807500120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH REDKEY18_1807500130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WABASH18_1807500140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE 118_1807500150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE 218_1807500160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE 318_1807500170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE 418_1807500180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE 518_1807500190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE 618_1807500200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE 718_1807500210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −1.0% |
| 1896 | +2.8% |
| 1900 | −1.3% |
| 1904 | −13.0% |
| 1908 | +1.6% |
| 1912 | +23.9% |
| 1916 | −0.1% |
| 1920 | −11.7% |
| 1924 | −8.6% |
| 1928 | −11.4% |
| 1932 | +14.3% |
| 1936 | +10.9% |
| 1940 | +0.6% |
| 1944 | −9.0% |
| 1948 | −1.0% |
| 1952 | −20.3% |
| 1956 | −19.2% |
| 1960 | −14.1% |
| 1964 | +20.7% |
| 1968 | −10.9% |
| 1972 | −28.9% |
| 1976 | −5.5% |
| 1980 | −22.7% |
| 1984 | −30.4% |
| 1988 | −25.0% |
| 1992 | −4.5% |
| 1996 | −2.8% |
| 2000 | −18.9% |
| 2004 | −32.6% |
| 2008 | −7.9% |
| 2012 | −20.0% |
| 2016 | −47.5% |
| 2020 | −52.4% |
| 2024 | −55.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 36 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 21.0%1,568 | 79.0%5,897 | 7,465 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 12,701 |
| 2018 | 12,002 |
| 2020 | 12,421 |
| 2022 | 12,200 |
| 2024 | 11,998 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−170 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,844 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $42,023 in average income, against $64,130 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+37.5 on average — 18 points more Democratic-leaning than Jay County, IN itself (R+55.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Delaware County, IN71R+15.8
- Adams County, IN40R+52.6
- Randolph County, IN38R+53.6
- Blackford County, IN26R+50.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Delaware County, IN71
- Randolph County, IN47
- Adams County, IN34
- Blackford County, IN31
- Mercer County, OH25
- Wells County, IN24
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +29 |
| 2012 | −51 |
| 2013 | −137 |
| 2014 | −196 |
| 2015 | −85 |
| 2016 | −187 |
| 2017 | −174 |
| 2018 | −185 |
| 2019 | −334 |
| 2021 | −201 |
| 2022 | −163 |
| 2023 | −84 |
| 2024 | +94 |
| 2025 | −170 |
Jay County's R+55.2 margin in 2024 places it among Indiana's most heavily one-sided counties, reflecting the rural, small-manufacturing demographic pattern common to the eastern part of the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 23.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 55.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 55.2 points.
A population of 20,229, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,969 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Jennings County and Randolph County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Jennings County
Indiana
95.9twin score
elasticity12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Randolph County
Indiana
95.4twin score
elasticity12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectory
Blackford County
Indiana
93.3twin score
elasticity12-yr trendcollege share≠ Irish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Jay County, Indiana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/18075/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Jay County
Indiana at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Jay County, Indiana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Jay County, Indiana voted Republican by 55.2 points (R+55.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,103 votes cast, 1,747 went Democratic and 6,217 went Republican.
When did Jay County, Indiana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Jay County, Indiana voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Jay County, Indiana?
Jay County, Indiana has a population of 20,229 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Jay County, Indiana?
Median household income in Jay County, Indiana is $54,969 — below the national median of $80,734. The Indiana state median is $71,957.
What is the political history of Jay County, Indiana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Jay County, Indiana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.