- Lead
- 813
- Total
- 7,529
- vs nation
- R+9.3
- Turnout
- 63.4%
Alamosa County, CO
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.4% of 12,111 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 54
- Total
- 7,808
- vs nation
- R+5.1
- Turnout
- 69.3%
- Lead
- 143
- Total
- 6,939
- vs nation
- Even
- Turnout
- 63.1%
- Lead
- 1,106
- Total
- 6,715
- vs nation
- D+12.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 886
- Total
- 6,286
- vs nation
- D+6.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 162
- Total
- 6,279
- vs nation
- R+0.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 402
- Total
- 5,659
- vs nation
- R+7.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 292
- Total
- 4,943
- vs nation
- R+2.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+10.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 16,5812024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,3972024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 45.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 48.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43.9 in 1916MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+29.5 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Willacy County, TX · twin score 91.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 63.4%7,674 participants ÷ 12,111 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.5%–49.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 7,189 | 11,397 | 63.1% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 6,225 | 11,700 | 53.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 7,968 | 11,497 | 69.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,127 | 12,139 | 50.5% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 7,674 | 12,111 | 63.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
16 precincts · 7,529 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -30662020043066202004 | 590 | 907 | 40 | 1,537 | 38.4% | 59.0% | R+20.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -30662020033066202003 | 627 | 680 | 58 | 1,365 | 45.9% | 49.8% | R+3.9 |
| Precinct -30662020073066202007 | 568 | 745 | 34 | 1,347 | 42.2% | 55.3% | R+13.1 |
| Precinct -30662020083066202008 | 203 | 497 | 14 | 714 | 28.4% | 69.6% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct -30662020063066202006 | 366 | 285 | 32 | 683 | 53.6% | 41.7% | D+11.9 |
| Precinct -30662020053066202005 | 188 | 469 | 15 | 672 | 28.0% | 69.8% | R+41.8 |
| Precinct -30662020013066202001 | 378 | 234 | 18 | 630 | 60.0% | 37.1% | D+22.9 |
| Precinct -30662020023066202002 | 324 | 240 | 17 | 581 | 55.8% | 41.3% | D+14.5 |
| Alamosa 108_0800302001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alamosa 208_0800302002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alamosa 308_0800302003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alamosa 408_0800302004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alamosa 508_0800302005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alamosa 608_0800302006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alamosa 708_0800302007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alamosa 808_0800302008 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1916–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1916 | +43.9% |
| 1920 | −6.3% |
| 1924 | −15.4% |
| 1928 | −17.2% |
| 1932 | +23.6% |
| 1936 | +39.2% |
| 1940 | +4.7% |
| 1944 | −3.4% |
| 1948 | +10.2% |
| 1952 | −25.1% |
| 1956 | −24.9% |
| 1960 | −11.3% |
| 1964 | +25.0% |
| 1968 | −17.0% |
| 1972 | −29.5% |
| 1976 | −11.3% |
| 1980 | −16.2% |
| 1984 | −26.2% |
| 1988 | −8.8% |
| 1992 | +7.7% |
| 1996 | +5.9% |
| 2000 | −7.1% |
| 2004 | −2.6% |
| 2008 | +14.1% |
| 2012 | +16.5% |
| 2016 | +2.1% |
| 2020 | −0.7% |
| 2024 | −10.8% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Alamosa County, CO registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 11-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10,056 | 3,776 | 2,882 | 3,226 | 172 |
| 2018 | 10,429 | 3,674 | 2,912 | 3,644 | 199 |
| 2020 | 10,993 | 3,622 | 3,050 | 4,110 | 211 |
| 2022 | 11,558 | 3,320 | 2,980 | 5,044 | 214 |
| 2024 | 12,081 | 3,107 | 3,075 | 5,610 | 289 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−15 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +120 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $48,660 in average income, against $64,084 for residents who stayed — 24% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+8.2 on average — 2.6 points more Democratic-leaning than Alamosa County, CO itself (R+10.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Rio Grande County, CO87R+23.2
- Conejos County, CO51R+17.8
- El Paso County, CO27R+9.8
- Costilla County, CO21D+14.7
- Denver County, CO21D+56.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Rio Grande County, CO58
- Conejos County, CO48
- El Paso County, CO26
- Costilla County, CO22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +85 |
| 2012 | −117 |
| 2013 | +35 |
| 2014 | −95 |
| 2015 | +9 |
| 2016 | +98 |
| 2017 | +11 |
| 2018 | +50 |
| 2019 | −93 |
| 2021 | +157 |
| 2022 | −2 |
| 2023 | +35 |
| 2024 | −38 |
| 2025 | −15 |
Alamosa County anchors Colorado's high-altitude San Luis Valley, where a majority-Hispanic population has historically leaned Democratic but shifted toward Republicans by double digits in the 2024 presidential race.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.9 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 29.5 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 10.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 10.8 points.
A population of 16,581, a 45% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,397 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Willacy County and Frio County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Alamosa County, Colorado. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/08003/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.