Manvel, Texas
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −35.9% |
| 2008 | −25.9% |
| 2012 | −36.6% |
| 2016 | −3.1% |
| 2020 | +3.0% |
| 2024 | +7.3% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 53.0%Harris3,032 | 45.7%Trump2,613 | 1.2% | D+7.3 | D+4.3 | D+8.8 | 5,716 | |
| D | 51.0%Biden2,267 | 48.0%Trump2,133 | 0.9% | D+3.0 | D+6.1 | R+1.4 | 4,441 | |
| R | 46.5%Clinton1,189 | 49.6%Trump1,268 | 3.9% | R+3.1 | D+33.5 | R+5.2 | 2,556 | |
| R | 31.0%Obama569 | 67.6%Romney1,241 | 1.4% | R+36.6 | R+10.7 | R+40.5 | 1,835 | |
| R | 36.8%Obama607 | 62.7%McCain1,035 | 0.5% | R+25.9 | D+10.0 | R+33.2 | 1,651 | |
| R | 31.2%Kerry412 | 67.1%Bush886 | 1.7% | R+35.9 | — | R+33.5 | 1,320 |
Manvel's population roughly tripled between 2010 and 2020 as Houston's southern sprawl reached Brazoria County, making it a closely watched bellwether for how rapid suburban growth reshapes voting patterns in exurban Texas.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 7.3 points in 2024 and a Republican high of 36.6 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.3 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.3 points.
A population of 14,758, a 39% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $118,808 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Red Oak and Snellville.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Manvel, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/4846500/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.