Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic32.9%484TrumpRepublican64.3%944OtherAll other candidates2.8%41
R+31.3
Lead
460
Total
1,469
vs nation
R+29.8
BidenDemocratic42.8%674TrumpRepublican52.0%818OtherAll other candidates5.1%81
R+9.2
Lead
144
Total
1,573
vs nation
R+13.6
ClintonDemocratic33.4%449TrumpRepublican56.3%758OtherAll other candidates10.3%139
R+23.0
Lead
309
Total
1,346
vs nation
R+25.0
ObamaDemocratic41.3%559RomneyRepublican55.8%755OtherAll other candidates3.0%40
R+14.5
Lead
196
Total
1,354
vs nation
R+18.3
ObamaDemocratic47.0%726McCainRepublican48.4%748OtherAll other candidates4.5%70
R+1.4
Lead
22
Total
1,544
vs nation
R+8.7
KerryDemocratic39.7%556BushRepublican59.1%828OtherAll other candidates1.1%16
R+19.4
Lead
272
Total
1,400
vs nation
R+17.0
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+31.3MIT Election Lab
Population
3,0062024 5-year
Population density
1,431 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
2.1 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$73,0472024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
95.2%2024 5-year
Black
0.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
1.7%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+31.3 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
70.6%1,810 participants ÷ 2,563 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+6.9 ptsHigh-turnout, durable
Drop-off vs state
-5.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
63.7%–64.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
52.0%
57.7%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,810
2,563 ± 231
70.6%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
1,450
2,513 ± 257
57.7%
Audited
E/D
1,593
2,467 ± 203
64.6%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
1,245
2,392 ± 152
52.0%
Audited
E/A
1,372
2,351 ± 197
58.4%
Audited
E/A
1,354
2,242
60.4%
Derived
—
1,544
2,214
69.7%
Derived
—
1,400
2,186 extrapolated
64.0%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Lead, SD · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
47.0%
726 votes · R+1.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 42.8%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
64.3%
944 votes · R+31.3
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 59.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
726votes
47.0% of the vote · R+1.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 674 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
944votes
64.3% of the vote · R+31.3
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 828 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
−8.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+1.4 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −13.6 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+29.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+31.3 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +25.0 pts
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
Lead · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Lawrence County, South Dakota, the county containing Lead — Lead’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Lead, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Lead's economy was anchored for a century by the Homestake Mine, one of the deepest gold mines in North America; its closure in 2002 and conversion to a physics research facility marked a rare industrial-to-science transition that continues to influence local economic and political priorities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 31.3 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 22.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.3 points.
A population of 3,006, a 95% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,047 describe the city.
In 2024, Lead, South Dakota voted Republican by 31.3 points (R+31.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,469 votes cast, 484 went Democratic and 944 went Republican.
How many people live in Lead, South Dakota?
Lead, South Dakota has a population of 3,006 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lead, South Dakota?
Median household income in Lead, South Dakota is $73,047 — below the national median of $80,734. The South Dakota state median is $75,081.
What is the political history of Lead, South Dakota?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Lead, South Dakota from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
