Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
45.4%1,302 participants ÷ 2,871 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+21.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
-5.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
24.4%–31.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
40.4%
34.1%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,302
2,871 ± 452
45.4%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
858
2,513 ± 486
34.1%
Audited
E/D
1,399
2,538 ± 422
55.1%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
1,118
2,764 ± 370
40.4%
Audited
E/D
1,244
2,671 ± 366
46.6%
Audited
E/D
996
2,791
35.7%
Derived
—
1,048
2,995
35.0%
Derived
—
911
3,199 extrapolated
28.5%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
West Modesto, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
64.9%
646 votes · D+32.7
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 63.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
47.4%
600 votes · D+2.8
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 44.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
772votes
55.5% of the vote · D+13.7
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 702 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
600votes
47.4% of the vote · D+2.8
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 581 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+28.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+32.7 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +21.8 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
−4.3pts R vs U.S.
Place D+2.8 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · −9.3 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
West Modesto · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Stanislaus County, California, the county containing West Modesto — West Modesto’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in West Modesto, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
West Modesto's dense, majority-Hispanic population and median household incomes well below the state average make it a reliable indicator of how economic pressures shape turnout in California's Central Valley.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.7 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 10.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 2.8 points.
A population of 5,978, a 16% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,440 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of August and Pearsall.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, West Modesto, California voted Democratic by 2.8 points (D+2.8), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,267 votes cast, 636 went Democratic and 600 went Republican.
How many people live in West Modesto, California?
West Modesto, California has a population of 5,978 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in West Modesto, California?
Median household income in West Modesto, California is $61,440 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of West Modesto, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in West Modesto, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
