HarrisDemocratic44.7%8,079TrumpRepublican52.6%9,501OtherAll other candidates2.7%482
R+7.9- Lead
- 1,422
- Total
- 18,062
- vs nation
- R+6.4
- Turnout
- —
Akashiccity
San Juan Capistrano, CA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic47.4%9,034TrumpRepublican50.9%9,697OtherAll other candidates1.7%330
R+3.5- Lead
- 663
- Total
- 19,061
- vs nation
- R+7.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic42.6%6,677TrumpRepublican52.3%8,196OtherAll other candidates5.1%806
R+9.7- Lead
- 1,519
- Total
- 15,679
- vs nation
- R+11.8
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic37.2%5,551RomneyRepublican60.3%8,996OtherAll other candidates2.5%371
R+23.1- Lead
- 3,445
- Total
- 14,918
- vs nation
- R+26.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic42.8%5,831McCainRepublican56.9%7,750OtherAll other candidates0.3%35
R+14.1- Lead
- 1,919
- Total
- 13,616
- vs nation
- R+21.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic33.6%4,486BushRepublican64.9%8,665OtherAll other candidates1.6%210
R+31.3- Lead
- 4,179
- Total
- 13,361
- vs nation
- R+28.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+7.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 35,0952024 5-year
- Median household income
- $129,4572024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 53.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 36.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Republican margin
- R+31.3 in 2004MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Laguna Hills, CA · twin score 91.0
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −31.3% |
| 2008 | −14.1% |
| 2012 | −23.1% |
| 2016 | −9.7% |
| 2020 | −3.5% |
| 2024 | −7.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 44.7%Harris8,079 | 52.6%Trump9,501 | 2.7% | R+7.9 | R+4.4 | R+6.4 | 18,062 | |
| R | 47.4%Biden9,034 | 50.9%Trump9,697 | 1.7% | R+3.5 | D+6.2 | R+7.9 | 19,061 | |
| R | 42.6%Clinton6,677 | 52.3%Trump8,196 | 5.1% | R+9.7 | D+13.4 | R+11.8 | 15,679 | |
| R | 37.2%Obama5,551 | 60.3%Romney8,996 | 2.5% | R+23.1 | R+9.0 | R+26.9 | 14,918 | |
| R | 42.8%Obama5,831 | 56.9%McCain7,750 | 0.3% | R+14.1 | — | R+21.4 | 13,616 | |
| R | 33.6%Kerry4,486 | 64.9%Bush8,665 | 1.6% | R+31.3 | — | R+28.8 | 13,361 |
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 44.6%7,887 | 55.4%9,816 | 17,703 |
| 2020 | R | 45.4%8,573 | 54.6%10,312 | 18,885 |
Tucked between coastal hills in southern Orange County, San Juan Capistrano has trended more competitive as younger families joined its older, more conservative base, making it a modest but consistent bellwether for countywide shifts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 31.3 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.9 points.
A population of 35,095, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $129,457 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Laguna Hills and San Clemente.
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Laguna Hills
California
91.0twin score
12-yr trendmedian incomecollege share
San Clemente
California
88.5twin score
12-yr trend2012 marginmedian age
Mission Viejo
California
88.5twin score
12-yr trendmedian incomemedian age≠ population scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
San Juan Capistrano, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0668028/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
California at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did San Juan Capistrano, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, San Juan Capistrano, California voted Republican by 7.9 points (R+7.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 18,062 votes cast, 8,079 went Democratic and 9,501 went Republican.
How many people live in San Juan Capistrano, California?
San Juan Capistrano, California has a population of 35,095 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in San Juan Capistrano, California?
Median household income in San Juan Capistrano, California is $129,457 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of San Juan Capistrano, California?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in San Juan Capistrano, California from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.